A Tale of Two Chrises: What Specifically is Wrong?

[larrytt]

Neither Chris Davis nor Chris Tillman are old enough to blame their conversion from stars to scars on the Orioles underbelly that you want hit with a crowbar. So my question is simple: What ***specifically*** has caused their demise and keeps them from recovering their former glory? 

[amdcpus]

Davis I think a large part definitely is his aging. Tillman, on the other hand is 29, about to turn 30, which normally isn't the age a good pitcher completely falls apart. Only think I can think of is a shoulder injury/mental issues.

[Slappy]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Tillman seems pretty obvious. Bursitis (for lack of a real diagnosis) in September of 2016.   He never was right again.     There is something wrong in his shoulder and no one wants to say it.

Davis, you really have to think about the steroids angle with Davis.    Gets married and has a kid, and a big contract, and then decides to go clean.   It's a possible theory!

I think there are two things hurting Davis.

One are the pronounced shifts. His "hard hit %" really hasn't changed all that much since his big 2013 (41.5% last year vs. 41.3% in 2013 ), neither has his hit distribution, his fly ball rate, or even his HR/FB rate. However, his BABIP has dropped from .335 in 2012 and 2013 to .300 last year.  So more of his in-play hits are being turned into outs.

Second is his inability to make contact. His K rate has climbed from about 30% his first few years with the O's to over 37% last year. I'm not sure what's behind this, whether it is mental, or his bat has slowed down some, or he's thinking too much up there, or whatever, but putting the ball in play more should help him.

Up until tonight he had been doing a better job of that so far this year, with a K rate at 23%. His BABIP is a horribly unlucky .138, and his hard hit rate was down to 27%, from over 40% in most of his career.  I think his approach has been ok so far, hopefully he sticks with it and starts seeing some better results.  

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Slappy said:

I think there are two things hurting Davis.

One are the pronounced shifts. His "hard hit %" really hasn't changed all that much since his big 2013 (41.5% last year vs. 41.3% in 2013 ), neither has his hit distribution, his fly ball rate, or even his HR/FB rate. However, his BABIP has dropped from .335 in 2012 and 2013 to .300 last year.  So more of his in-play hits are being turned into outs.

Second is his inability to make contact. His K rate has climbed from about 30% his first few years with the O's to over 37% last year. I'm not sure what's behind this, whether it is mental, or his bat has slowed down some, or he's thinking too much up there, or whatever, but putting the ball in play more should help him.

Up until tonight he had been doing a better job of that so far this year, with a K rate at 23%. His BABIP is a horribly unlucky .138, and his hard hit rate was down to 27%, from over 40% in most of his career.  I think his approach has been ok so far, hopefully he sticks with it and starts seeing some better results.  

You really think his .138 BABIP is “unlucky” when you followed that up with his hard hit rate down from 40% to 27%?

[Slappy]

5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

You really think his .138 BABIP is “unlucky” when you followed that up with his hard hit rate down from 40% to 27%?

Sure.  For example, Caleb Joseph's hard hit rate in 2017 was about 28%, with a similar placement distribution, and his BABIP was .328. 

What I did miss saying was I think his hard hit rate should improve from these first few weeks as well, given his history.

[24fps]

I firmly believe that CD no longer reliably sees the ball when he's at bat.  Perhaps it's psychological because he seems to play the field just fine, but when he's at bat, he may as well be somewhere else very far away.  Mars?  Jupiter?  You get the picture.

Tillman's problem seems to be much more straitforward.  Physical injury that's increasingly looking like it's career ending.

[ChuckS]

Big sluggers with loopy upper cut swings who strike out a bunch, don't age well.  

Richie Sexson, Adam Dunn Ryan Howard, Chris Davis....the list goes on. The slightest loss in bat speed and they are finished.  And Chris Davis was never as good as those players mentioned to begin with.  

[baltfan]

Davis overswings.  When he was at his best it almost looked as if he was lifting the ball over the fence.  Nice, easy swing reminiscent of Palmiero though not as pretty.  Now, except for the last Toronto game, he seems to be swinging as hard as he can.  He is plenty strong, just take a nice easy swing. 

[VaBird1]

There are two quantifiable things for the Chrises.  Davis went from a fairly average runner to Matt Weiters slow from 2016 to 2017.  There appears to be a direct correlation to the rest of his athletic ability as well.  For Tillman we have seen the chart showing that when he was good he had a different release point.  My guess is both ships have sailed.

It is painful since they were both so enjoyable to watch for about five years.

[Aristotelian]

Anyone know if Davis has a med exemption this year?

[weams]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Tillman seems pretty obvious. Bursitis (for lack of a real diagnosis) in September of 2016.   He never was right again.     There is something wrong in his shoulder and no one wants to say it.

Davis, you really have to think about the steroids angle with Davis.    Gets married and has a kid, and a big contract, and then decides to go clean.   It's a possible theory!

I think it is probable. He is smaller too. 

[sevastras]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Anyone know if Davis has a med exemption this year?

My exact thoughts on Chris Davis is he doesn’t have a half a can of tobacco and quit using adderall and is using  Vyvanse and he hasn’t been the same since. 

[TheOtherRipken]

From the games I’ve watched, Davis has either struck out badly or made good contact. I think its safe to say Davis is more than ever a one dimensional player now, but I struggle to say he’s done. He won’t justify his contract but at least this year I think he has a few hot streaks.

Tillman on the other hand, oh boy...its  shame he’s a nice guy and has been a great player for us. He is done though, 100%.