Cashner signing

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

6.00 is very negative, maybe hyperbolically.  But 5.00 is not unreasonable.  102 ERA+ for his career, and last year the Orioles and their opponents averaged 4.88 runs/team/game.

1.20 delta between FIP and ERA means something like a 80-90% chance of significant regression.

Oh, I agree with you there.   My own two standard deviations projection would be 4.75 plus or minus .75.     

[backwardsk]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Oh, I agree with you there.   My own two standard deviations projection would be 4.75 plus or minus .75.     

Wait, does that mean you are only giving him a 5% chance of being, at best, slightly worse than his career numbers?

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Wait, does that mean you are only giving him a 5% chance of being, at best, slightly worse than his career numbers?

Depends what career numbers you’re looking at.    OPACY and the AL East ain’t PETCO and the NL West.    And I believe his FIP from 2017 more than his ERA.   

[Tx Oriole]

15 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

As I heard one sabermetrics savant put it, Cashner has to manage contact better than any other pitcher in MLB in order to be an average major league pitcher. That sounds like something that probably doesn't happen two years in a row. 

I am sorry but that seems quite a stretch. Better than any pitcher in MLB? I like the Cashner signing. Yes there are other pitchers better but DD can't sign those because of Angelos and the cost and years the pitchers wanted. Darvish is a better pitcher but there was no way he would have signed with the O's. Cobb and Lynn are better. And I hope DD can sign one of them. But if they want a four year deal then I don't believe Angelos would allow DD to sign one of them. So Cashner is an Oriole. He's not the best but then he isn't mincemeat either. 

 

[mdbdotcom]

8 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I am sorry but that seems quite a stretch. Better than any pitcher in MLB? I like the Cashner signing. Yes there are other pitchers better but DD can't sign those because of Angelos and the cost and years the pitchers wanted. Darvish is a better pitcher but there was no way he would have signed with the O's. Cobb and Lynn are better. And I hope DD can sign one of them. But if they want a four year deal then I don't believe Angelos would allow DD to sign one of them. So Cashner is an Oriole. He's not the best but then he isn't mincemeat either. 

 

Better than any pitcher in MLB at managing contact. That is exactly what Cashner did last year, and why he succeeded despite his low strikeout rate. 

I did not say or imply that he needed to be better than any pitcher in MLB overall, just the one area where he succeeded.

[foxfield]

13 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I am sorry but that seems quite a stretch. Better than any pitcher in MLB? I like the Cashner signing. Yes there are other pitchers better but DD can't sign those because of Angelos and the cost and years the pitchers wanted. Darvish is a better pitcher but there was no way he would have signed with the O's. Cobb and Lynn are better. And I hope DD can sign one of them. But if they want a four year deal then I don't believe Angelos would allow DD to sign one of them. So Cashner is an Oriole. He's not the best but then he isn't mincemeat either. 

 

I must admit.  I do enjoy watching some of us turn positive for almost no reason at all...well you know...other than it's spring.

 

And yes, I am painfully aware of the irony of the above being considered positive.  I'm killing myself....lol.  

[Il BuonO]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends what career numbers you’re looking at.    OPACY and the AL East ain’t PETCO and the NL West.    And I believe his FIP from 2017 more than his ERA.   

I thought you weren’t a FIP guy.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

Better than any pitcher in MLB at managing contact. That is exactly what Cashner did last year, and why he succeeded despite his low strikeout rate. 

I did not say or imply that he needed to be better than any pitcher in MLB overall, just the one area where he succeeded.

But he also wasn’t “an average major league pitcher” last year.  He was 15th in MLB among qualified starters in ERA.    Much better than average.    Hence, he could slip a bit in managing contact and still be average.     Obviously, he can’t slip to average in managing contact if his K rate lurks below 5.    

[mdbdotcom]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But he also wasn’t “an average major league pitcher” last year.  He was 15th in MLB among qualified starters in ERA.    Much better than average.    Hence, he could slip a bit in managing contact and still be average.     Obviously, he can’t slip to average in managing contact if his K rate lurks below 5.    

I was quoting a source on the radio whose name I"ve forgotten. He didn't specify average in ERA, so maybe he was looking at other stats as well. No matter where Cashner's ERA ranked, the point was that you can't expect him to perform like he did last season and get the same results. Of course, no one thought there could be a pitcher like Zach Britton until Zach came along. So, maybe Cashner has figured out a way to succeed that hasn't occurred to or worked for other pitchers.

But I think the question should be asked, was he really trying to hit all those bats?

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I was quoting a source on the radio whose name I"ve forgotten. He didn't specify average in ERA, so maybe he was looking at other stats as well. No matter where Cashner's ERA ranked, the point was that you can't expect him to perform like he did last season and get the same results. Of course, no one thought there could be a pitcher like Zach Britton until Zach came along. So, maybe Cashner has figured out a way to succeed that hasn't occurred to or worked for other pitchers.

But I think the question should be asked, was he really trying to hit all those bats?

Britton is the exceptionally rare case of ultra-extreme GB pitcher who also strikes out a batter an inning.  Cashner is Britton with a higher FB% and a strikeout rate cut in half.  In other words, the new Brad Bergesen.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

I thought you weren’t a FIP guy.

I'm not. So there is that. Nor a defensive metric dude either. I like Strikeouts and homers. I also think a single is superior to a walk. 

[Aristotelian]

I think he'll be better without the beard.

[Il BuonO]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I think he'll be better without the beard.

Less drag coefficient, better aerodynamics.

[atomic]

On 2/17/2018 at 1:15 PM, weams said:

I'm not. So there is that. Nor a defensive metric dude either. I like Strikeouts and homers. I also think a single is superior to a walk. 

Well in FIP singles don't even count.  You could give 19 straight singles and doubles and then strike out the 20th guy and you would be perfect.   

[weams]