If we are playoff bound, we still need one more starting pitcher

[foxfield]

20 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I never said we weren't in it, I just pointed out that as long as the Royals are in front of us we do not control our own destiny because we don't play them again. I don't know why that seems to be so difficult for people to understand.

This is true and should not need pointing out.  It also does not concern me because, 1 we have to catch Seattle and then we have to catch Tampa Bay and THEN we have to worry about KC.  If we have 6 games left and we still trail them I will fret because we do not control our own destiny.  But on August 6?  I think we do in spite of your technically correct position that we do not face them directly.   

There are a bunch of if's in the assumption that the O's are still in it.  We have a bunch of things that have to happen.  Catching KC is definitely on the list, but its kinda like worrying about who we would throw in game 1 of the WS.  Let's get some of these other things done and see where we are vis a vis KC.  If we can't catch the other two, KC can finish 6 games behind us and our not playing them won't have mattered.

 

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

I never said we weren't in it, I just pointed out that as long as the Royals are in front of us we do not control our own destiny because we don't play them again. I don't know why that seems to be so difficult for people to understand.

We do control our own destiny, if you are going to get technical about it:

Boston -- 7.5 games ahead of us and we only play them 6 times so we don't control our destiny there

New York -- 4.5 games ahead of us and we play them 7 times

KC -- 2 games ahead of us and we don't play them

Tampa -- 2 games ahead of us and we play them 7 times

Seattle -- one game ahead of us and we play them 6 times

So basically we control our own destiny in terms of being able to catch enough teams ahead of us to get the second wild card, not that it really matters.   We basically have to play .666 ball or something close to it, and if we do that, it will probably be enough to get a wild card. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

5 hours ago, Barnaby Graves said:

Will logic ever win out over irrational exuberance?  No, probably not, for the same reason that casinos are big, tall buildings.

Throw good money after bad and wonder how you ended up in the gutter.  Welcome back to 1998.

Yes, yes. Let's just paint the other side that sees a 2.5 game deficit as surmountable irrationally exhuberant.. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Of the teams battling for the 2nd WC spot we clearly have the best lineup and bullpen.  TB has the best rotation. 

And we know bullpen is big in the playoffs. If we get in, teams have made runs the past few years with OK rotations and good bullpens. We have a great bullpen and a deep lineup. 

[El Gordo]

We need to win 86-88 G. ,607%

[sportsfan8703]

We have off days on the 17th and 24th. Then expanded rosters on Sept 1st. We could also spot start Aquino or Wright depending on the match up. There are ways to keep the SP's extra rest. Hart is probably the guy most likely to be optioned if the we need a spot SP. 

Just because Tillman is in the pen doesn't mean we can't get the benefits of a 6 man rotation. 

[Cumberbundy]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We have off days on the 17th and 24th. Then expanded rosters on Sept 1st. We could also spot start Aquino or Wright depending on the match up. There are ways to keep the SP's extra rest. Hart is probably the guy most likely to be optioned if the we need a spot SP. 

Just because Tillman is in the pen doesn't mean we can't get the benefits of a 6 man rotation. 

Maybe we get Castillo enough rest to give him a start.

[ScGO's]

10 hours ago, SteveA said:

We do control our own destiny, if you are going to get technical about it:

Boston -- 7.5 games ahead of us and we only play them 6 times so we don't control our destiny there

New York -- 4.5 games ahead of us and we play them 7 times

KC -- 2 games ahead of us and we don't play them

Tampa -- 2 games ahead of us and we play them 7 times

Seattle -- one game ahead of us and we play them 6 times

So basically we control our own destiny in terms of being able to catch enough teams ahead of us to get the second wild card, not that it really matters.   We basically have to play .666 ball or something close to it, and if we do that, it will probably be enough to get a wild card. 

Ahhh yes, some good ol' Satan ball

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, SteveA said:

We basically have to play .666 ball or something close to it, and if we do that, it will probably be enough to get a wild card. 

That makes it sound way harder than it's likely to be.    Right now, it the Royals are on pace to win 84 games.     For us to win 85, we'd have to go 30-21, or .588.    It's possible some other team could equal or top that, but it's actually not that likely that anyone would.  

[SteveA]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That makes it sound way harder than it's likely to be.    Right now, it the Royals are on pace to win 84 games.     For us to win 85, we'd have to go 30-21, or .588.    It's possible some other team could equal or top that, but it's actually not that likely that anyone would.  

Well, that's the problem with having so many teams at +/- 2 games of us.  Sure, the chances of any one team that is barely over .500 playing .660 ball is kind of slim.  But when you have 5 or 6 teams, the percentages add up and chances are a lot higher that ONE of those teams will.  Especially as they face each other in various series where one of the teams is guaranteed to win 2 of 3.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Well, that's the problem with having so many teams at +/- 2 games of us.  Sure, the chances of any one team that is barely over .500 playing .660 ball is kind of slim.  But when you have 5 or 6 teams, the percentages add up and chances are a lot higher that ONE of those teams will.  Especially as they face each other in various series where one of the teams is guaranteed to win 2 of 3.

A week or two ago, I looked at where BP projected the "cut line" for the second wild card to be as of the first week of August, vs.  where it actually turned out to be, over the previous 4 seasons.   The biggest differential, over 2013-16, was +2 games.   Right now BP has the cut line at 83 wins (that's Tampa; they project the Royals at 82 and Seattle at 81).    So, I stand by my statement that if the Orioles won 85 games it's not likely another team would top them for the 2nd wild card.    

[crawjo]

I wouldn't be surprised if they did make a trade for a pitcher with a low acquisition cost. 

[Tx Oriole]

13 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

I never said we weren't in it, I just pointed out that as long as the Royals are in front of us we do not control our own destiny because we don't play them again. I don't know why that seems to be so difficult for people to understand.

I understand your point very well. 

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

That makes it sound way harder than it's likely to be.    Right now, it the Royals are on pace to win 84 games.     For us to win 85, we'd have to go 30-21, or .588.    It's possible some other team could equal or top that, but it's actually not that likely that anyone would.  

7 games vs Oak in the next two weeks. We need to go 6-1, 5-2. 

I wish Tillman would go on the DL until September. I don't see us letting go of Gentry in these big ballparks. I think Hart goes for Trumbo. I would not be surprised to see DD pick up a cheap SP, if one becomes available. Chacin?

[Tx Oriole]

17 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

7 games vs Oak in the next two weeks. We need to go 6-1, 5-2. 

I wish Tillman would go on the DL until September. I don't see us letting go of Gentry in these big ballparks. I think Hart goes for Trumbo. I would not be surprised to see DD pick up a cheap SP, if one becomes available. Chacin?

Maybe he will. I worry about what it might cost though.