Why do I feel crazy for actually believing the O's can win the East?

[99ct]

37 minutes ago, Aglets said:

We played 50 games last year where we allowed 7 or more runs.  I'm using this as a pseudo-proxy for a DS.  Yea it's not perfect.    Out of those 50, we won 7......or a paltry 14%.

So that means in all the other games, we had a 61% chance of winning.    (that would be a 98 win pace if you could maintain it for a full season)

So let's say that these two dudes give us something like 10 total fewer Disaster Starts than Miley / Ubaldo.  I feel this is a fairly conservative median projection...it could be more or less.   That's 5 extra wins easy.   Add that to a 75 win team, and it's pretty easy to see that with just a few more things breaking our way......we get into WC territory (last year the Twins won a WC spot with 85 wins).  Tillman surely will have a shorter leash, etc.

Because I love numbers and modeling systems, I have to jump in here With the Yanks and BoSox both improving, do you think that our 61% chance of winning the non-DS games will decrease? 

[survivedc]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I used to track the 7+ run games on here, back in the Dark Years.    I agree it’s not a bad proxy.   

The big thing that sort of goes without saying is that the bullpen pitched about 100 more innings last year than they did in 2014. The big thing the new pitchers can do is help preserve the bullpen. 

[survivedc]

4 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Of course he can’t.   That’s absurd. 

Not saying he will, but I count 10 games last year that Ubaldo failed to complete the 5th inning and only twice for Cobb and one of those he was pulled after 4 and giving up 0 runs. 

[Aglets]

5 minutes ago, 99ct said:

Because I love numbers and modeling systems, I have to jump in here With the Yanks and BoSox both improving, do you think that our 61% chance of winning the non-DS games will decrease? 

I'm not sure, I kinda doubt it?   I think it may mean that it's more likely that we give up more DS to those teams, for example.  The Yankees beat us a lot last year,  and had 12 total games where they scored 7+ against us.  I'd like to think that number won't get worse.  The numbers are actually pretty remarkable when you break it out:

We went 0-12 against them when they scored 7 or more.

We went 7-0 in all other games against them.   it's certainly possible that we could lose a few of those non-DS games against NY this year which would technically lower that percentage, but there's so many games against other opponents that I think it will all come out in the noise.

We actually had a winning record against Boston last year, so it will be interesting to see what changes this time around........

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Of course he can’t.   That’s absurd. 

Some folks credit Bud Norris for the O's winning the east in 2014 when they won by 12 games.

[weams]

2 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

 I don't see them winning the AL East. 

Did you see the Orioles winning the AL East after the failure of 2013? And that poor off-season?

[Cavspider]

The ripple effect of better starting pitching also resonates with the use of the pen.  So many starts by Ubaldo and Miley were short and severely stressed the pen.  Over the season this should be lessened considerably with our new better starters.  Hopefully this will translate into wins not directly associated with Cobb and Cashner as well.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Cavspider said:

The ripple effect of better starting pitching also resonates with the use of the pen.  So many starts by Ubaldo and Miley were short and severely stressed the pen.  Over the season this should be lessened considerably with our new better starters.  Hopefully this will translate into wins not directly associated with Cobb and Cashner as well.

Cobb and Cashner aren't workhorse types, they are more 165 IP guys.

Miley and Ubaldo pitched 300 innings last year.

So yea, it should lead to a lighter workload but not by a huge amount.

[Aglets]

Just now, Cavspider said:

The ripple effect of better starting pitching also resonates with the use of the pen.  So many starts by Ubaldo and Miley were short and severely stressed the pen.  Over the season this should be lessened considerably with our new better starters.  Hopefully this will translate into wins not directly associated with Cobb and Cashner as well.

Sure.

Our bullpen ERA by year:

2012 - 3.00 (3rd in AL)

2013 - 3.52 (6th)

2014 - 3.10 (3rd)

2015 - 3.21 (3rd)

2016 - 3.40 (1st!)

2017 - 3.93 (6th)

Note that the AL average went up by about 0.30 from '16 to '17, but still I don't think anyone would say it is a coincidence that we had our worst bullpen ERA since 2012 last year, and we were also near the top (2nd) in IP by bullpen.   I'll let other wizards project how many extra wins that would be over the course of a season if our bullpen ERA improves by say half a run.

[25 Nuggets]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not so much wired that way.

I can generally get away with being brutally honest with folks so I am.

I for one appreciate your honest opinions even if they frustrate me sometimes.

Personally, I do see a 10-game improvement out of the rotation because it was that bad last season.  The positional talent looks about the same and so does the bullpen - which is not as good as it used to be and that showed last season.  So yeah, 85-ish wins, 3rd place in the division (or even 4th as tough as the AL East is) and in the running for the 2nd Wild Card with no guarantee at all.  We will be in the same position come trade deadline as years past.  "Do we buy or sell?"  The Orioles will likely buy again as they have done before.  But they'll need to not tank September.

I too will be pleasantly surprised with a Division win.

[MDtransplant757]

I believe we can win the division around this time of year. It's boring/lame to think we can't. 

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Sure.

Our bullpen ERA by year:

2012 - 3.00 (3rd in AL)

2013 - 3.52 (6th)

2014 - 3.10 (3rd)

2015 - 3.21 (3rd)

2016 - 3.40 (1st!)

2017 - 3.93 (6th)

Note that the AL average went up by about 0.30 from '16 to '17, but still I don't think anyone would say it is a coincidence that we had our worst bullpen ERA since 2012 last year, and we were also near the top (2nd) in IP by bullpen.   I'll let other wizards project how many extra wins that would be over the course of a season if our bullpen ERA improves by say half a run.

Britton by himself probably accounts for most of the difference in our bullpen ERA from 2016 to 2017.    Much higher ERA plus far fewer innings, which then had to be picked up by other relievers who aren’t as good.    

[Satyr3206]

87 wins, write it down. W/C.

[oriole]

4 hours ago, clapdiddy said:

The lack of starting pitching depth at the higher levels of the minors is this team's biggest weakness.   

I definitely think we can compete in the AL East if the top 4 pitchers make most of their starts.  

If this team stays healthy, I think a WC is within reach. The depth at almost every possible position except maybe OF and C is severely lacking...let's add 1B too considering we've already got four of them on the 25-man roster.

 

[weams]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Some folks credit Bud Norris for the O's winning the east in 2014 when they won by 12 games.

Bud beat Detroit in Detroit. Heck of a game.