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Should JJ Hardy get his starting job back once he's healthy?

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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22 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

OPS .971 and he's great a defense. I'd take him. Better hitter than Hardy ever was, and he's a lefty OBP bat. Imagine him and sisco at the 1 and 2 spots. 

Career OPS .706, never OPSed more than .732 before this year.   We'd be buying him at a premium hoping that he manages to reproduce a total fluke year that he had at age 32.

Absoutely not.

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1968_bills_fan Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

1968_bills_fan

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One guy is batting .250 and the other .211.   

One guy is 34 and the other is 27.   Most SS are past their peak before 34 years old. http://www.fangraphs.com/community/peak-age-range-for-the-shortstop-position/

Both are fairly sure handed, but the older one has less range then he used to.  He doesn't make errors on balls he doesn't reach, but ALL of them go into the outfield as singles.

One earns $13 million dollars this year and the other earns $1.3 million.  There could be a savings of more than $10 million, which could be added to the offer for a free agent pitcher.

The Orioles #3 prospect (Monutcastle) is due in in '19 and the #10 prospect (Hall) is due in in '21.  There is something in the pipeline.  Many prospective trade partners have highly rated SS available and have the SS position blocked by very good major leaguers, so something good might happen cheap there.

 

I think it is time to save money and start the future.

 

 

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DirtyBird Hangout Grand Counsel

DirtyBird

Posted
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2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You think how teams treat someone like a JJ Hardy, who is a respected player has no value in the clubhouse? 

 

I was just being a smartass.

But really, I think you need to take a couple things into consideration before you just insert him back into that spot. But yeah, this is the right thing for Buck to say at this moment.

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SteveO Veteran All-Star

SteveO

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42 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Hardy is a + 7 Rtot at SS so far this year. Beckham is -7 . IMO the glove is the most important aspect of SS. I don't think the difference in Beckham's bat is worth 14 R.

This.....

Beckham is not good with the glove which is why I hated the move to get him. JJ may not hit a lick but at least he is reliable defensively.

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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44 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You think how teams treat someone like a JJ Hardy, who is a respected player has no value in the clubhouse? 

 

Unfortunately likely not enough value to overcome a .556 OPS.   But it is classic Buck favoritism of his "nuggets" rather than the sometime cutthroat decisions needed to win a World Series. 

It will be particularly interesting if Beckham goes on an absolute tear offensively and defensively for the next three weeks as to whether Buck just sits him for a rusty, aging Hardy. 

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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24 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Unfortunately likely not enough value to overcome a .556 OPS.   But it is classic Buck favoritism of his "nuggets" rather than the sometime cutthroat decisions needed to win a World Series. 

It will be particularly interesting if Beckham goes on an absolute tear offensively and defensively for the next three weeks as to whether Buck just sits him for a rusty, aging Hardy. 

And you are certain he would have a .556 OPS when he comes back?   He hit .716 last year.   Maybe rest and getting healthy will do him some good.

 

 

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AZRon Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

AZRon

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37 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Hardy is a + 7 Rtot at SS so far this year. Beckham is -7 . IMO the glove is the most important aspect of SS. I don't think the difference in Beckham's bat is worth 14 R.

You labeled your quoted stats as "Rtot", but the stats that you quoted appear to be Rtot/yr

Rtot/yr represents fielding runs above average over 1200 innings (per BB-Ref)

Beckham has played 600 innings this year at shortstop with a Rtot/yr of -7

Hardy has played 546 innings at shortstop with a Rtot/yr of 8

The earliest that Hardy can return is August 18th; if JJ were to play shortstop for 9 innings for all of the remaining regular season games at this year's fielding effectiveness to date, he would contribute 2.4 Rtot.  Again, at this year's rate of production, he would contribute an overall WAR of -0.6

The expected numbers for Beckham over those last 60 games are -2.1 Rtot and a WAR of .5

So, over the last 60 games, the differential is +4.5 fielding runs for Hardy and +1.1 WAR for Beckham

 

 

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eddie83 Hangout Grand Counsel

eddie83

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43 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Unfortunately likely not enough value to overcome a .556 OPS.   But it is classic Buck favoritism of his "nuggets" rather than the sometime cutthroat decisions needed to win a World Series. 

It will be particularly interesting if Beckham goes on an absolute tear offensively and defensively for the next three weeks as to whether Buck just sits him for a rusty, aging Hardy. 

I doubt either way Buck is going to let Beckham rot on the bench.  

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