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How long before the O's convert Brad Brach to a starter?


wildcard

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The O's need 4 starters.  Three in the rotation and one other they can count on when injuries hit.   They have $30m to acquire them. But is it "confederate money"?   That is a term that was coined in the early 2000's  when the O's would bid on starters but they would sign with other clubs rather the play in Camden Yards.   Roch poses this morning that Cobb will be to expensive for the Orioles.   He is probably right.   And it is probably just the beginning of the list of starters the O's might want but will not get.

Buck said in an interview with WBAL this week the one of the ways they may fill a starter spot is move a reliever to the rotation. The reliever that comes immediately to mind is Miguel Castro.   He was much discussed in the final weeks on the season as someone that may be a starter next year.   But which reliever has the best assortment of pitches to be converted.  That may be Brach.   He has three quality pitches.   He started in college.   He has been healthy through his time with the O's.   Mycheal Givens is ready to move into his setup role with Darren O'Day.     It is a lot easier to obtain a quality reliever to replace Givens last year role than to acquire a starter.   A two year 8m contract would probably get the O's Tommy Hunter who was very good for Tampa last year.  He is only 31.

I think the O's could move Brach to a starter and extend him.  I think this idea will be more talked about the further the O's get into the off season and see free agent starters sign elsewhere. 

What do you think?

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Never.

He'll be 32 years old and in his walk year in 2018. He hasn't started a game since college. In 355 professional appearances, beginning in 2008. he has never started a game. His longest appearance in 2017 was 2.0 innings.

Brach is at an age when many starters are losing their stuff and transitioning to the bullpen. I don't expect him to go the other way.

Ever.

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I think it's a damn good idea.

Ive been looking at all the FA starters available and the many many teams who are looking, and I just don't see the Os bringing in two decent FA starters.

I think maybe we could get one. Then add a Miguel Gonzalez or Chris Tillman type back end, hope for the best, type. If we could get someone like Brach to just put up about 170 innings and a 4.6 ERA... that would be a major help.

I still see Ynoa and Castro competing for starts too. 

My big question is what FA starter do we target if not Cobb? 

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Brach is a max effort delivery guy. He has not started in what, 10 years? Does he have a ML average third pitch, change up? Hopefully, Brach has value to someone as a back end option and we move him this off season.

I would think Miguel Castro is the guy to move into a starter role. There was talk of Bleier becoming a starter as well, but I'm not sure how serious that was. He did have 170 innings as a starter, almost exclusively, in 2015. He has been a starter for most of his pro career, so not foreign to him. Would have to stretch him out, but it is an option. As you may expect, his stuff is short and K/9 is quite low as a starter.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bleier001ric

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1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

Never.

He'll be 32 years old and in his walk year in 2018. He hasn't started a game since college. In 355 professional appearances, beginning in 2008. he has never started a game. His longest appearance in 2017 was 2.0 innings.

Brach is at an age when many starters are losing their stuff and transitioning to the bullpen. I don't expect him to go the other way.

Ever.

That's a good point. 

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

The O's need 4 starters.  Three in the rotation and one other they can count on when injuries hit.   They have $30m to acquire them. But is it "confederate money"?   That is a term that was coined in the early 2000's  when the O's would bid on starters but they would sign with other clubs rather the play in Camden Yards.   Roch poses this morning that Cobb will be to expensive for the Orioles.   He is probably right.   And it is probably just the beginning for the list of starters the O's might want but will not get.

Buck said in an interview with WBAL this week the one of the ways they may fill a starter spot is move a reliever to the rotation. The reliever that comes immediately to mind is Miguel Castro.   He was much discussed in the final weeks on the season as someone that may be a starter next year.   But which reliever has the best assortment of pitches to be converted.  That may be Brach.   He has three quality pitches.   He started in college.   He has been healthy through his time with the O's.   Mycheal Givens is ready to move into his setup role with Darren O'Day.     It is a lot easier to obtain a quality reliever to replace Givens last year role than to acquire a starter.   A two year 8m contract would probably get the O's Tommy Hunter who was very good for Tampa last year.  He is only 31.

I think the O's could move Brach to a starter and extend him.  I think this idea will be more talked about the further the O's get into the off season and see free agent starters sign elsewhere. 

What do you think?

TOR , TEX, and BOS are all rated above BAL as hitters' parks. It doesn't seem to discourage TOR SP's from signing with them. If you pay them they will come.

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Pitch Repertoire At-A-Glance 

Brad Brach has thrown 7,196 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2010 and 2017, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason, Spring Training and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2017, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (95mph) and Change (87mph), also mixing in a Slider (87mph). He also rarely throws a Sinker (94mph).

BETA Feature:
Basic description of 2017 pitches compared to other RHP:
His fourseam fastball generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' fourseamers and has slightly above average velo. His change dives down out of the zone, generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers' changeups, is much firmer than usual and has slight armside fade. His slider is a prototypical pitch with few remarkable qualities. His sinker generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' sinkers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers' sinkers, has slightly above average velo and has some natural sinking action. 

From Brooks Baseball

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2 hours ago, El Gordo said:

TOR , TEX, and BOS are all rated above BAL as hitters' parks. It doesn't seem to discourage TOR SP's from signing with them. If you pay them they will come.

Let's take a look at that.   

Boston Red Sox 

Porcello, Rodriguez, Sale, and Pomeranz all acquire through trades

Price signed as a Free Agent 7/217m.  O's would never do that.

Texas Rangers

Texas Ranger ERA was almost as bad as the O's (4.66)

Martin Perez and Nick Martinez - signed and developed by the Ranger farm system.

Hammels  acquired in trade.

Cashner signed as free agent but he is from Texas.  Location bias.

Darvish signed as  free agent 6/108m. O's are not doing that.

Griffin - signed as a free agent after Tommy John surgery and a shoulder injury.   He has been with the Rangers for two season.  Both season with ERAs over 5.00 ERA.

Toronto Blue Jays

Stroman and Sanchez signed and develop by the Jays farm system

Estrada and Liriano  acquired through trade.  Estrada did go FA but returned.

Biagini was a waiver claim

Anderson was signed to a minor league a contract.

Happ was a free agent signing.3/36

Summary

Out of the 19 starters pitching for these 3 clubs that play in hitters parks only two major league FA were signed that were less than 100m.  Happ  And one of those had a location bias. Cashner.  Darvish and Price cost over 100m..

The others were acquired through trades, farm system development, waiver claims, minor league contracts coming off injuries.

So when you say they will come if the O's pay them enough you are really for the most part talking about spend 100m or  more.  Which the O's will not do.

On a normal basis healthy, good FA pitchers do not sign to play in hitters parks unless they are way overpaid.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Let's take a look at that.   

Boston Red Sox 

Porcello, Rodriguez, Sale, and Pomeranz all acquire through trades

Price signed as a Free Agent 7/217m.  O's would never do that.

Texas Rangers

Texas Ranger ERA was almost as bad as the O's (4.66)

Martin Perez and Nick Martinez - signed and developed by the Ranger farm system.

Hammels  acquired in trade.

Cashner signed as free agent but he is from Texas.  Location bias.

Darvish signed as  free agent 6/108m. O's are not doing that.

Griffin - signed as a free agent after Tommy John surgery and a shoulder injury.   He has been with the Rangers for two season.  Both season with ERAs over 5.00 ERA.

Toronto Blue Jays

Stroman and Sanchez signed and develop by the Jays farm system

Estrada and Liriano  acquired through trade.  Estrada did go FA but returned.

Biagini was a waiver claim

Anderson was signed to a minor league a contract.

Happ was a free agent signing.3/36

Summary

Out of the 19 starters pitching for these 3 clubs that play in hitters parks only two major league FA were signed that were less than 100m.  Happ  And one of those had a location bias. Cashner.  Darvish and Price cost over 100m..

The others were acquired through trades, farm system development, waiver claims, minor league contracts coming off injuries.

So when you say they will come if the O's pay them enough you are really for the most part talking about spend 100m or  more.  Which the O's will not do.

On a normal basis healthy, good FA pitchers do not sign to play in hitters parks unless they are way overpaid.

 

 

Cobb, Cashner, Lynn, CC, Vargas, Dickey, Pineda,  Chatwood, and Chacin could all help the O's next year and none will cost 100M.

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22 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Cobb, Cashner, Lynn, CC, Vargas, Dickey, Pineda,  Chatwood, and Chacin could all help the O's next year and none will cost 100M.

You missed the point of the research.  For the most part these kind on starting FA do not sign with teams that play in hitting parks.    Happ was one out of 19 on the three clubs rosters.  

The O's may be able to afford them but the pitchers gets to pick where he plays.   And they don't have to pick a team where the odds are against them  being successful That is a major factor in where they go.  

Add to that the O's as a last place team and it will be very difficult to get those guys to come to the O's.

Trades, converting relievers, minor leaguers and a guy like Tillman who wants to be with the O's are where I expect this off season to go.

You picked the teams.  That is what the research shows.

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Just now, wildcard said:

You missed the point of the research.  For the most part these kind on starting FA do not sign with teams that play in hitting parks.    Happ was one out of 19 on the three clubs rosters.  

The O's may be able to afford them but the pitchers gets to pick where he plays.   And they don't have to pick a team where the odds are against them  being successful That is a major factor in where they go.  

Add to that the O's as a last place team and it will be very difficult to get those guys to come to the O's.

Trades, converting relievers, minor leaguers and a guy like Tillman who wants to be with the O's are where I expect this off season to go.

And you miss my point: they will play here if you offer them the most money and that wont be near 100 M.

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10 hours ago, El Gordo said:

And you miss my point: they will play here if you offer them the most money and that wont be near 100 M.

Maybe if the O's overpay by adding an extra year or an another 2m per year over the best bid on the market from other teams.

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