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Spring Training Matters


wildcard

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I don't think players peak offensive until 27.  Especially when they are learning at the major league level.

This is one of those things where while there are general trends in the player population as a whole, individual players vary widely.    Nick Markakis peaked at 24.   Steve Pearce peaked at 31.   I personally think Rickard probably hasn't peaked.  

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Will you agree that defense peaks much earlier than that? 

And I would hope every player is learning at the major league level.

I'm not sure about that.   I think Joey should have a better defensive this year than last.  He has some experience in the  some the ML ball parks.  I think reading the ball, getting jumps and playing the walls is all improved with experience if a player has speed and some baseball instinct.

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I'm not sure about that.   I think Joey should have a better defensive this year than last.  He has some experience in the  some the ML ball parks.  I think reading the ball, getting jumps and playing the walls is all improved with experience if a player has speed and some baseball instinct.

Pretty sure the actual evidence disagrees with you on that (in a general sense).

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I have been jabbed all off season for saying that spring training would determine some roster spots and roles.   Now we see Rickard, Bourn, Gentry and Tavarez set up to battle for spots.  I still think ST performance matters. Both offensive and defensively.

Who was jabbing you over the fact there would be a few competitions this spring? I think anyone paying attention knew at the very least the 4th/5th outfielder spots and long man in the bullpen were open competitions this spring.

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54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I forget who it was, but someone yesterday did a good job explaining that while spring training matters, it's about more than stats.   I think where I've parted with you is your belief that Rickard could be getting starts vs. RHP early in the season if he hits them well this spring.     I'd say Rickard's spring matters as to whether he makes the team, but he's not going to play much at all vs. RHP early in the season.    Kim and Smith will get their starts, and keep their jobs if they do what they historically have done vs. RHP.    Just my opinion.

Gotta agree with you here. Although I don't think Rickard is as bad as his defensive metrics made him out to be last year, it's not like he's Kevin Kiermaier out there. I don't see any way he's getting starts over Kim or Smith against right-handers this season unless one is dinged up or particularly bad against a certain pitcher.

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53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

We will see.  Joey has to prove what he can do.  If he outhits them and plays better defense in ST it will get interesting.  Remember  he won the job last year in ST.

ST looks like it will determine jobs this year.

If you think spring training results is going to change starting positions against right-handers then I would disagree. ST is only going to determine the 4th/5th and long reliever roles barring any injuries.

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2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

If you think spring training results is going to change starting positions against right-handers then I would disagree. ST is only going to determine the 4th/5th and long reliever roles barring any injuries.

Even in that case things like players having options can take precedence.

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2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

If you think spring training results is going to change starting positions against right-handers then I would disagree. ST is only going to determine the 4th/5th and long reliever roles barring any injuries.

Tony, I don't like to disagree with you because you are normally right (no matter where you ranked Mancini).  But I think its up to Joey.   IMO he has the talent to be a leadoff hitter with a high OBP and some speed.    If he shows that, he has be play somewhere.  Smith and Kim both hit righties and not lefties ( so far).   But their range is poor.   If Joey outhits them in ST and plays better defense he gets a starting job in the outfield IMO.  Its up to Joey to show he can leverage what he did in the minors into the majors.

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7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Gotta agree with you here. Although I don't think Rickard is as bad as his defensive metrics made him out to be last year, it's not like he's Kevin Kiermaier out there. I don't see any way he's getting starts over Kim or Smith against right-handers this season unless one is dinged up or particularly bad against a certain pitcher.

I'm extremely leery of UZR and DRS. I look at Dexter Fowler and Adam Jones charts on Baseball Savant and they are damn near identical, yet Jones is rated as poor and Fowler as average.

Rickard looks like he may be the least valuable of the three but not by much.

 

Fowler: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player?player_id=451594&pos=CF&player_type=batter&season=2016&tab=defense_tab#

Jones: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player?player_id=430945&pos=CF&player_type=batter&season=2016&tab=defense_tab#

Rickard: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player?player_id=572073&pos=RF&player_type=batter&season=2016&tab=defense_tab#

 

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