My 2017 second half grades and overall report card

[Frobby]

At the halfway point of the season (the 81 game mark, not the all-star break), I posted a thread citing the first half stats and handing out grades to the players.    In this thread, I'll do the same for the second half, and then an overall grade.    The first half stats and grades are repeated here for context, without the narrative from my earlier thread.    I'll do the position players in this post and the pitchers separately.   All grades are scaled to my expectations for the player.

Chris Davis 1st half: .226/.320/.461, 14 HR, 26 RBI, 0.5 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR -- D.   2nd half: .205/.299/.389, 12 HR, 35 RBI, -0.6 rWAR, -1.0 fWAR -- F.   Overall grade -- F.

As bad as Davis was in the first half, he was worse in the second half.    For the year, he was worth -0.1 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR.    For $23 mm, that's an F.

Jonathan Schoop 1st half: .293/.348/.538, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 1.6 rWAR, 1.9 fWAR -- B+.   2nd half: .292/.329/.473, 16 HR, 54 RBI. 3.5 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR -- A.    Overall grade -- A.

Schoop was very consistent through August, but like everyone else on the team, slumped in September.     His WAR improvement in the second half reflects that his defense was much better as the season went along.    Defensive miscues were the reason I'd downgraded him to a B+ in the first half, so overall, he deserves an A.

Manny Machado 1st half: .217/.288/.428, 16 HR, 41 RBI, 1.1 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR -- D.    Second half: .296/.337/.511, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 2.4 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR -- B.   Overall grade -- C.

Manny played great in July and August (when he was AL player of the month), but really cooled off in September.     Overall, he was much more inconsistent than in the two previous seasons, and his defense wasn't quite as good.   The bar is very high for Manny, so his 3.5 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR season only warrants a C.

J.J. Hardy 1st half: .211/.248/.308, 3 HR, 21 RBI, -0.6 rWAR, -0.7 fWAR -- F.   2nd half: no grade.   Overall grade: F

J.J. didn't play enough in the second half to affect his overall grade.

Tim Beckham 2nd half: .306/.348/.523, 10 HR, 26 RBI, 2.0 rWAR, 2.0 fWAR -- A-.   Overall grade: A-.

It's really hard to argue with a shortstop who played at a 6 WAR pace and had an .871 OPS.    I marked him down slightly because he was streaky at the plate and somewhat erratic in the field, even though the overall numbers were good.

Trey Mancini 1st half: .303/.351/.545, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 1.5 rWAR, 1.3 rWAR -- A.   2nd half: .285/.328/.446, 10 HR, 35 RBI, 0.7 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR -- B-.   Overall grade: B+.

Mancini was about the only hitter on the team who didn't collapse in September.    However, his second half wasn't quite up to his first half, and was more in line with what I would have expected going into the season from Mancini.

Hyun Soo Kim, .234/.308/.290, 1 HR, 8 RBI, -0.3 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR -- D.    2nd half: no grade.   Overall grade: D.

Kim didn't play much in the second half before being traded at the deadline.    His first half grade stands.

Adam Jones 1st half: .263/.299/.424, 13 HR, 35 RBI, 1.2 rWAR, 0.0 fWAR -- C-.    2nd half: .307/.345/.509, 13 HR, 38 RBI, 1.3 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR -- B+.    Overall grade: B-.

Jones had a nice offensive surge in the second half, though like many others he fizzled at the end, and in his case, he stopped playing entirely due to injuries.    Offensively he had a solid season, but his defense is slipping significantly.

Seth Smith 1st half:  .258/.332/.438, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 0.3 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR -- C.    2nd half: .257/.353/.426, 5 HR, 14 RBI -, 0.0 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR -- C.   Overall grade: C.

Smith's another guy who was good in July and August and swooned in September, and eventually Buck stopped playing him in favor of Hays.    Good OBP but not much else.

Mark Trumbo 1st half:  .253/.315/.409, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 0.3 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR -- C-.    2nd half: .209/.252/.381, 11 HR, 25 RBI, -0.9 rWAR, -0.9 fWAR -- F.    Overall grade: F.

He really fell off a cliff in the second half.   I considered bumping his full season grade up to a D- due to several high-leverage or walk-off hits he had, but overall he deserves the F.

Joey Rickard 1st half:  .252/.287/.378, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 0.3 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR -- C.    2nd half: .230/.265/.321, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 0.4 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR -- D-.   Overall grade: D+.

Rickard had a decent season defensively, but hasn't progressed offensively at all and will be challenged to make the team in 2018.

Welington Castillo 1st half: .272/.307/.439, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 0.6 rWAR, 1.0 fWAR -- C+.    2nd half: .292/.341/.547, 12 HR, 28 RBI, 1.5 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR --  B+.   Overall grade: B.

Probably the hardest guy to grade on the team, due to the fact that that 5 of our 6 starting pitchers did significantly worse when Castillo was catching.    Hard to know whether he's to blame, or if it is a coincidence, or a little of both.    Offensively, he exceeded expectations.

Caleb Joseph 1st half .294/.324/.441, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 1.3 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR -- A.    2nd half: .212/.244/.381, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 0.3 rWAR, -0.2 fWAR -- D.   Overall grade: B-.   

Joseph really stopped hitting in the second half, but at least he wasn't back to 2016 levels.     He does seem very slump-prone, and that makes me nervous going into 2018.

 

I'm not going to grade the other guys who only played a little bit.    Overall, I'd give the position players a C- on the season compared to what I expected.    They scored one fewer run in 2017 than 2016, despite offense being up in the league as a whole.   The outfield defense was subpar but better than in 2016, while the infield defense was slightly above average but a little down from 2016.   Overall, it was a somewhat disappointing performance by the position players, but not really outside of the expected range of performance as a group, despite significant individual failures.

I'll get to the pitchers later, and let everyone chew on these for a while.   Who do I have too high or too low?

 

[SteveA]

Good stuff, I can't disagree with too much.

I think the lack of response after 10+ hours has nothing to do with the effort you put into this or the quality of your assessments, and a lot more to do with "2017 Orioles Fatigue" that we are all suffering.   After September, we mostly all want to put 2017 behind us.   When you post the pitchers, I'll bite the bullet and force myself to read it, but you can't make me enjoy it!

[sportsfan8703]

37 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Good stuff, I can't disagree with too much.

I think the lack of response after 10+ hours has nothing to do with the effort you put into this or the quality of your assessments, and a lot more to do with "2017 Orioles Fatigue" that we are all suffering.   After September, we mostly all want to put 2017 behind us.   When you post the pitchers, I'll bite the bullet and force myself to read it, but you can't make me enjoy it!

We're just a boring team with only 2 MLB level SP's. Hard to stay motivated to talk about last year. 

[Chavez Ravine]

The player that jumps out for me is Davis.  Davis took my worst case fears for him, internalized them as his own, then went downhill from there.  If we get the same Davis next year do we really roll with him all year? The year after? Ugh.

[sportsfan8703]

8 hours ago, Chavez Ravine said:

The player that jumps out for me is Davis.  Davis took my worst case fears for him, internalized them as his own, then went downhill from there.  If we get the same Davis next year do we really roll with him all year? The year after? Ugh.

Not only did Davis have a terrible year, but most of the season he was hitting in the big RBI spots in front of Mancini. It's not like Davis had a bad year in the 7 hole.  He was a black hole in he middle of the lineup. 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Not only did Davis have a terrible year, but most of the season he was hitting in the big RBI spots in front of Mancini. It's not like Davis had a bad year in the 7 hole.  He was a black hole in he middle of the lineup. 

Davis had 298 baserunners on in 524 PA (.569 per PA).     Mancini had 328 baserunners on in 586 PA (.559 per PA).     The difference in RBI opportunities per PA was pretty negligible.

Trumbo, I think, was a bigger issue.    He had 375 baserunners on in 603 (.621 per PA).    

[Ripken]

They gotta move Trumbo for a #5 starter contract.  I'd bat Davis 9th... if I batted him at all.  Unbelievable waste of resources with massive pitching needs and Manny expiring.  Franchise crippling contract, and most knew that before it was ever signed. 

[tntoriole]

Overall agree...I would give Manny a B rather than a C and I would give Seth Smith a C- or D as I had more expectations of him, but good stuff overall.  

[TouchemAll]

On 10/13/2017 at 10:09 AM, Frobby said:

At the halfway point of the season (the 81 game mark, not the all-star break), I posted a thread citing the first half stats and handing out grades to the players.    In this thread, I'll do the same for the second half, and then an overall grade.    The first half stats and grades are repeated here for context, without the narrative from my earlier thread.    I'll do the position players in this post and the pitchers separately.   All grades are scaled to my expectations for the player.

Chris Davis 1st half: .226/.320/.461, 14 HR, 26 RBI, 0.5 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR -- D.   2nd half: .205/.299/.389, 12 HR, 35 RBI, -0.6 rWAR, -1.0 fWAR -- F.   Overall grade -- F.

As bad as Davis was in the first half, he was worse in the second half.    For the year, he was worth -0.1 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR.    For $23 mm, that's an F.

Jonathan Schoop 1st half: .293/.348/.538, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 1.6 rWAR, 1.9 fWAR -- B+.   2nd half: .292/.329/.473, 16 HR, 54 RBI. 3.5 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR -- A.    Overall grade -- A.

Schoop was very consistent through August, but like everyone else on the team, slumped in September.     His WAR improvement in the second half reflects that his defense was much better as the season went along.    Defensive miscues were the reason I'd downgraded him to a B+ in the first half, so overall, he deserves an A.

Manny Machado 1st half: .217/.288/.428, 16 HR, 41 RBI, 1.1 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR -- D.    Second half: .296/.337/.511, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 2.4 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR -- B.   Overall grade -- C.

Manny played great in July and August (when he was AL player of the month), but really cooled off in September.     Overall, he was much more inconsistent than in the two previous seasons, and his defense wasn't quite as good.   The bar is very high for Manny, so his 3.5 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR season only warrants a C.

J.J. Hardy 1st half: .211/.248/.308, 3 HR, 21 RBI, -0.6 rWAR, -0.7 fWAR -- F.   2nd half: no grade.   Overall grade: F

J.J. didn't play enough in the second half to affect his overall grade.

Tim Beckham 2nd half: .306/.348/.523, 10 HR, 26 RBI, 2.0 rWAR, 2.0 fWAR -- A-.   Overall grade: A-.

It's really hard to argue with a shortstop who played at a 6 WAR pace and had an .871 OPS.    I marked him down slightly because he was streaky at the plate and somewhat erratic in the field, even though the overall numbers were good.

Trey Mancini 1st half: .303/.351/.545, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 1.5 rWAR, 1.3 rWAR -- A.   2nd half: .285/.328/.446, 10 HR, 35 RBI, 0.7 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR -- B-.   Overall grade: B+.

Mancini was about the only hitter on the team who didn't collapse in September.    However, his second half wasn't quite up to his first half, and was more in line with what I would have expected going into the season from Mancini.

Hyun Soo Kim, .234/.308/.290, 1 HR, 8 RBI, -0.3 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR -- D.    2nd half: no grade.   Overall grade: D.

Kim didn't play much in the second half before being traded at the deadline.    His first half grade stands.

Adam Jones 1st half: .263/.299/.424, 13 HR, 35 RBI, 1.2 rWAR, 0.0 fWAR -- C-.    2nd half: .307/.345/.509, 13 HR, 38 RBI, 1.3 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR -- B+.    Overall grade: B-.

Jones had a nice offensive surge in the second half, though like many others he fizzled at the end, and in his case, he stopped playing entirely due to injuries.    Offensively he had a solid season, but his defense is slipping significantly.

Seth Smith 1st half:  .258/.332/.438, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 0.3 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR -- C.    2nd half: .257/.353/.426, 5 HR, 14 RBI -, 0.0 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR -- C.   Overall grade: C.

Smith's another guy who was good in July and August and swooned in September, and eventually Buck stopped playing him in favor of Hays.    Good OBP but not much else.

Mark Trumbo 1st half:  .253/.315/.409, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 0.3 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR -- C-.    2nd half: .209/.252/.381, 11 HR, 25 RBI, -0.9 rWAR, -0.9 fWAR -- F.    Overall grade: F.

He really fell off a cliff in the second half.   I considered bumping his full season grade up to a D- due to several high-leverage or walk-off hits he had, but overall he deserves the F.

Joey Rickard 1st half:  .252/.287/.378, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 0.3 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR -- C.    2nd half: .230/.265/.321, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 0.4 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR -- D-.   Overall grade: D+.

Rickard had a decent season defensively, but hasn't progressed offensively at all and will be challenged to make the team in 2018.

Welington Castillo 1st half: .272/.307/.439, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 0.6 rWAR, 1.0 fWAR -- C+.    2nd half: .292/.341/.547, 12 HR, 28 RBI, 1.5 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR --  B+.   Overall grade: B.

Probably the hardest guy to grade on the team, due to the fact that that 5 of our 6 starting pitchers did significantly worse when Castillo was catching.    Hard to know whether he's to blame, or if it is a coincidence, or a little of both.    Offensively, he exceeded expectations.

Caleb Joseph 1st half .294/.324/.441, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 1.3 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR -- A.    2nd half: .212/.244/.381, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 0.3 rWAR, -0.2 fWAR -- D.   Overall grade: B-.   

Joseph really stopped hitting in the second half, but at least he wasn't back to 2016 levels.     He does seem very slump-prone, and that makes me nervous going into 2018.

 

I'm not going to grade the other guys who only played a little bit.    Overall, I'd give the position players a C- on the season compared to what I expected.    They scored one fewer run in 2017 than 2016, despite offense being up in the league as a whole.   The outfield defense was subpar but better than in 2016, while the infield defense was slightly above average but a little down from 2016.   Overall, it was a somewhat disappointing performance by the position players, but not really outside of the expected range of performance as a group, despite significant individual failures.

I'll get to the pitchers later, and let everyone chew on these for a while.   Who do I have too high or too low?

 

Pretty Fair I don't disagree with any of them

[LA2]

8 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Overall agree...I would give Manny a B rather than a C and I would give Seth Smith a C- or D as I had more expectations of him, but good stuff overall.  

Smith did pretty much what he's done his whole career (2017: .258/.340/.774 vs. Career: .261 / .344 / .790) but it was disproportionately beneficial to have him playing RF rather than Trumbo, who seemed to only get worse this year (personal impression, haven't looked at the defensive stats).

[Mitch Connor]

I'd also like to grade Dan Duquette with an F. We came into another year needing starting pitching and he did NOTHING to improve our rotation. Will he ever address this need with legitimate pitching?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Mitch Connor said:

I'd also like to grade Dan Duquette with an F. We came into another year needing starting pitching and he did NOTHING to improve our rotation. Will he ever address this need with legitimate pitching?

Shouldn't he get some credit for signing Trumbo to an above market three year deal?

[Tx Oriole]

4 hours ago, Mitch Connor said:

I'd also like to grade Dan Duquette with an F. We came into another year needing starting pitching and he did NOTHING to improve our rotation. Will he ever address this need with legitimate pitching?

No he won't I'm afraid. Angelos probably wouldn't let him anyway.

[foxfield]

Frobby, as always this is very well done.  I would only challenge Castillo.  While I agree that his grade is challenged by the uncertainty of pitchers performing worse when he was behind the plate, I believe that given expectations (which is your stated filter) unless your expectations were higher than I think, he exceeded them by quite a bit.  

[Frobby]

Now for the pitchers -- ugh!

Dylan Bundy 1st half: 8-7, 103.0 IP, 4.02 ERA, 2.1 rWAR, 1.0 fWAR -- B.   2nd half: 5-2, 66.1 IP, 4.59 ERA, 0.6 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR -- C.   Overall grade: B-.  

The O's went to great lengths to protect Bundy in the second half, skipping his turn or stretching it several times.   He still had more good starts than bad ones, but wasn't as strong in the second half.   A good season to grow on, I think.

Kevin Gausman 1st half: 5-7, 93.0 IP, 5.61 ERA, 0.2 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR -- D-.    Second half: 6-5, 93.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.6 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR -- B.    Overall grade: C-.    

Gausman had a strong second half, but when he had bad games, they were really bad.    Overall, a disappointing year for Gaus, but at least he ended on a high note.

Ubaldo Jimenez 1st half: 3-3, 73.0 IP, 6.48 ERA, -0.2 rWAR, -0.2 fWAR -- F.    2nd half: 3-8, 69.0 IP, 7.17 ERA, -1.1 rWAR, +0.3 fWAR -- F.   Overall grade: F.

 At least he was consistent in the two halves.

Chris Tillman 1st half: 1-5, 49.0 IP, 7.90 ERA, -1.2 rWAR, -0.2 fWAR -- F.   2nd half: 0-2, 44.0 IP, 7.77 ERA, -1.0 rWAR, -0.8 fWAR -- F.  Overall grade: F. 

Unfortunately, Tillman also was consistent between the two halves.

Wade Miley 1st half: 3-6, 81.1 IP, 4.54 ERA, 0.4 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR -- C.   2nd half: 5-9, 76.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, -0.7 rWAR, 0.0 fWAR -- F.   Overall grade: D-.  

I could argue for an F here, too, but I'll remember that he was decent for the first quarter of the season or so.

Jeremy Hellickson 1st half: no grade.    2nd half: 2-6, 51.2 IP, 6.97 ERA -- F.    Overall grade: F.   

Brought in to help staunch the bleeding, he failed to do so.   

Alec Asher 1st half:  2-5, 55.1 IP, 5.53 ERA, -0.1 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR -- C-.  2nd half: No grade.   Overall grade: C-.  

He only pitched 4.2 innings in the second half, so no reason to change his grade.

Zach Britton 1st half: no grade.    2nd half: 2-1, 28.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 10/12 saves -- C-.    Overall grade: C-.   

Zach never really got his game in gear this year, and was shelved towards the end with a sore knee.

Brad Brach 1st half: 2-1, 36.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 15/19 saves, 0.6 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR -- C+.   2nd half: 2-4, 31.2 IP, 3.69 ERA, 0.6 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR -- C.   Overall grade: C.  

Brach seemed pretty vulnerable throughout the second half.   I think heavy usage in the first two months really caught up with him.    

Darren O'Day 1st half: 1-2, 27.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 0.3 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR -- C.   2nd half: 1-1, 33.0 IP, 2.73 ERA, 0.7 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR -- B.   Overall grade: C+.  

I could argue for a B- here, but at his salary, you'd hope for more.    O'Day was looking a lot like his old self at the end of the season.

Mychal Givens 1st half:  6-0, 41.0 IP, 2.41 ERA, 1.5 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR -- A.   2nd half: 2-1, 37.2 IP, 3.11 ERA, 0.8 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR -- B.    Overall grade: B+.   

He continued to have a pretty heavy workload in the second half, and began showing the strain toward the end.    Overall, he was our best, most consistent reliever this year. 

Richard Bleier 1st half: 1-1, 25.2 IP, 2.94 ERA, 0.6 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR -- B+.     2nd half: 1-0, 37.2 IP, 2.15 ERA, 0.7 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR -- A.  Overall grade:  A-.   

Considering I had basically zero expectations for Bleier going into the season, it's hard to argue with his performance.    He never really seemed all that spectacular, but it's hard to argue with the bottom line.

Donnie Hart 1st half: 1-0, 22.0 IP, 3.27 ERA, 0.0 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR -- C+.   2nd half: 1-0, 21.2 IP, 4.15 ERA, 0.6 rWAR, -0.5 fWAR -- C-.   Overall grade: C.    

I never felt really confident with Hart in the game this year.  

Miguel Castro 1st half: no grade.   2nd half: 2-3, 53.0 IP, 3.57 ERA -- B.   Overall grade: B.    Castro was really effective in July and August, then faded badly in September.    I think it was a case of fatigue, as Buck leaned very heavily on him over the summer months.    Overall, he had a promising Orioles debut.

 

Overall, the team had a 5.03 ERA in the first half, 4.90 in the second half.    The starters had a 5.53 ERA in the first half, and 5.88 in the second half.   Hard to believe they could get worse, but they did.   The starters get an F for both halves and for the year.    The bullpen had a 4.32 ERA in the first half, 3.50 in the second half --  C- and B for them, final grade of C+.    Overall, the bullpen was slightly above average for the league but not up to the standards of the preceding few years.   The starters were so bad that the overall second half grade for the staff as a whole is still an F, as is the final grade.