TT: Predicting the Opening Day Roster

[Rene88]

8 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

As a starter, Cortes and Wright > Castro IMO.

I don’t think Wright is a starter. I wish they would move on:)

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Rene88 said:

I don’t think Wright is a starter. I wish they would move on:)

Agreed, but I think he has more weapons to defend himself as a starter than Castro. I don't think either should start.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Opening Day Roster, my take.

SP Kevin Gausman

SP Dylan Bundy

SP Andrew Cashner

SP Chris Tillman

SP Nestor Cortes

RP Richard Bleier

RP Joely Rodriguez *

RP Darren O'Day

RP Mychal Givens

RP Brad Brach

RP Jose Mesa Jr

RP Mike Wright 

RP Pedro Araujo

C Chance Sisco

C Caleb Joseph

1B Chris Davis

2B Jonathan Schoop

SS Manny Machado

3B TIm Beckham

LF Anthony Santander

CF Adam Jones

RF Colby Rasmus *

OF Craig Gentry (not a fan of this but I think it's likely) *

DH Trey Mancini

Utility Danny Valencia *

 

15 Day DL: Gabriel Ynoa, Mark Trumbo

60 Day DL: Zach Britton

* denotes not on the 40 man roster

 

So with that 25 man, 4 spots need to be cleared on the 40 man.

So Michael Kelly, Stefan Crichton, Engelb Vielma, and Joey Rickard are DFA.

 

Analysis: Basically this is a way to keep all of the Rule 5 guys and Mike Wright. It'll allow the Orioles to continue to evaluate all of them (including Wright) by going with a short bench until Trumbo returns. Then they can make the decision to return someone or DFA Wright.

 

 

I like this. Only difference is I see Buck sticking with Mancini in LF rather than disrupting his progress defensively. Trumbo on 60 day would allow us to avoid one of the DFAs.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I like this. Only difference is I see Buck sticking with Mancini in LF rather than disrupting his progress defensively. Trumbo on 60 day would allow us to avoid one of the DFAs.

Yeah, you are probably right. I think Santander is better than Mancini defensively (not by a big margin) so I put it that way.

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, Rene88 said:

Does Rodriguez have options? He has looked good.

Mesa has the most upside but hasn’t been very good in ST. Small sample size or more?

Where does Cobb fit? I kid...

Rodriguez is not on the 40-man roster so he doesn't need an option to be sent to the minors. If he makes the team and is added to the 40-man then he would have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors again.

[bobmc]

4 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

If they bring back Flaherty they don't need Gentry. Santander would platoon with Rasmus in RF and Flash would be the 5th outfielder as well as UIF at 1B, 2B and 3B (his arm isn't good enough for him to play SS anymore). If Flaherty doesn't return, Gentry makes the team.

Sisco could share the DH job with Valencia and Susac would be the backup catcher in April, when the first two day games after night games will be against the Astros and Yankees (and Buck will want an experienced catcher). So, the 13 position players would look like this on opening day:

Vs. RHP

• Joseph - C
• Davis - 1B
• Schoop - 2B
• Beckham - 3B
• Manny - SS
• Mancini - LF
• Jones - CF
• Rasmus - RF
• Sisco - DH

Bench/Vs. LHP

• Susac
• Flaherty
• /Santander - RF
• /Valencia - DH

When Trumbo returns in mid-late April he would replace Susac, who would be DFA. 

Sisco, Susac and Wynns are all on the 40-man roster and can be freely optioned between the Orioles and the minor leagues.

http://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2018/03/19/spring-training-primer-davis-returns-roster-getting-little-clearer-tillman-starts-today/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Opening Day Roster, my take.

SP Kevin Gausman

SP Dylan Bundy

SP Andrew Cashner

SP Chris Tillman

SP Nestor Cortes

RP Richard Bleier

RP Joely Rodriguez *

RP Darren O'Day

RP Mychal Givens

RP Brad Brach

RP Jose Mesa Jr

RP Mike Wright 

RP Pedro Araujo

C Chance Sisco

C Caleb Joseph

1B Chris Davis

2B Jonathan Schoop

SS Manny Machado

3B TIm Beckham

LF Anthony Santander

CF Adam Jones

RF Colby Rasmus *

OF Craig Gentry (not a fan of this but I think it's likely) *

DH Trey Mancini

Utility Danny Valencia *

 

15 Day DL: Gabriel Ynoa, Mark Trumbo

60 Day DL: Zach Britton

* denotes not on the 40 man roster

 

So with that 25 man, 4 spots need to be cleared on the 40 man.

So Michael Kelly, Stefan Crichton, Engelb Vielma, and Joey Rickard are DFA.

 

Analysis: Basically this is a way to keep all of the Rule 5 guys and Mike Wright. It'll allow the Orioles to continue to evaluate all of them (including Wright) by going with a short bench until Trumbo returns. Then they can make the decision to return someone or DFA Wright.

 

 

I could see the Orioles going with 13 pitchers instead of 12 considering their 4th and 5th starter options, but i just don't see Mesa staying over Castro. Although I agree with you that Castro is not a starter, they could decide to send him to Norfolk to start considering their current options. If that does happen, I think the orioles will keep Edgin over Mesa. I agree with you the Rodriguez has a great chance to stick in several scenarios. 

If the Orioles start the year with Tillman and Wright in the rotation and three Rule 5 picks in the bullpen, Orioles fans may have pitchforks waiting for them upon their return from Florida.

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I could see the Orioles going with 13 pitchers instead of 12 considering their 4th and 5th starter options, but i just don't see Mesa staying over Castro. Although I agree with you that Castro is not a starter, they could decide to send him to Norfolk to start considering their current options. If that does happen, I think the orioles will keep Edgin over Mesa. I agree with you the Rodriguez has a great chance to stick in several scenarios. 

If the Orioles start the year with Tillman and Wright in the rotation and three Rule 5 picks in the bullpen, Orioles fans may have pitchforks waiting for them upon their return from Florida.

NRIs making the team should be equally upsetting to fans, if not more upsetting. There admittedly is a stigma to the Rule 5 moniker though, for better or for worse.

Do you have any insight on the process behind the Jason Garcia selection? The Rickard selection seemed to be purely data driven, with no scouting involved, while Garcia seems to have been the complete opposite. A guy who someone saw hit 100 in instructs, but was just an ok pitcher in Low A.

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I could see the Orioles going with 13 pitchers instead of 12 considering their 4th and 5th starter options, but i just don't see Mesa staying over Castro. Although I agree with you that Castro is not a starter, they could decide to send him to Norfolk to start considering their current options. If that does happen, I think the orioles will keep Edgin over Mesa. I agree with you the Rodriguez has a great chance to stick in several scenarios. 

If the Orioles start the year with Tillman and Wright in the rotation and three Rule 5 picks in the bullpen, Orioles fans may have pitchforks waiting for them upon their return from Florida.

Yeah, for some reason people have been forgetting about Castro as a mainstay of the bullpen all offseason. And that's fine, I get that he's young and optionable and the jury is still out on whether or not he's for real, but like you said, I can't see a scenario in which Mesa makes it over Castro. Not with the schedule like it is in the first month of the season. 

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

NRIs making the team should be equally upsetting to fans, if not more upsetting. There admittedly is a stigma to the Rule 5 moniker though, for better or for worse.

Do you have any insight on the process behind the Jason Garcia selection? The Rickard selection seemed to be purely data driven, with no scouting involved, while Garcia seems to have been the complete opposite. A guy who someone saw hit 100 in instructs, but was just an ok pitcher in Low A.

I don't know who exactly was behind his selection, but I know all the talk was about him being a guy who hit 98 MPH. He was never that guy at any point with the Orioles, and the decision to keep him all season ended up being mind boggling because I never once saw a guy who showed high end talent. In the minors, I NP'd him every year. He doesn't have the stuff or command to be a big league pitcher.

The Rickard selection made some sense and they got some value out of him. They just have better options now, and once teams realized he couldn't hit anything offspeed, he became a zero with the bat.

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

NRIs making the team should be equally upsetting to fans, if not more upsetting. There admittedly is a stigma to the Rule 5 moniker though, for better or for worse.

Do you have any insight on the process behind the Jason Garcia selection? The Rickard selection seemed to be purely data driven, with no scouting involved, while Garcia seems to have been the complete opposite. A guy who someone saw hit 100 in instructs, but was just an ok pitcher in Low A.

Not sure I understand why people should be upset with NRIs making the team. Maybe historically, but with the way the market has gone this year, players like Valencia, Rasmus and even Rodriguez and Edgin were available on minor league contracts when normally they would be on major league deals. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I don't know who exactly was behind his selection, but I know all the talk was about him being a guy who hit 98 MPH. He was never that guy at any point with the Orioles, and the decision to keep him all season ended up being mind boggling because I never once saw a guy who showed high end talent. In the minors, I NP'd him every year. He doesn't have the stuff or command to be a big league pitcher.

The Rickard selection made some sense and they got some value out of him. They just have better options now, and once teams realized he couldn't hit anything offspeed, he became a zero with the bat.

Yeah, I think the decision to drag Jason Garcia through a whole season is part of the reason O's fans have such a negative connotation with Rule 5 picks. 

Rickard, I liked his stats, but as soon as I saw his swing, it was apparent why he wasn't protected. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, I think the decision to drag Jason Garcia through a whole season is part of the reason O's fans have such a negative connotation with Rule 5 picks. 

Rickard, I liked his stats, but as soon as I saw his swing, it was apparent why he wasn't protected. 

It's really bad man. What I don't get is why we invested in the kid but aren't trying to overhaul his swing. 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Not sure I understand why people should be upset with NRIs making the team. Maybe historically, but with the way the market has gone this year, players like Valencia, Rasmus and even Rodriguez and Edgin were available on minor league contracts when normally they would be on major league deals. 

Just because they are players who any team could have acquired for very little cost. Generally not the types of players that start on a winning team.

Not hating on those guys personally, I like those types of low-risk signings.

I'm just saying for fans that are mad that a Rule 5 player is on the team, I'm surprised they aren't mad about other cheap solutions making the team rather than coveted free agents.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

I think Santander, Cortes and Arujuo will be good picks. Yes, I agree that the rule five draft has been a crap shoot. I wonder if the Orioles will stop participating in the rule five once Dan leaves.