Schoop Extension Talks

[Satyr3206]

Give it a year or two. That will be a good investment.

[24fps]

4 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

Give it a year or two. That will be a good investment.

Schoop would have to earn around $45 million in the next year or two for the investment to reach the break even point.  That includes endorsments etc.  I don't know if the percentage is calculated before or after agent commissions, but that shouldn't matter overly much.  It's unlikely Schoop will earn that much in so short a time.  If you figure a steady 5% return on conventional investments vs. Schoop's deal, my very rough estimate is it will take 4-8 years for the deal to get into the black compared to other options.  That's assuming Schoop's career trajectory continues on it's current path and IMO that's a big enough assumption for this to be a much riskier gamble than most people believe.

It's a very sporting investment proposition (pun fully intended) for the investor, but I wouldn't risk money I couldn't afford to lose.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Schoop would have to earn around $45 million in the next year or two for the investment to reach the break even point.  That includes endorsments etc.  I don't know if the percentage is calculated before or after agent commissions, but that shouldn't matter overly much.  It's unlikely Schoop will earn that much in so short a time.  If you figure a steady 5% return on conventional investments vs. Schoop's deal, my very rough estimate is it will take 4-8 years for the deal to get into the black compared to other options.  That's assuming Schoop's career trajectory continues on it's current path and IMO that's a big enough assumption for this to be a much riskier gamble than most people believe.

It's a very sporting investment proposition (pun fully intended) for the investor, but I wouldn't risk money I couldn't afford to lose.

In terms of cash in hand, Schoop probably won’t have earned $49 mm until 2021 at the earliest.    However, there’s a high likelihood that before the 2020 season is played, he’ll have been signed to a contract that guarantees his lifetime earnings will exceed $49 mm, and probably by a substantial margin.  

[MDtransplant757]

https://rover.ebay.com/rover/0/0/0?mpre=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ebay.com%2Fulk%2Fitm%2F322916260374

Schoop will either get the money he wants here or make truck loads of it in FA. 

https://rover.ebay.com/rover/0/0/0?mpre=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ebay.com%2Fulk%2Fitm%2F322916260374

 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

In terms of cash in hand, Schoop probably won’t have earned $49 mm until 2021 at the earliest.    However, there’s a high likelihood that before the 2020 season is played, he’ll have been signed to a contract that guarantees his lifetime earnings will exceed $49 mm, and probably by a substantial margin.  

$49 million by 2021 still leaves Fantex's investors around $1.8 million in the red if you grant a 5% compounded ROI on that $4.91million spread over more conventional options from 2016-2021.   If you are correct in estimating 2021, then it will be a year or two after before investors start to see greater returns that they would have gotten elsewhere.  And almost certainly with more overall risk.  Somewhere and somehow Fantex has calculated a break even point for every player.  It's impossible to know from the outside, but my guess is somewhere around the age 31 or 32 season in Schoop's case.  That they made the calculation before Schoop had put up 4 WAR is more interesting to me than anything else.

There is certainly potential for making money but not a killing unless you are luckier than you deserve to be.  If I were going to go the Fantex route, I would buy shares in at least 3 players to have some hedge against the premature end to any one player's career.

[Luke-OH]

22 minutes ago, 24fps said:

$49 million by 2021 still leaves Fantex's investors around $1.8 million in the red if you grant a 5% compounded ROI on that $4.91million spread over more conventional options from 2016-2021.   If you are correct in estimating 2021, then it will be a year or two after before investors start to see greater returns that they would have gotten elsewhere.  And almost certainly with less risk.  Somewhere and somehow Fantex has calculated a break even point for every player.  It's impossible to know from the outside, but my guess is somewhere around the age 31 or 32 season in Schoop's case.  That they made the calculation before Schoop had put up 4 WAR is more interesting to me than anything else.

There is certainly potential for making money but not a killing unless you are luckier than you deserve to be.  If I were going to go the Fantex route, I would buy shares in at least 3 players to have some hedge against the premature end to any one player's career.

They have like 6 mlb players signed I believe. Schoop got the largest payout.  It’s definitely risky because of the chance of poor performance and injury, but I’m guessing one of the assumptions investors made was in the continuing growth in MLB revenues and contract sizes.

Also I’d imagine the investors who put the cash up have their money in stocks, bonds, real estate, etc as well and this was just a fun way to further diversify.

[24fps]

15 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

They have like 6 mlb players signed I believe. Schoop got the largest payout.  It’s definitely risky because of the chance of poor performance and injury, but I’m guessing one of the assumptions investors made was in the continuing growth in MLB revenues and contract sizes.

Also I’d imagine the investors who put the cash up have their money in stocks, bonds, real estate, etc as well and this was just a fun way to further diversify.

Inflated expectations about future investment growth are as American as hot dogs at baseball games.

I suspect that most if not all of the investors have drawn primarily from their entertainment budgets for this.  I also suspect (complete speculation) that Fantex doesn't have any money of their own at risk and only do this to collect commissions from placing gamblers - err serious investors - into these deals.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, 24fps said:

$49 million by 2021 still leaves Fantex's investors around $1.8 million in the red if you grant a 5% compounded ROI on that $4.91million spread over more conventional options from 2016-2021.   If you are correct in estimating 2021, then it will be a year or two after before investors start to see greater returns that they would have gotten elsewhere.  And almost certainly with less risk.  Somewhere and somehow Fantex has calculated a break even point for every player.  It's impossible to know from the outside, but my guess is somewhere around the age 31 or 32 season in Schoop's case.  That they made the calculation before Schoop had put up 4 WAR is more interesting to me than anything else.

There is certainly potential for making money but not a killing unless you are luckier than you deserve to be.  If I were going to go the Fantex route, I would buy shares in at least 3 players to have some hedge against the premature end to any one player's career.

In Schoop’s case, he was bundled with several other athletes.    There were some players whose “shares” were sold individually.

As to whether you could make a “killing” on Schoop, I guess it depends how you define that term, but I’d more or less agree with you.   You might earn a 100-200% return over a 10-15 year period if things went extremely well.