Jim Henneman: Would Hyun Soo Kim Be Slowest O's Leadoff Man? No Way

[PressBoxOnline]

Watching Hyun Soo Kim bat at the top of the lineup during a few spring training games has some fans wondering whether Kim would be the slowest leadoff hitter in Orioles history. Jim Henneman says the answer is a resounding, NO!

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2017/03/06/would-hyun-soo-kim-be-slowest-leadoff-hitter-in-orioles-history

[weams]

 

[ChuckS]

Hyun gets up the line as fast if not faster than Adam Jones.  

Obviously Adam is faster and covers way more ground in the OF but Kim gets out of the box well and runs hard.  

[Can_of_corn]

36 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Hyun gets up the line as fast if not faster than Adam Jones.  

Obviously Adam is faster and covers way more ground in the OF but Kim gets out of the box well and runs hard.  

He's also left handed.

[ChuckS]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's also left handed.

Clearly.  But the criticisms stem from him being too slow to bat leadoff.  I think that's overblown since he gets up the line better than most of the team including the guy who we had in there for the majority of last year with the .310 OBP.  

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

Clearly.  But the criticisms stem from him being too slow to bat leadoff.  I think that's overblown since he gets up the line better than most of the team including the guy who we had in there for the majority of last year with the .310 OBP.  

Is there such a thing as too slow to bat leadoff?  I'd bat Sam Horn leadoff if he had a .370 OBP.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is there such a thing as too slow to bat leadoff?  I'd bat Sam Horn leadoff if he had a .370 OBP.

The Schnozz's .358 good enough?

[UpstateNYfan]

Speed is nice at the top of the order if you have a manager that believes in stealing. Buck does not, so OBP would be the next best thing. They use to say that a speedster on first lets the next batter see more fastballs. It seems as though that would be the case, but I'm not sure of the validity of that assumption. It's also nice to have a leadoff hitter see a few pitches. Kim seems to have that as a positive.

[weams]

5 hours ago, UpstateNYfan said:

Speed is nice at the top of the order if you have a manager that believes in stealing. Buck does not, so OBP would be the next best thing. They use to say that a speedster on first lets the next batter see more fastballs. It seems as though that would be the case, but I'm not sure of the validity of that assumption. It's also nice to have a leadoff hitter see a few pitches. Kim seems to have that as a positive.

Team speed means so little. Except on defense. 

[UpstateNYfan]

24 minutes ago, weams said:

Team speed means so little. Except on defense. 

So it seems. There in lies the problem, it's hard to have no speed and good D. I still enjoy aggressive base running, the single turned into a double (by speed, not poor D) and the double turned into a triple (again by speed). The base to base stuff I find tedious.

[weams]

7 minutes ago, UpstateNYfan said:

So it seems. There in lies the problem, it's hard to have no speed and good D. I still enjoy aggressive base running, the single turned into a double (by speed, not poor D) and the double turned into a triple (again by speed). The base to base stuff I find tedious.

I do know it is fun, but the subtractions negate a big part of the impact. I'll see if I can find a study on that to post. 

 

Here are a few references to outs made on bases. 

[weams]

Some good and bad stuff about primary leads.

[weams]

And a comedy of errors. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Team speed means so little. Except on defense. 

BP has a stat for baserunning runs.    It includes not only runs gained by stolen bases, but by advancing on various kinds of batted balls, etc.    According to that stat, in 2016, the top team in MLB was the Diamondbacks, at +19.4 runs, while the worst was the Tigers, at -18.4 runs.    I've looked back at the last 40 years, and the spread of 37.8 runs between best and worst is pretty typical.

The best baserunning team of the last 40 years, per BP, was the 1979 Royals, at +32.6.    The worst was the 1987 Orioles, at -33.2.     The '79 Royals stole 207 bases while being caught 76 times.   The '87 Orioles stole 69 bases while being caught 45 times.    Interestingly, for the Royals, only about 1/3 of their baserunning runs related to stolen bases; the rest came from advancing on batted balls.    Same for the '87 Orioles only more so: only about 12% of their negative value came from their stolen base record.

And what of the 2016 Orioles?   Per BP, they were at +1.0.    They cost themselves 2 runs on stolen base efforts, and made up for it by being slightly above average in other categories.

BB-ref has its own version of Baserunning Runs, in which the 2016 Orioles ranked a -2.    On that measure, the '87 Orioles ranked -18.

Bottom line, I think you are right that speed on the basepaths is not a very high impact attribute.

[UpstateNYfan]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

BP has a stat for baserunning runs.    It includes not only runs gained by stolen bases, but by advancing on various kinds of batted balls, etc.    According to that stat, in 2016, the top team in MLB was the Diamondbacks, at +19.4 runs, while the worst was the Tigers, at -18.4 runs.    I've looked back at the last 40 years, and the spread of 37.8 runs between best and worst is pretty typical.

The best baserunning team of the last 40 years, per BP, was the 1979 Royals, at +32.6.    The worst was the 1987 Orioles, at -33.2.     The '79 Royals stole 207 bases while being caught 76 times.   The '87 Orioles stole 69 bases while being caught 45 times.    Interestingly, for the Royals, only about 1/3 of their baserunning runs related to stolen bases; the rest came from advancing on batted balls.    Same for the '87 Orioles only more so: only about 12% of their negative value came from their stolen base record.

And what of the 2016 Orioles?   Per BP, they were at +1.0.    They cost themselves 2 runs on stolen base efforts, and made up for it by being slightly above average in other categories.

BB-ref has its own version of Baserunning Runs, in which the 2016 Orioles ranked a -2.    On that measure, the '87 Orioles ranked -18.

Bottom line, I think you are right that speed on the basepaths is not a very high impact attribute.

Statistically you are most likely correct and teams, rightfully so, try do win games. I may be in the minority, but, for entertainment value, I enjoy speed. It is painful for me to watch a guy like Hardy (who I like), hit a ball in the hole, the SS drops it and still beats Hardy by two steps with a throw. I am also not a fan, again for entertainment, of long plate appearances and BB's. I realize it is solid statistically, again, by my perspective tedious and game lengthening.  The automatic intentional BB will not speed up the game. What has changed the length of the game is the selectivity of hitters and the specialty pitching from the 6th inning on.