TT: Is this really the worst season of your fandom?

[joelala]

The Garrett Atkins year was the worst for me.

[25 Nuggets]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Thinking about the worst seasons, my top 5 would be:

2005: Went into the year reasonably optimistic we could break our 7-year losing streak, got off to a great start, fell apart, fired the manager and suffered the incredible embarrassment of Raffygate, the clubhouse turned toxic and then Tejada asked to be traded at the end of the year. All optimism was dashed after that for several years.

1986: The first losing season after 18 consecutive winning seasons.   Eddie got hurt, then pouted when Edward Bennett Williams criticized his conditioning.    The team went into a tailspin when Eddie returned, the fans started booing him and that relationship was irreparably damaged.     Earl, who had been coaxed out of retirement, realized he'd made a mistake and quit at the end of the year.    

1988: A third straight losing season that was over before it began with the 0-21 start.    Cal Sr. got fired barely a week into the season.   What an embarrassment that team was.

1998:  Coming off the wire to wire AL East title and two straight playoff appearances, expectations were sky high, but the team sleepwalked under Ray Miller and clubhouse issues arose.    At the end of the year, Robbie Alomar and Raffy Palmeiro walked away from the team.   GM Pat Gillick got fed up and left, as well.

2000: The team had a third straight losing season and ran an incompetent fire sale at the trade deadline that doomed the team to more years of losing.    Angelos screwed up the Mussina negotiations and he left after the season for the hated Yankees.

There is no comparison at all between this year and any of those five.   Not even on the same planet.   

That's a pretty good summary.

I get the feeling that this team won about as many games as it can, and that there is room for improvement for next season with certain bad contracts ending.  Maybe that's the key - hope for next season.

[wildcard]

Not one of the O's worst seasons.  There is a lot of potential and  hope for next year.

The owner is in win now mode.  Buck will be extended as manager because no one wants him to be seen as a lame duck.  I don't see Peter wanting a season to extend him.  Dan is more about the money and the presiden'ts title.  He will stay through 2018 but I don't  know past that.  It could go either way for Dan.

The O's will reload this off season with 50m coming off the books.  I think Peter leverages Manny's desire to play with Jonathan and signs them both to long term deals this  off season.  Having Buck extended helps sign Manny and Jonathan.

Dan will creative to add to the starting staff.

Hays is a star on the rise.

 

 

 

[eddie83]

6 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Dan lost a lot of power and influence after the Toronto situation from what I've heard. Buck would seem to be in a better position to remain with the organization,

This makes total sense. 

Also,I have never had the feeling that Buck is ready to ride off into the sunset and retire. 

[MDK02]

I think it is one of the worst because we have Schoop and Manny playing at an elite level. It is wasting valuable years left with them. It's definitely the most frustrating year since 2012, I think I was so used to losing in years prior that it just felt normal.

[foxfield]

The proper way to proceed would be to address the GM position as soon as the season ends. It would allow GM to comfortably assess the future and make moves on the field and in the front office to set a course for a championship. 

Of course DD would want full control which he seemingly does not have according to Tony and a new GM would be laugh at the side roles the Orioles allow to have power. 

What to do....

[Babypowder]

15 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I have no problem with this year. This was a playoff team last year with essentially the same talent. I feel Trumbo is an average player. He's won some games for us this year. He is not chopped liver. The problem was and is Duquette and how he badly misjudged our starting pitching . That doomed us by June. Looking back, we had far worse seasons. How about starting 0-21? That was brutal. Or take your pick of the 13 dark years. This year was a walk in the park compared to some of the horrific seasons I have endured as an Orioles fan. Going forward, I love some of the talent on its way up. And if Manny departs, so be it. That's business. Get the best package you can get this winter. God willing, I'll be locked and loaded and ready for ST and 2018.

He's absolutely chopped liver. He was an average player last year when he hit 47 home runs (2 fWAR, 1.6 rWAR). This season he's been worth -0.8 fWAR and -0.1 rWAR. He's a brutal defensive player, who has provided negative offensive value both on the bases (-0.5 runs) and at the plate (-11.6 runs). He has an 84 wRC+, which means his bat is 16 percent below league average. Among qualified players, he's the 4th worst position player in baseball by WAR. If that's an "average player", who is below average?

[Frobby]

Just now, Babypowder said:

He's absolutely chopped liver. He was an average player last year when he hit 47 home runs (2 fWAR, 1.6 rWAR). This season he's been worth -0.8 fWAR and -0.1 rWAR. He's a brutal defensive player, who has provided negative offensive value both on the bases (-0.5 runs) and at the plate (-11.6 runs). He has an 84 wRC+, which means his bat is 16 percent below league average. Among qualified players, he's the 4th worst position player in baseball by WAR. If that's an "average player", who is below average?

I think your assessment is fair.    In Trumbo's defense, he's done well in some very high-leverage situations, including three walk-off game winners (including a homer on Opening Day), two eighth inning game-tiers, and two other hits with a WPA over .300.    That doesn't make up for his poor overall numbers, but at least he's had a number of memorable moments this year.    Chris Davis can't even say that (he has one hit with a WPA over .300, to Trumbo's 7).    

FWIW, here's our leaderboard for hits over .300 WPA:

Trumbo 7

Machado 4

Castillo 4

Hardy 2

Smith 1

Davis 1

Schoop 1

Rickard 1

Gentry 1

Jones 0

Joseph 0

Kim 0

Beckham 0

Flaherty 0

Tejada 0

[joelala]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Not one of the O's worst seasons.  There is a lot of potential and  hope for next year.

The owner is in win now mode.  Buck will be extended as manager because no one wants him to be seen as a lame duck.  I don't see Peter wanting a season to extend him.  Dan is more about the money and the presiden'ts title.  He will stay through 2018 but I don't  know past that.  It could go either way for Dan.

The O's will reload this off season with 50m coming off the books.  I think Peter leverages Manny's desire to play with Jonathan and signs them both to long term deals this  off season.  Having Buck extended helps sign Manny and Jonathan.

Dan will creative to add to the starting staff.

Hays is a star on the rise.

 

 

 

Love your optimism here, but I don't think Peter has anything to leverage.  Manny would be a fool not to go to FA at this point, and I 100% see him doing that.  And I think the Manny and Schoop wanna stay together factor is being way over-blown.  I hope I'm wrong, but c'mon.  These guys have iPhones lol, they can facetime and snapchat each other all day from across the country and then train together all off-season. 

I think Manny walks after next year, and we keep Schoop to build around for the future.  Hope I'm wrong and we keep both though, obviously.

[nadecir]

The Orioles have 2 choices going forward to try to compete:

1. Significantly increase team payroll to make up for the wasted dollars on existing bad contracts (see Chris Davis).  This will allow the team to take more player risks, some of which will pan out and some of which won't.
2. Go the Houston Astros/Tampa Bay Rays route, and build up a cadre of young, cost-controlled players.   Limit any free agent contract signings to the window where you have enough good players to compete.  Don't do any big free agent signings outside of this window.  Trade your good players before the last year of free agency to help build up this cadre of young, cost controlled players.  Wait to go for it when it's clear you have a window to compete.

I do think what Tony is getting at in his original post is the window for competing with the big boys in baseball is now closing for the Orioles, if not closed for a few years.  That's a downer.

I'd like to see the Orioles pick one of the two strategies above.  Most likely this means #2.  If the Orioles are not willing to dramatically increase payroll now, do whatever it takes to build up a cadre of young players with the idea that we will have a couple of down years before the window gets opened again.  We as fans will have to accept a few years of below .500 play for the long term good of the club.

Playing the management game of a trying to compete every year with a limited payroll carrying the burden of a few bad existing contracts is a sure fire recipe for a much longer term of mediocrity.

[Babypowder]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think your assessment is fair.    In Trumbo's defense, he's done well in some very high-leverage situations, including three walk-off game winners (including a homer on Opening Day), two eighth inning game-tiers, and two other hits with a WPA over .300.    That doesn't make up for his poor overall numbers, but at least he's had a number of memorable moments this year.    Chris Davis can't even say that (he has one hit with a WPA over .300, to Trumbo's 7).    

FWIW, here's our leaderboard for hits over .300 WPA:

Trumbo 7

Machado 4

Castillo 4

Hardy 2

Smith 1

Davis 1

Schoop 1

Rickard 1

Gentry 1

Jones 0

Joseph 0

Kim 0

Beckham 0

Flaherty 0

Tejada 0

Yes, sequence variance has been his friend on occasion.

[Tbone83]

Not the worst by a long shot, but it has been high on the "stick in you craw" list. Mainly because if they had addressed the starting pitching situation this past offseason, this team probably makes the playoffs. I know it's easier said than done, but DD did nothing. Actually worse than nothing, by not retaining Gonzo. 

[spiritof66]

54 minutes ago, nadecir said:

The Orioles have 2 choices going forward to try to compete:

1. Significantly increase team payroll to make up for the wasted dollars on existing bad contracts (see Chris Davis).  This will allow the team to take more player risks, some of which will pan out and some of which won't.
2. Go the Houston Astros/Tampa Bay Rays route, and build up a cadre of young, cost-controlled players.   Limit any free agent contract signings to the window where you have enough good players to compete.  Don't do any big free agent signings outside of this window.  Trade your good players before the last year of free agency to help build up this cadre of young, cost controlled players.  Wait to go for it when it's clear you have a window to compete.

I do think what Tony is getting at in his original post is the window for competing with the big boys in baseball is now closing for the Orioles, if not closed for a few years.  That's a downer.

I'd like to see the Orioles pick one of the two strategies above.  Most likely this means #2.  If the Orioles are not willing to dramatically increase payroll now, do whatever it takes to build up a cadre of young players with the idea that we will have a couple of down years before the window gets opened again.  We as fans will have to accept a few years of below .500 play for the long term good of the club.

Playing the management game of a trying to compete every year with a limited payroll carrying the burden of a few bad existing contracts is a sure fire recipe for a much longer term of mediocrity.

Building a team through Strategy #2 is challenging for anyone. Two additional challenges relating to the Orioles' situation:

1. It's almost impossible to build a deep pool of MiL talent without a strong pipeline to international talent, which the Orioles have decided not to build. With very few exceptions, there's significant uncertainty as to whether a promising prospect will perform well at the ML level (and whether and when his career will be derailed by injury). You can reduce that risk by having lots of talented guys in your system. That's harder to do when you pretty much ignore a source of much of that talent. 

2. Strategy #2, even if it works, will give you some down years while the young talent gets ML experience. That makes it hard to maintain the fan base and attendance -- especially if you face competition from a team in the same or a neighboring city, as the Orioles do. You mention the Rays and Astros. The Rays, I would guess, have given up trying to build a fan base until they get a new stadium or move. The Astros' attendance in the last five years has been pretty lackluster for a team in the fifth largest market in the U.S., with the closest team 250 miles away and access to lots of additional fans in TX and LA.  

You won't see the Orioles pursue #2 until there's a change in ownership, if ever.

To return to the OP,  for me one disappointing aspect of this season and the preceding offseason has been my realization that Manny almost certainly won't remain an Oriole after 2018 (and the likelihood he won't be traded until late next season, if at all). 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Tbone83 said:

Not the worst by a long shot, but it has been high on the "stick in you craw" list. Mainly because if they had addressed the starting pitching situation this past offseason, this team probably makes the playoffs. I know it's easier said than done, but DD did nothing. Actually worse than nothing, by not retaining Gonzo. 

Gonzo was released at the start of the 2016 season.     This year, the only notable move, in terms of established major league pitchers, was trading Gallardo for Smith.    

Honestly, I don't know if DD reasonably could have foreseen that Tillman would go from a reliable pitcher to hot garbage, that Gausman's ERA would increase by 1.50 per game, and that Ubaldo would be materially worse than in 2014 and 2016, when he sucked.   But the other big problem was that our AAA guys weren't able to push the major leaguers who were faltering.    

[Ripken]

It's certainly not the worst record wise, enjoyment wise, or expectation wise.

It does suck though.  We have a horrendous starting rotation and a lineup full of strikeout machines because of terrible front office decisions.  This team could be young, cheap, and very competitive right now, if only for some reasonable past decisions.  Hell, just don't extend Davis and keep Davies and we're probably in the wild card spot with a smaller payroll, better future outlook, and better chance of keep Manny.