BTB :Britton's low trade value could hurt O's chances of dealing him

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

There are ground balls, and then there are ground balls.    Last year it seemed like half the hits off Britton were nubbers that never left the infield.    This year, the ball is being hit much harder, even if on the ground.   Per fangraphs, last year Zach had 30.9% soft contact and 14.8% hard contact; this year it's 14.5% soft contact and 29.1% hard contact.   His ground ball rate is down, his line drive rate is up, and his strikeout rate is substantially down.     But go ahead, kid yourself that he's just getting unlucky.   

 

9 hours ago, Ruzious said:

That's how it looks, but opposing hitters' bats have not been informed.

 

9 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

My apologies. I missed his first couple appearances.

Make it 17 in 9 innings.

These are all unfortunately true. At the end of the day, we can only hope that a team just sees a guy who is rusty, not a guy who missed most of the year on the DL and who has a 1.77 WHIP over 17 innings this year,

[weams]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

 

 

These are all unfortunately true. At the end of the day, we can only hope that a team just sees a guy who is rusty, not a guy who missed most of the year on the DL and who has a 1.77 WHIP over 17 innings this year,

He did not help his cause yesterday. At all. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, weams said:

He did not help his cause yesterday. At all. 

Weams....Britton is a closer and it's been my experience that closers often do not perform as well over in nonsave situations. I remember this being mentioned over the years. Is it possible that pitching Britton in games with us down 3-1 is part of the problem with the result?

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Weams....Britton is a closer and it's been my experience that closers often do not perform as well over in nonsave situations. I remember this being mentioned over the years. Is it possible that pitching Britton in games with us down 3-1 is part of the problem with the result?

Than the Dodgers shouldn't want him because he ain't closing over Jansen.

[Larry18]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Than the Dodgers shouldn't want him because he ain't closing over Jansen.

Which is bound to make Scott Boras happy.

[FlipTheBird]

15 hours ago, eddie83 said:

I was at the game on Thursday and yes he was unlucky. A perfectly placed groundball down 3rd and a high chopper up the middle. Today on one of the two turf fields left in the sport he lets up a grounder into LF and a high chopper over Davis who was holding a runner. 

The numbers you are referring to also include earlier in the season. I think he looks better now then he did in April where every night it was a high wire act.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Larry18 said:

Which is bound to make Scott Boras happy.

I don't think him being a setup man for a year and a third would hurt his value at all if he pitches at a high level.  He's a "proven closer".  If anything his willingness to assume the role his team needed him for would enhance his value.

[FlipTheBird]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think him being a setup man for a year and a third would hurt his value at all if he pitches at a high level.  He's a "proven closer".  If anything his willingness to assume the role his team needed him for would enhance his value.

Exactly. Britton is already a record-setting closer. Pitching as a setup guy next year wouldn't hurt his value at all, so long as he pitched well.

[Larry18]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think him being a setup man for a year and a third would hurt his value at all if he pitches at a high level.  He's a "proven closer".  If anything his willingness to assume the role his team needed him for would enhance his value.

Not hurt as much as not allow him to further enhance his value.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Larry18 said:

Not hurt as much as not allow him to further enhance his value.

Still going to have to disagree with you.  If he puts up the non-save numbers his value is there.  Teams know he can close.

Now what might hurt him is that non-closers tend to get used in more of a fireman role where he will be working with less margin for error.  But once again 2016 Britton would have excelled in that type of role.

[Larry18]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Still going to have to disagree with you.  If he puts up the non-save numbers his value is there.  Teams know he can close.

Now what might hurt him is that non-closers tend to get used in more of a fireman role where he will be working with less margin for error.  But once again 2016 Britton would have excelled in that type of role.

Correct if he can duplicate his 2016 numbers, which I don't think is reasonable to assume. I will assume that players employ Boras to maximize their income and I don't believe pitching in lower leverage situations provides that opportunity.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Larry18 said:

Correct if he can duplicate his 2016 numbers, which I don't think is reasonable to assume. I will assume that players employ Boras to maximize their income and I don't believe pitching in lower leverage situations provides that opportunity.

I'm in the camp that if he pitches well, it won't matter that he's not closing.     Everyone knows he can close.   126 saves and 8 blown saves (94%) speaks to that.    

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Larry18 said:

Correct if he can duplicate his 2016 numbers, which I don't think is reasonable to assume. I will assume that players employ Boras to maximize their income and I don't believe pitching in lower leverage situations provides that opportunity.

Does being the set up man equal pitching in lower leverage situations?

Lots of times the eighth inning guy gets the heart of the order or gets put in with runners on while today's closers are almost always used to start the ninth regardless of whom is coming up to bat.

 

Britton is an extremely known commodity.  Teams are not stupid enough to discount his value because he was traded to a team that already has a closer.

"Well we know your client was an elite closer who had one of the best years ever as a closer but this last year he only had 6 saves despite a 1.05 ERA, a 9.8 K rate and a 1.02 WHIP.  We can't do better than 2/12"

Not going to happen.

[pastorfan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does being the set up man equal pitching in lower leverage situations?

Lots of times the eighth inning guy gets the heart of the order or gets put in with runners on while today's closers are almost always used to start the ninth regardless of whom is coming up to bat.

 

Britton is an extremely known commodity.  Teams are not stupid enough to discount his value because he was traded to a team that already has a closer.

"Well we know your client was an elite closer who had one of the best years ever as a closer but this last year he only had 6 saves despite a 1.05 ERA, a 9.8 K rate and a 1.02 WHIP.  We can't do better than 2/12"

Not going to happen.

Completely agreed. Hopefully, we can trade him and get at least one player that pans out over the next six years or so. Then, if you really want to pay 15mm for a closer you could always get Wade Davis.

[Hotdiggity]

I see all the talk from a couple of weeks ago of "If Britton can pitch well for a couple of weeks, he'll net us Chapman+" has died down. Cool, because unless Britton can help teams re-win the 2016 trophy, there's no way he gets anything remotely close to that. Now the narrative is that he's just "rusty"?  The fact is the Britton hasn't pitched 2 days in a row since coming back and he's still looked terrible. At a certain point the truth becomes evident, and what's become evident is that he's not an elite reliever. Not in 2017. Not when teams are trying to win a 2017 WS trophy

 

So, the O's are faced with an important question on whether to get what they can on a (probably) busted pitcher or keep him and face the real possibility of non-tendering him come the offseason.