TT: Orioles Games of Thrones and the Way Forward

[Ballmer Bruce]

Think in relative terms.  You have a better chance to compete in the scouting system than in the free agent market. 

[now]

1 hour ago, Ballmer Bruce said:

Think in relative terms.  You have a better chance to compete in the scouting system than in the free agent market. 

Exactly. I realized this playing baseball sims (OOTP), that you can get a lot more bang for your buck (no pun!) by investing in quality scouting and development staff, since the salaries are orders of magnitude less than for star players. And an advantage there provides leverage for better decisions at every step. 

[now]

15 hours ago, weams said:

Jon Shepherd also did a piece. 

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/05/welcome-to-abyss.html?m=1

Jon's article adds important information to the whole picture. Namely, that the dysfunction runs deep throughout the whole developmental system. So, while it's easy to simply blame Angelos & Sons, the "rotten wood" is really pervasive throughout. The picture emerges of playing politics, old-boys inertia, favoritism and cronyism, that I had thought was overhauled since the Thrift era. Not so, apparently.

So maybe it does still start from the top. But the enormity of change needed goes beyond changing a coach here, a GM there, even a shift in ownership. There's all this staff and people in positions of influence all the way down the ladder, in the bushes and weeds, gatekeepers of this bad Oriole way, rather than the good Oriole way or a new-wave MLB way based on analytics and accountability.

So we are left with the conclusion that a complete overhaul is needed, not just at the top, but throughout the organization.

[weams]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I agree with you.

But that was before free agency.

Buy the algorithm now. Scouts are out.

[weams]

7 minutes ago, now said:

The picture emerges of playing politics, old-boys inertia, favoritism and cronyism, that I had thought was overhauled.

 

1

I've never seen an organization,  business, group, alliance, or nation act properly on these issues. I suspect Orioles are not alone in the MLB. You just don't know about things anywhere until something goes bad. 

[Flacco Machado]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The only thing I heard about Rajisch is he stays out of the warehouse as much as possible and stays focused on his job and out of the "politics". It's probably why he's been pretty successful overall.

Ok, that's really good to hear. I hope he stays. He's done a much better job than Joe Jordan, imo.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, weams said:

Buy the algorithm now. Scouts are out.

That doesn’t seem to be the case. Teams are trying to figure out how to properly assess a scout’s performance. There are amazing scouts and scouts who are absolute garbage, just like most jobs. It’s tough to rate them though because of the many years between the scout’s reports and the veracity of those reports becoming known. Plus the influences of developmental programs and other confusing variables. 

The more prevalent use of data has a lot to do with the unknown of scouting report quality along with the larger data pool (trackman, Statcast, etc).

Once teams figure out how to leverage scouts by grading them out, I think you’ll see a resurgence as all teams have equivalent data science teams and scouts once again become the difference makers.

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That doesn’t seem to be the case. Teams are trying to figure out how to properly assess a scout’s performance. There are amazing scouts and scouts who are absolute garbage, just like most jobs. It’s tough to rate them though because of the many years between the scout’s reports and the veracity of those reports becoming known. Plus the influences of developmental programs and other confusing variables. 

The more prevalent use of data has a lot to do with the unknown of scouting report quality along with the larger data pool (trackman, Statcast, etc).

Once teams figure out how to leverage scouts by grading them out, I think you’ll see a resurgence as all teams have equivalent data science teams and scouts once again become the difference makers.

I'm a scouting guy. The industry appears to be a math buyer. I watch what the scouts are reacting to at minor league games. MLB front offices appear to be buying Cisco. Not Sisco. 

[weams]

6 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That doesn’t seem to be the case. Teams are trying to figure out how to properly assess a scout’s performance. There are amazing scouts and scouts who are absolute garbage, just like most jobs. It’s tough to rate them though because of the many years between the scout’s reports and the veracity of those reports becoming known. Plus the influences of developmental programs and other confusing variables. 

The more prevalent use of data has a lot to do with the unknown of scouting report quality along with the larger data pool (trackman, Statcast, etc).

Once teams figure out how to leverage scouts by grading them out, I think you’ll see a resurgence as all teams have equivalent data science teams and scouts once again become the difference makers.

If they can grade and quantify it to put in a machine, I agree. 

[jsbearr]

On 5/11/2018 at 10:47 PM, wildcard said:

Sometimes when an author tries to paint a bad picture they goes too far.   The pitchers in the low minor will only help the pen?  No mention or Harvey or Akin.   The O's have Santander who will soon be in the high minors developing, Mullins, Hays, Stewart.   The catching in the system is 5 deep.  

Yes the O's have a lot of key players that are FAs.   Manny is unsignable for the O's at this point.    But not every one will leave.   The O's have 60m coming of the books that can be used to replenish the team.  They actually signed major league starters this year in Cobb and  Cashner.  A very hard thing to do with Camden Yards as a home park.  FA hitters are an easier sell.

So what I wrote was a 30,000 ft view. When you are looking at that level, yeah, the system is primed for relief pitching not starting. It is hard to find a club that does not have a guy like Akin. Usually, you have a couple. Harvey is certainly intriguing, but he has some development to do and an injury history on his back. Harvey effectively is Yacabonis with a lot more ceiling, but there is nothing set in stone he reaches that. Again, many organizations have promising pitching prospects who have a terrible track record.

The rest...it is a poor system. Clapping won't bring it back to life. Look around at other organizations. You see stronger systems with better prospects and more redundancies. The Orioles system is largely a bunch of guys who have to make it.

 

Catching is five deep? I am unsure what that means. The club is not very strong there. Sisco still looks shaky behind the plate and when runners are on they try to funnel pitches that help him on the throws. They do not really do that for Joseph.

FA pitchers? They are not really a hard sell. Pitchers go to home run havens for the money. Top four HR parks are the Phillies, Yanks, Orioles, and Dbacks. When it comes to SP free agents...one is not like the other three.

Again though, this was a 30,000 ft piece. I had no intent to turn over stones. It was about the big picture.

 

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, jsbearr said:

So what I wrote was a 30,000 ft view. When you are looking at that level, yeah, the system is primed for relief pitching not starting. It is hard to find a club that does not have a guy like Akin. Usually, you have a couple. Harvey is certainly intriguing, but he has some development to do and an injury history on his back. Harvey effectively is Yacabonis with a lot more ceiling, but there is nothing set in stone he reaches that. Again, many organizations have promising pitching prospects who have a terrible track record.

The rest...it is a poor system. Clapping won't bring it back to life. Look around at other organizations. You see stronger systems with better prospects and more redundancies. The Orioles system is largely a bunch of guys who have to make it.

 

Catching is five deep? I am unsure what that means. The club is not very strong there. Sisco still looks shaky behind the plate and when runners are on they try to funnel pitches that help him on the throws. They do not really do that for Joseph.

FA pitchers? They are not really a hard sell. Pitchers go to home run havens for the money. Top four HR parks are the Phillies, Yanks, Orioles, and Dbacks. When it comes to SP free agents...one is not like the other three.

Again though, this was a 30,000 ft piece. I had no intent to turn over stones. It was about the big picture.

 

I really negative perspective on your part.   

Harvey in a first rounder who is now healthy and doing well at AAA.  He has the pitches to be a top of the rotation starter.  He could be in the majors later this year.  Akin is a 2nd rounder who is doing well.  He is projected as a back of the rotation lefty.   The O's can use that. Hess  may be a starter or reliever but he has take a step toward being a major leaguer this year.

The five starters at Delmarva all project as starter until they are not.  They have had a really good  start of the season.

Tanner Scott as the stuff and poise to be a good late inning lefty reliever.  Fastball at 98 with a good slider.  He and Givens will be main stays for next year's team and beyond.     Castro in 23.  Not a minor league any more but he does have options.  

Mullins is probably a better centerfielder defensively than Jones right now.  He still needs some time to refine his hitting but he has shown promise in that area. Santander just needs some time to develop in the minors.   I was impress with this defense.  He looks like he will hit.    Hays has taken a step backward so far this year.  Reports are that he changed in swing over the winter.  He needs to get back to where he was.   Mobile outfielder with a strong arm.  Probably the O's future right fielder and he has been recognized by the main steam media. Stewart is a good all round player.  Some power, surprising speed for a guy his size.   Look like he will be a major leaguer.   Mountcastle  is a hitter for power and average.   Could be the O's impact DH after Trumbo is gone.  I don't know if he as the arm to stay at 3B.

There is a lot there that you are giving the O's not credit for no matter what altitude  you are work at.

 

 

[jsbearr]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I really negative perspective on your part.   

Harvey in a first rounder who is now healthy and doing well at AAA.  He has the pitches to be a top of the rotation starter.  He could be in the majors later this year.  Akin is a 2nd rounder who is doing well.  He is projected as a back of the rotation lefty.   The O's can use that.

The five starters at Delmarva all project as starter until they are not.  They have had a really good  start of the season.

Tanner Scott as the stuff and poise to be a good late inning lefty reliever.  Fastball at 98 with a good slider.  He and Givens will be main stays for next year's team and beyond.     Castro in 23.  Not a minor league any more but he does have options.  

Mullins is probably a better centerfielder defensively than Jones right now.  He still needs some time to refine his hitting but he has shown promise in that area. Santander just needs some time to develop in the minors.   I was impress with this defense.  He looks like he will hit.    Hays has taken a step backward so far this year.  Reports are that he changed in swing over the winter.  He needs to get back to where he was.   Mobile outfielder with a strong arm.  Probably the O's future right fielder and he has been recognized by the main steam media. Stewart is a good all round player.  Some power, surprising speed for a guy his size.   Look like he will be a major leaguer.   Mountcastle  is a hitter for power and average.   Could be the O's impact DH after Trumbo is gone.  I don't know if he as the arm to stay at 3B.

There is a lot there that you are giving the O's not credit for no matter what altitude  you are work at.

 

 

We can talk about contributions from the baseline or we can talk about comparable contributions. 

[weams]

26 minutes ago, jsbearr said:

So what I wrote was a 30,000 ft view. When you are looking at that level, yeah, the system is primed for relief pitching not starting. It is hard to find a club that does not have a guy like Akin. Usually, you have a couple. Harvey is certainly intriguing, but he has some development to do and an injury history on his back. Harvey effectively is Yacabonis with a lot more ceiling, but there is nothing set in stone he reaches that. Again, many organizations have promising pitching prospects who have a terrible track record.

The rest...it is a poor system. Clapping won't bring it back to life. Look around at other organizations. You see stronger systems with better prospects and more redundancies. The Orioles system is largely a bunch of guys who have to make it.

 

Catching is five deep? I am unsure what that means. The club is not very strong there. Sisco still looks shaky behind the plate and when runners are on they try to funnel pitches that help him on the throws. They do not really do that for Joseph.

FA pitchers? They are not really a hard sell. Pitchers go to home run havens for the money. Top four HR parks are the Phillies, Yanks, Orioles, and Dbacks. When it comes to SP free agents...one is not like the other three.

Again though, this was a 30,000 ft piece. I had no intent to turn over stones. It was about the big picture.

 

Glad for your post and for your weighing in. Thanks. 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, jsbearr said:

We can talk about contributions from the baseline or we can talk about comparable contributions. 

By who.   The expects that rank minor leaguers completely missed on Mancini.   And they admit it now.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, jsbearr said:

We can talk about contributions from the baseline or we can talk about comparable contributions. 

Catching is not five deep. At all. Not three deep.