I wonder if it’s possible for somebody to do an analysis on...

[higgybaby]

I wonder if it’s possible for somebody to do an analysis on...

What would the orioles record have been had Ubaldo, Miley and Tillman been replaced with Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb and Miguel Gonzalez this past season?

It can’t be as simple as just switch their records out would it?  Would you have to use some advanced metrics to figure it out?

 

[Frobby]

It would all be hypothetical.   No metric could give you an actual answer, just a hypothetical result.  

I'd note that these pitchers' teams didn't do particularly well when they pitched: 40-49 overall.    Would the Orioles have done better than that with the same pitching performances?   Who knows?   And who's to say they would have performed the same in Baltimore as they did for the teams they played for.  

The O's were 35-41 in games started by the Three Enfuegos.

[higgybaby]

I know it would all be hypothetical but I wonder if factoring in runs per game, defensive stats and some other  team stats that I’m sure I’m not thinking of, could there be some sort of way to estimate the teams success or not success vs what we had to deal with last year?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, higgybaby said:

I know it would all be hypothetical but I wonder if factoring in runs per game, defensive stats and some other  team stats that I’m sure I’m not thinking of, could there be some sort of way to estimate the teams success or not success vs what we had to deal with last year?

With that kind of talent infusion they could have finished ahead of the Blue Jays in the standings.

[higgybaby]

I guess what my question boils down to is whether or not signing these pitchers would even move the needle enough for us to contend for the playoffs?

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, higgybaby said:

I know it would all be hypothetical but I wonder if factoring in runs per game, defensive stats and some other  team stats that I’m sure I’m not thinking of, could there be some sort of way to estimate the teams success or not success vs what we had to deal with last year?

Well, in theory it should be about as simple as looking at the difference in their WAR totals (+6.6 vs. -3.8), so roughly 10 wins.   But in reality it could have been much higher or lower than that.   

[SteveA]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, in theory it should be about as simple as looking at the difference in their WAR totals (+6.6 vs. -3.8), so roughly 10 wins.   But in reality it could have been much higher or lower than that.   

Of course, if those pitchers had pitched significantly deeper into games than the guys they were replacing, we would have been able to use fewer relief innings, which could have resulted in guys like Brach and Castro not being tired in September and led to better performance (thus more WAR) from those guys.

Hypothetical of course but it's all interconnected.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

Of course, if those pitchers had pitched significantly deeper into games than the guys they were replacing, we would have been able to use fewer relief innings, which could have resulted in guys like Brach and Castro not being tired in September and led to better performance (thus more WAR) from those guys.

Hypothetical of course but it's all interconnected.

I completely agree.   I'd certainly like our chances with those three.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, in theory it should be about as simple as looking at the difference in their WAR totals (+6.6 vs. -3.8), so roughly 10 wins.   But in reality it could have been much higher or lower than that.   

Which flavor of WAR are you using?

[SteveA]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Which flavor of WAR are you using?

I try to use whichever one proves the point I am trying to make more.  

[higgybaby]

Right.  Looking at things like innings pitched and how it would impact our bullpen. And ground ball vs fly ball pitcher and how that matches up with our defensive strengths and weaknesses. Would playing on our team have theoretically negatively or positively affected their success as pitchers in 2017?

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

I try to use whichever one proves the point I am trying to make more.  

Same here.

But in this instance it actually matters since rWAR is more actual results based and fWAR is more FIP reliant.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which flavor of WAR are you using?

I used rWAR.   By fWAR it's 5.2 vs. -0.1, so 5 wins.    

PS -- just used rWAR because I usually go there first, not because I expected it to yield a bigger difference.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I used rWAR.   By fWAR it's 5.2 vs. -0.1, so 5 wins.    

PS -- just used rWAR because I usually go there first, not because I expected it to yield a bigger difference.   

I wouldn't expect you to use tricks like Steve and I.

Thanks for the info.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wouldn't expect you to use tricks like Steve and I.

Thanks for the info.

Oh, believe me, I'm capable of it.   But I didn't really have a point to make in this instance.    

I'm not a huge fan of pitcher fWAR, though.    By that measure, Ubaldo was in positive territory all four years he was here (+4.9 overall).    That is so contrary to what I witnessed that I just can't put much credence in it.   rWAR had him in negative territory in 2014 and 2017, reasonably positive in 2015 and just barely positive in 2016, and worth 0.9 overall.    That just seems a lot closer to the truth.