Sun article on who the O's may draft

[Sports Guy]

A lot of interesting things in this article:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-osdraft0603,0,6649094.story

The Orioles have no interest in Posey after taking catcher Matt Wieters with the fifth overall pick last year

If he goes first, it increases their chances of landing Beckham, San Diego left-hander Brian Matusz or South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak, a trio that apparently occupy the top slots on their draft board.

"I feel really good about our options," said Joe Jordan, in his fourth season as the Orioles' director of scouting. "We'll absolutely get a player we like a lot. It really depends on what goes on in front of us. It comes down to what other teams do. But I feel real good with where we're at."

Ben Hyman, who evaluates high school and college talent on his Web site, mlbdraftsource.wordpress.com, projects Matusz as a No. 2 starter in the majors, but he also places Missouri right-hander Aaron Cros and Eastern Kentucky left-hander Christian Friedrich ahead of Matusz in the draft.

"Although Matusz has had the better season, he pitches in a pitcher's park that deflates runs at about the same rate as Dodger Stadium," Hyman said. "Crow pitches against better competition in the Big 12, and his stadium is like Coors Field, pre-humidor. Friedrich plays in a mid-major conference, but pitches in a hitter-friendly park

"This is the best year ever for first basemen in the draft," Callis said

[Crazysilver03]

I really hope we take Beckham if he is there. If not, I would love to get Smoak. Just say no to Matusv.

[Mackus]

I'm sticking with my rationale that I'd be thrilled with any of Alvarez, Beckham, Smoak, or Matusz, in that order.

It definitely sounds like they are targetting the short list of players that most here think they should be.

[Greg Pappas]

A lot of interesting things in this article:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-osdraft0603,0,6649094.story

Makes sense about Posey. Looks like Smoak/Matusz as the most likely... but we've felt that for sometime now.

[Ralph]

If T. Beckham is there and so is Smoak who do we take? I've been thinking about this for a while now and I'm torn.

[Lefty0315]

If Beckham does not go number 1 then he should be there. The Pirates will take Alvarez and the Royals will take Hosmer. We just need the Rays to take Posey.

[Sports Guy]

I thought the comments on Matusz vs Crow were interesting.

I think Crow is the better one to go with if it were between those 2 but I also think Smoak is a way better option than either.

[Mackus]

Any indication on which of Smoak or Matusz would be the easiest to sign? Are either thought to be problems or demanding big money?

Also, what do you make of the scout's comments about Matusz pitching in a park like "Dodger Stadium" and Crow pitching in a park like "Coors Field, pre-humidor"?

[Sports Guy]

Any indication on which of Smoak or Matusz would be the easiest to sign? Are either thought to be problems or demanding big money?

Also, what do you make of the scout's comments about Matusz pitching in a park like "Dodger Stadium" and Crow pitching in a park like "Coors Field, pre-humidor"?

Tells me that Matusz may be overrated and Crow underrated.

[Mackus]

Tells me that Matusz may be overrated and Crow underrated.

Do the college numbers really even matter that much though?

I feel like the physcical scouting aspect of the draft is a much better tool than stats. There is just way too much variance even at the college level to be able to equate one player to another statistically with any confidence.

If the vast majority of the scouts say Matusz is the guy, how much does the park factors change your interpretations of their opinions? Would you go as far as to take Crow over Matusz?

These questions are for anyone, not just SG.

[Hank Scorpio]

Do the college numbers really even matter that much though?

I feel like the physcical scouting aspect of the draft is a much better tool than stats. There is just way too much variance even at the college level to be able to equate one player to another statistically with any confidence.

If the vast majority of the scouts say Matusz is the guy, how much does the park factors change your interpretations of their opinions? Would you go as far as to take Crow over Matusz?

These questions are for anyone, not just SG.

One would have to imagine much of the infatuation with Matusz is his left-handedness. Of the two, I would prefer Matusz based on what I have read about both... but I would prefer Smoak to anyone other than Alvarez, and even that is pretty close.

[Mackus]

Is the guy a scout or just some blogger? (LOL. No offense to anyone). I mean, this is the first I've heard of it. Lets do some research and verify this, first. For instance what are each pitcher's home/road splits? Is that kind of information available?

San Diego outscored their opponents 242-153 over 35 games at home and 145-100 over 25 games on the road.

So there were an average of 11.29 runs per game scored at home and 9.8 runs per game scored on the road. That would mean their home park had a park effect of 115, meaning it actually increased scoring by 15%.

That's probably not very accurate though, and may even be downright worthless. Park effects were originally calculated that way (home runs / away runs x 100%) for MLB games during balanced schedules and no interleague play. When the levels of the teams you played at home and on the road were roughly equal. That obviously wouldn't be the case for a college team, who plays their "cupcakes" at home and doesn't schedule as many road games. The stats here bear that out, SD outscored their opponents by 2.54 runs a game at home, but only by 1.8 runs per game at home.

So I think I just wasted 10 minutes.

[Sports Guy]

Do the college numbers really even matter that much though?

I feel like the physcical scouting aspect of the draft is a much better tool than stats. There is just way too much variance even at the college level to be able to equate one player to another statistically with any confidence.

If the vast majority of the scouts say Matusz is the guy, how much does the park factors change your interpretations of their opinions? Would you go as far as to take Crow over Matusz?

These questions are for anyone, not just SG.

Well, you do have to worry that his success as a starter has been enhanced by the park and vice versa for Crow...If that is the case, then you have to change your tune somewhat about these guys.

Now, the question is, does Matusz scout so well that it shouldn't matter(and I think this is what you are asking)? This is where you need scouting to really determine things.

I say stay away from both of them and just take TBeck or Smoak!

[Sports Guy]

If T. Beckham projects as Barry Larkin and Smoak projects as Mark Teixeira, who do you take?

That's a tough one because we may actually get the real Tex and while we could DH Smoak, we do lose some of his value since he is good with the glove.

But Beckham could be 3-5 years away.

I think beckham is the best talent in the draft so I probably take him but it is close.

And while it may be foolish, this whole Smoak/Wieters thing does have me intrigued. Chemistry, desire to be here long term and things like that make drafting Smoak a really good situation for the Orioles long term.

[Crazysilver03]

If T. Beckham projects as Barry Larkin and Smoak projects as Mark Teixeira, who do you take?

I would take Smoak and try and sign Furcal as a FA if we cant trade for someone this season or offseason.

At the same time, the draft is deep and we could possibly pick up a serviceable 1B in the 2nd round, where SS will be harder to find.

When I think about it, I want Beckham.

Though as SG points out, the Wieters/Smoak this is really cool and I would love to get the two of them together as a nice 3/4 or 4/5 in the lineup.

Markakis/Smoak/Wieters 3/4/5 makes my mouth water.