Orioles Have No Plans of Shopping Machado

[Tx Oriole]

13 hours ago, Rojo13 said:

Why do people keep saying we'll get nothing of return? Of course we'll get something in return, we'll get Manny on the team which will be worth about 6 WAR.

There is no reason to trade him unless you get more than 6 WAR in return (ok maybe a little less as we'll get $13 million to use).

I wouldn't trade him at all. We need try to win it all next year. If things are going bad next year, we trade Manny, Britton, Brach,  Jones. We'll definitely be able to re-stock the farm system if we are tanking next year with those guys.

It amazes me that people think we want to trade a guy who based on his age should be having one of the best seasons of his career.

If he would go FA then all the O's get is a draft pick. Look I want Manny to stay. But it depends on what Manny will want and how much Angelos is willing to spend. If Manny wants 300 million ten year contract then I don't see Angelos spending that kind of money. 

[Ruzious]

2 hours ago, foxfield said:

I am as optimistic as almost anyone here.  And I would join you in thinking that winning it all is not out of the question next year although there would have to be some additions and some monster seasons from many corners.

That said, IF the Orioles take the 6 or 8 or 10 WAR from Manny next year and then allow him to leave with only a draft pick in his place, the Orioles will have squandered an asset that is a once in a generation asset and doing so without hanging a World Championship banner in OPACY would be mismanagement on a scale that would be an embarrassment to the franchise and would cement Peter Angelos as being a terrible owner.

Peter Angelos saved the Franchise for the city of Baltimore.  He hasn't been a terrible owner because he is stupid or greedy...he has just made errors believing he is smarter than everyone else.  One of the biggest problems is that many times he is in fact smarter.  Anyway, 14 years of losing after firing his manager of the year, losing his home grown ace to the Yankees, these are black marks that he is actually trying to erase, by committing to Adam Jones, JJ Hardy, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo.  He even agreed to a large deal for Ubaldo.

Peter is not going to let Manny go, in my opinion, because there will be no reconciliation for him as an owner if he loses him.  He doesn't care so much about what the fans think, but I don't think he can stand losing, not games, but him personally, losing.  His legacy rides on the next 12-18 months in my opinion.  Doing nothing may well be what happens here and there are many close to the Orioles who think that is exactly what we will do.

I think the only way Manny leaves is that he simply won't stay in Baltimore and while that is a possibility, I believe Manny will be presented with an offer that is very very nearly impossible to refuse.

Of course that is just my opinion.

I think you're being too nice to Angelos.  How could he possibly think the O's could be a championship team next season?  Is he going to dump the entire farm system to get a pitching staff?  Uh oh, I shouldn't give him any ideas.  This is a team with a minus 70 run differencial - 50 worse than Tampa Bay - who's just a half game ahead of the O's.  There are just too many teams better than the O's that they'd have to climb over for there to be even a slight chance.  To be blunt, he'd have to be a fool.  Just compare the O's roster to the Nats'.      

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Well, Manny is having another dud month in September which would be four bad months out of six after finishing last season with two bad months out of three. So, what, that's six well below average months out of the last nine if September continues the way it has? That is significant and more than enough to say he has been a well below average offensive player for the majority of the time since July 2016.

As for top 5? Hmm... Trout, Judge, Betts, Lindor, Altuve, Cruz, Stanton, Harper, C. Seager and probably others I'm forgetting. That's 10 including Manny, so where does he rank there? His stock is falling, but not nearly enough to affect potential trade value... yet. He has been bad offensively far more than he's been good over the last nine months of baseball.

I wouldn't call April (.767 OPS) or June (.759 OPS) "bad."     They certainly weren't great.   This month isn't over yet, so I'd hold off saying anything until it is.    I don't think players are metronomes, so I judge them based on 162 games without getting too far into the weeds on how the season broke down.  

[osfan83]

1 hour ago, Sessh said:

Well, Manny is having another dud month in September which would be four bad months out of six after finishing last season with two bad months out of three. So, what, that's six well below average months out of the last nine if September continues the way it has? That is significant and more than enough to say he has been a well below average offensive player for the majority of the time since July 2016.

As for top 5? Hmm... Trout, Judge, Betts, Lindor, Altuve, Cruz, Stanton, Harper, C. Seager and probably others I'm forgetting. That's 10 including Manny, so where does he rank there? His stock is falling, but not nearly enough to affect potential trade value... yet. He has been bad offensively far more than he's been good over the last nine months of baseball.

So a bad year for Manny is likely Gold Glove,  .270 38 HR and 100+ RBI. I'll take that in a down year.......The only question to be answered is, what hat will Manny be wearing when he is inducted? 

[maybenxtyr]

24 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

So a bad year for Manny is likely Gold Glove,  .270 38 HR and 100+ RBI. I'll take that in a down year.......The only question to be answered is, what hat will Manny be wearing when he is inducted? 

Right. I really think people don't enjoy watching certain players because they allow their expectations to take away from the here and now. It has been a pleasure watching Manny grow up, and I hope ownership steps up and keeps him here.

[Sessh]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn't call April (.767 OPS) or June (.759 OPS) "bad."     They certainly weren't great.   This month isn't over yet, so I'd hold off saying anything until it is.    I don't think players are metronomes, so I judge them based on 162 games without getting too far into the weeds on how the season broke down.  

For a "Top 5" player who expects to make 30+ million a year, yeah, it's bad.Second, two excellent months doesn't make a good season if the season is six months long and the other four months were below average for the "once in a generation" type player pedestal he is foisted up on. Once in a generation? There's many players in baseball right now that are better than he is. The bottom line is Machado isn't a top 5 offensive talent in six of the last nine months.

The 162 line is an average of all months and most certainly has the potential to be misleading. The overall line may be good, but if most of it came in two months while being average to below average in the other four (if his September line stays around where it is now), then the overall 162 line stands to be misleading and make it appear as though he played to that line all year consistently when in fact, he didn't and actually hurt the team offensively for most of the year. Averages are nice and all, but don't necessarily paint an accurate overall picture. In this case, Machado had one monster month, one above average month and the rest is very "meh" and not superstar caliber at all. September may paint a different picture, but getting "into the weeds" is necessary to find out just how those averages came to be... unless you don't care about consistency in performance in which case, who cares?  I know I do.

[osfan83]

12 minutes ago, Sessh said:

For a "Top 5" player who expects to make 30+ million a year, yeah, it's bad.Second, two excellent months doesn't make a good season if the season is six months long and the other four months were below average for the "once in a generation" type player pedestal he is foisted up on. Once in a generation? There's many players in baseball right now that are better than he is. The bottom line is Machado isn't a top 5 offensive talent in six of the last nine months.

The 162 line is an average of all months and most certainly has the potential to be misleading. The overall line may be good, but if most of it came in two months while being average to below average in the other four (if his September line stays around where it is now), then the overall 162 line stands to be misleading and make it appear as though he played to that line all year consistently when in fact, he didn't and actually hurt the team offensively for most of the year. Averages are nice and all, but don't necessarily paint an accurate overall picture. In this case, Machado had one monster month, one above average month and the rest is very "meh" and not superstar caliber at all. September may paint a different picture, but getting "into the weeds" is necessary to find out just how those averages came to be... unless you don't care about consistency in performance in which case, who cares?  I know I do.

.333 hitters don't go 1 for 3 every night, and 40 HR guys don't 1 HR every 4 games. 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

.333 hitters don't go 1 for 3 every night, and 40 HR guys don't 1 HR every 4 games. 

Exactly.    Nor do they have the same exact year every year.    

As I've explained previously, nobody is claiming that Manny is a top 5 hitter, anyway.    The value of his contract will derive from (1) his relatively unique offense/defense combo, and (2) his age.   There are quite a few hitters better than Manny.

[Sessh]

39 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

.333 hitters don't go 1 for 3 every night, and 40 HR guys don't 1 HR every 4 games. 

Well, duh. You obviously completely miss the point. I don't expect Manny or any player to hit exactly the same every night and never slump, but within reason. If you want $30 million a year, you better show better consistency than what he has shown over the last year and a half of baseball. If you think hitting under .250 the majority of the year = superstar worth $30 million a year, then you've missed more than the point. You've missed the whole boat.

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Exactly.    Nor do they have the same exact year every year.    

As I've explained previously, nobody is claiming that Manny is a top 5 hitter, anyway.    The value of his contract will derive from (1) his relatively unique offense/defense combo, and (2) his age.   There are quite a few hitters better than Manny.

Of course they don't. My god, I expect CONSISTENCY. I don't expect robotic, duplicate performances every night and every year, but I expect a certain level of performance out of a guy that wants $30 million a year and that level better be better than any player in the league since he's predicted to have some record breaking contract. Well, he's gotta be better than this. My standards aren't as low as what you two have lowered yours to obviously.

How does being a top 5 player not include being a top 5 hitter or somewhere in the ballpark at the very least? Once in a generation player? Seems pretty lofty to me and yet, I don't see the matching statistics in recent years. No one is going to pay $30M a year for defense and four months of sub-.250 hitting with two months or so of elite hitting in there somewhere. Of course, I'm sure he'll have some amazing season next year being his contract year, then revert to this for whatever sucker signs him. It's possible just getting out of Baltimore will fix him, too. It's worked for several others.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sessh said:

Well, duh. You obviously completely miss the point. I don't expect Manny or any player to hit exactly the same every night and never slump, but within reason. If you want $30 million a year, you better show better consistency than what he has shown over the last year and a half of baseball. If you think hitting under .250 the majority of the year = superstar worth $30 million a year, then you've missed more than the point. You've missed the whole boat.

Of course they don't. My god, I expect CONSISTENCY. I don't expect robotic, duplicate performances every night and every year, but I expect a certain level of performance out of a guy that wants $30 million a year and that level better be better than any player in the league since he's predicted to have some record breaking contract. Well, he's gotta be better than this. My standards aren't as low as what you two have lowered yours to obviously.

How does being a top 5 player not include being a top 5 hitter or somewhere in the ballpark at the very least? Once in a generation player? Seems pretty lofty to me and yet, I don't see the matching statistics in recent years. No one is going to pay $30M a year for defense and four months of sub-.250 hitting with two months or so of elite hitting in there somewhere. Of course, I'm sure he'll have some amazing season next year being his contract year, then revert to this for whatever sucker signs him. It's possible just getting out of Baltimore will fix him, too. It's worked for several others.

My god, I expect FOLKS TO USE MORE USEFUL STATS THAN BATTING AVERAGE TO TRY AND MAKE A POINT.  I don't expect deep in depth analysis every night and every year, but I expect a certain level of knowledge from our posters. 

[Sessh]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

My god, I expect FOLKS TO USE MORE USEFUL STATS THAN BATTING AVERAGE TO TRY AND MAKE A POINT.  I don't expect deep in depth analysis every night and every year, but I expect a certain level of knowledge from our posters. 

Blah, blah. Sub .800 OPS better? Sub .300 OBP? Sub .450 SLG and sometimes sub.400? Sub .250 BABIP? The point is the same and the BA tells the same story.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Blah, blah. Sub .800 OPS better? Sub .300 OBP? Sub .450 SLG and sometimes sub.400? Sub .250 BABIP? The point is the same and the BA tells the same story.

Do you understand what BABIP is?

Because a sub 250 BABIP means pretty much the opposite of what a sub 250 batting average does.  Particularly when you look at his exit velocity.

But I know, if it wasn't on the back of a baseball card in the '50's who needs it!

[Frobby]

Meh, we'll know in a year what kind of contract Manny commands on the open market.    Personally, I think we're in for a round of salary inflation.    Salary records are broken not because today's FA is better than last year's, but because salaries go up over time as MLB revenues do.    It's pretty well documented that revenues have been growing faster than salaries for a while now, and eventually market forces will correct that, at least to a significant degree.    There are only two current players with a contract that averages $30 mm/yr, but in a decade I'll bet there will be 20 such contracts, and Manny is likely to be one, along with Trout (who'll probably top $40 mm/yr), Harper, Bryant, Lindor, Arenado, Seager and some others.

Manny's now in his sixth major league season, the first of which was only two months and the third of which was only three months, so in reality he's played 4.8 seasons, at ages 19-24.   By fangraphs' reckoning, at the going FA prices, Manny's been worth $206 mm in that span.   It's pretty hard for me to see how he's not going to get $30 mm/yr.

[Sessh]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Do you understand what BABIP is?

Because a sub 250 BABIP means pretty much the opposite of what a sub 250 batting average does.  Particularly when you look at his exit velocity.

But I know, if it wasn't on the back of a baseball card in the '50's who needs it!

Yeah because exit velocity is extremely important when dishing out record setting contracts. I know what BABIP stands for and league average is around .300 for that. Machado's by month this year are:

April - .224
May - .191
June - .242
July - .327
August - .341
September - .230

On balls in play that stay in the park, he is WELL below average most of the time and that extends in two of the last three months of last year. I expect a $30M player to be MUCH better than that. Fine though, let's look at more stats which you seem to believe tell a different story than the one I'm telling.

- wRC+ where 100 is league average, Machado is below average and sometimes WELL below average in those six months.

- wOBA league average is around .320 Machado is below average and sometimes WELL below average in five of those six months with the other being .329; barely above average.

It's all the same story even with your "more useful stats". So much for all that yelling. Same story.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Yeah because exit velocity is extremely important when dishing out record setting contracts. I know what BABIP stands for and league average is around .300 for that. Machado's by month this year are:

April - .224
May - .191
June - .242
July - .327
August - .341
September - .230

On balls in play that stay in the park, he is WELL below average most of the time and that extends in two of the last three months of last year. I expect a $30M player to be MUCH better than that. Fine though, let's look at more stats which you seem to believe tell a different story than the one I'm telling.

- wRC+ where 100 is league average, Machado is below average and sometimes WELL below average in those six months.

- wOBA league average is around .320 Machado is below average and sometimes WELL below average in five of those six months with the other being .329; barely above average.

It's all the same story even with your "more useful stats". So much for all that yelling. Same story.

I'm pretty sure you don't understand BABIP and the underlying principles of using it.

I suggest you go study more.