PECOTA 2018

[SteveA]

Just now, Frobby said:

We didn’t exceed it last year.   

I thought we did, just barely???

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I thought we did, just barely???

You’re right - they initially projected 71, and moved it to 73 during spring training.   Still below the 75 we won.   

[Frobby]

Individual OPS projections:

Joseph .637

Sisco .732

Davis .806

Schoop .751

Beckham .719

Machado .814

Mancini .808

Jones .757

Rickard .706

Hays .784

Trumbo .742

Santander .742

Rotation:

Bundy 171 IP, 4.72 ERA

Gausman 171 IP, 4.62 ERA

Asher 127 IP, 5.74 ERA

Ynoa 115 IP, 5.48 ERA

Wright 136 IP, 5.13 ERA

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=BAL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Beef Supreme]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

We didn’t exceed it last year.  

One bad month bailed out PECOTA for being wildly wrong about the Orioles for a sixth consecutive year.

And, yeah. Tampa at 84 wins? :rofl: Do the projection services consistently over-estimate the Rays?

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

One bad month bailed out PECOTA for being wildly wrong about the Orioles for a sixth consecutive year.

We ended our season at a low point, but we were under .500 a lot more days than we were over it during the season.   

[Frobby]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37603/flu-like-symptoms-pecota-hates-favorite-team/

[TommyPickles]

I think Bundy, Gausman, and the Orioles will exceed those projections.

Curious to see what pitcher(s) we bring in though.

[LookitsPuck]

69 wins is too generous given that we have 2 starters and a bunch of randos that wouldn't be in any other team's rotation.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

69 wins is too generous given that we have 2 starters and a bunch of randos that wouldn't be in any other team's rotation.

We won 75 games last year with Ubaldo, Tillman and Miley combining for 393 innings at a 6.57 ERA.    PECOTA has Asher, Ynoa and Wright combining for 378 innings at a 5.44 ERA.     So, 69 wins doesn’t sound too high to me.    Just because last year’s starters were guys whose names we’ve heard of doesn’t mean that AAAA fodder couldn’t do as well or better this year.

That said, we all understand that the team’s slim chance of contending for a wild card spot hinges on acquiring some better pitchers before this offseason is over.    

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

We won 75 games last year with Ubaldo, Tillman and Miley combining for 393 innings at a 6.57 ERA.    PECOTA has Asher, Ynoa and Wright combining for 378 innings at a 5.44 ERA.     So, 69 wins doesn’t sound too high to me.    Just because last year’s starters were guys whose names we’ve heard of doesn’t mean that AAAA fodder couldn’t do as well or better this year.

That said, we all understand that the team’s slim chance of contending for a wild card spot hinges on acquiring some better pitchers before this offseason is over.    

For all of the frustration we have surrounding our perfect storm...I am seeing a break in the clouds.  On one hand, we DO all understand that the teams slim chance of continuing for a wild card spot hinges on acquiring some better pitchers before the offseason is over.  The silver lining is that when we say better, we mean of course better than the garbage that we trotted out last year, which was the worst in baseball.  The good news is that 4 of those arms will not be back and the replacements almost certainly will be better.

I am of course not unaware that the odds are small.  If you remember the break in the clouds in the movie the Perfect Storm....this was the calm before the ultimate destruction where George Clooney realizes "she's not gonna let us out!"

  

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

We won 75 games last year with Ubaldo, Tillman and Miley combining for 393 innings at a 6.57 ERA.    PECOTA has Asher, Ynoa and Wright combining for 378 innings at a 5.44 ERA.     So, 69 wins doesn’t sound too high to me.    Just because last year’s starters were guys whose names we’ve heard of doesn’t mean that AAAA fodder couldn’t do as well or better this year.

That said, we all understand that the team’s slim chance of contending for a wild card spot hinges on acquiring some better pitchers before this offseason is over.    

The problem is Asher hasn't thrown more than 60 innings in the majors. Ynoa? 34. Wright? 74.

Asher had an ERA of 6.98 as a starter with the Orioles. Granted, it was only 30 IP. 

I'm not sure if PECOTA is going to be accurate for these 3. I'd take the over on a combined 5.44 ERA. Also those 378 innings amount to roughly 126 IP per starter. The 2017 rotation threw 846 innings. So on average, let's just net out 170 IP. That assumes everybody is healthy. If not, we continue to see guys like Hellickson (who had an ERA near 7) and Asher and the like. The O's trotted out any number of starters last year and they got shellacked. 

And, yes, the O's won 75 games. Which is/was impressive in its own right. Keep in mind they're not going to have Britton. The offense is aging further and is still overly reliant on homers.

I think as constructed 69 games is generous with the rotation as is. But even if you don't agree with 69 games as a litmus, I couldn't go any further than 72. This team has bad written all over it. It's too outclassed in the division.

Barring the Orioles picking up 3 legitimate starters, this season seems like a lost cause that would need nothing short of a miracle to contend. Which makes it all the more aggravating that it's now February 8th and Machado is still on the club with Britton shelved and a rotation that is only 2/5 filled. Just seems like aimless wandering by Duquette and team. :shrug:

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

The problem is Asher hasn't thrown more than 60 innings in the majors. Ynoa? 34. Wright? 74.

Asher had an ERA of 6.98 as a starter with the Orioles. Granted, it was only 30 IP. 

I'm not sure if PECOTA is going to be accurate for these 3. I'd take the over on a combined 5.44 ERA. Also those 378 innings amount to roughly 126 IP per starter. The 2017 rotation threw 846 innings. So on average, let's just net out 170 IP. That assumes everybody is healthy. If not, we continue to see guys like Hellickson (who had an ERA near 7) and Asher and the like. The O's trotted out any number of starters last year and they got shellacked. 

And, yes, the O's won 75 games. Which is/was impressive in its own right. Keep in mind they're not going to have Britton. The offense is aging further and is still overly reliant on homers.

I think as constructed 69 games is generous with the rotation as is. But even if you don't agree with 69 games as a litmus, I couldn't go any further than 72. This team has bad written all over it. It's too outclassed in the division.

Barring the Orioles picking up 3 legitimate starters, this season seems like a lost cause that would need nothing short of a miracle to contend. Which makes it all the more aggravating that it's now February 8th and Machado is still on the club with Britton shelved and a rotation that is only 2/5 filled. Just seems like aimless wandering by Duquette and team. :shrug:

I’m not really going to disagree with you.   As to how many games I think they’ll win, ask me after I see what they do between now and opening day.    I’d say the odds that Asher, Ynoa and Wright turn out to be our no. 3-5 starters are less than 5%.     They’ll end up with a couple of established guys, though whether they’ll be any better remains to be seen.   

[cliff]

I would take the over on 69 wins in a heartbeat. That's based on the roster as of today, and that's NOT going to be the roster on Opening Day. Even if it was, I might still take the over. 

Vegas has the Orioles at 77.5 ...that number is a little scarier for a betting man.
https://infogram.com/mlb-win-totals-1h7g6km981zj4oy

FWIW, they list taking the under on the O's as a "value play" because of the fact that Manny might get traded and their starting pitching sucks (as of now). 

[gtman55]

My guess is we might win 75-80 games tops and I'm basing that on bringing in some more pitching.

[Luke-OH]

I think it’s important to remember that even though the Orioles rotation is currently made up of “nobodies”, those pitchers are likely to outperform Miley, Ubaldo, and Tillman's 2017. Those 3 combined to produce worse than replacement level. 

On a similar but separate note, running Tillman out there every 5 days while the Orioles were trying to chase a wildcard spot is Buck’s worst mistake (surpassing even not putting Britton in that Wildcard game) IMO.