2017 vs. 2018: Historically Bad Starting Pitching vs. a Historically Bad Offense

[OFFNY]

o

 

In 2017, the Orioles had historically bad starting pitching.

In 2018, the Orioles have a historically bad offense (plus a very bad defense.)

 

In 50 losses so far this season the Orioles have scored 124 runs, for an average of 2.48 runs per games.

Before today's 10-4 win over the Marlins, they ranked last in the Major Leagues in runs scored overall ........ after today's 10-run outburst, they passed the Marlins (248 runs in 70 games, for an average of 3.54 runs per game. The Marlins have scored 253 runs in 72 games, for an average of 3.52 runs per game.)

 

 

Although there is still more than half of the season left to be played, the Orioles have been historically bad in 2 major categories in back-to-back seasons. 

Last year, it resulted in a disappointing 75-87 season. An extremely overworked bullpen (along with a decent offense and decent defense) somehow managed to keep the team in contention more than 3/4 of the way into the season at 71-68 after 139 games before the roof finally caved in over the final 23 games.

This year, it (the historically bad offense combined with a very bad defense) has resulted in the Orioles rivaling some of the all-time worst records in modern MLB history almost halfway into the season (a 20-50 overall record, for a .286 winning percentage.)

 

The starting pitching overall has modestly improved, with Andrew Cashner and David Hess faring better than Chris Tillman, Wade Miley, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Jeremy Hellickson did last year. Alex Cobb (even if you disinclude his first 3 starts of the season because of his not having had any Spring Training to work with) has been very disappointing, although I suspect that he will improve in 2019 to get back to the neighborhood of his previous career numbers.

 

o

[Matt Bennett]

2018 starting pitching has basically been just as bad as 2017 starting pitching

[TonySoprano]

Starting pitching has improved but the gains are modest.  2018 starters' ERA is 5.32 (28th) vs 5.70 (30th) in 2017. 

I looked into the "Tillman factor" as he has hurt the team numbers both seasons and also to determine if some of the gain was by exiling him early this season (addition by subtraction).  Without Tillman, the rest of the staff ERA is 4.92 in 2018 and 5.44 in 2017.  In other words, dropping him early has made a small difference to the bottom line numbers.  What impact he made digging the team into a hole every start you can't quantify with numbers.

ERA + 2018/2017
Bundy 112/102
Gausman 92/93

Bundy is on pace for 206.1 IP,  almost 38 more innings than 2017 (22% increase).  I expect they'll spread his starts out more, especially in the second half, to reduce his workload to be more in line with 2017.
Gausman is on pace for 190.2, all of 4 more innings than last year.  His WHIP has dropped because he's cut the number of walks surrendered by a 1/3 while giving up about the same H9 as last year.  Overall, no big leap forward or backward for him.

Cashner + Cobb 135.1 IP, ERA 5.99
Miley+Jimenez 300 IP, ERA 6.18 

[OFFNY]

42 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

 

The 2018 starting pitching has basically been just as bad as 2017 starting pitching.

 

o

 

The Orioles are currently 7th (out of 30 teams) in the Major Leagues in Quality Starts.

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/team-stats?season=2018&category=PITCHING&sort=6&time=0

 

In 2017, the Orioles were tied for 27th (out of 30 teams) in Quality Starts.

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/team-stats?season=2017&category=PITCHING&sort=6&time=0

 

 

Granted that QS's is a statistic that (like many other raw statistics) can be somewhat belying in its representation of the effectiveness of a team's starting rotation, but I don't think that it is THAT belying. The Orioles' starting pitching at-large in 2018 has given the team a reasonable chance to win games at a considerably higher rate than did the 2017 starting rotation at-large.

 

o

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

The Orioles are currently 7th (out of 30 teams) in the Major Leagues in Quality Starts.

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/team-stats?season=2018&category=PITCHING&sort=6&time=0

 

In 2017, the Orioles were tied for 27th (out of 30 teams) in Quality Starts.

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/team-stats?season=2017&category=PITCHING&sort=6&time=0

 

 

Granted that QS's is a statistic that (like many other raw statistics) can be somewhat belying in its representation of the effectiveness of a team's starting rotation, but I don't think that it is THAT belying. The Orioles' starting pitching at-large in 2018 has given the team a reasonable chance to win games at a considerably higher rate than did the 2017 starting rotation at-large.

 

o

Quick take from reading this:  makes it sound like that if it's not a QS, they're getting bombed. 

[OFFNY]

32 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

The Orioles are currently 7th (out of 30 teams) in the Major Leagues in Quality Starts.

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/team-stats?season=2018&category=PITCHING&sort=6&time=0

 

In 2017, the Orioles were tied for 27th (out of 30 teams) in Quality Starts.

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/team-stats?season=2017&category=PITCHING&sort=6&time=0

 

 

Granted that QS's is a statistic that (like many other raw statistics) can be somewhat belying in its representation of the effectiveness of a team's starting rotation, but I don't think that it is THAT belying. The Orioles' starting pitching at-large in 2018 has given the team a reasonable chance to win games at a considerably higher rate than did the 2017 starting rotation at-large.

 

o

 

 

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Quick take from reading this: makes it sound like that if it's not a QS, they're getting bombed. 

 

o

 

Perhaps, but I suspect that the frequency of the bombings may not be as high as one might assume. The horrible offense (combined with the very sub-par defense) has really made life almost impossible for the Orioles' starting pitchers this season (which is the complete opposite of what happened last season, in which the starting pitching at-large made life nearly impossible for the offense and the bullpen.) 

 

In the last 2 games, the Orioles did not get a Quality start either time, but the starting pitchers didn't exactly get bombed, either. Bundy ceded 4 Runs over 6 Innings Pitched today, and Cobb ceded 5 runs over 7 Innings Pitched yesterday. Granted that the 5 runs that Cobb ceded yesterday is pretty high, but he did complete 7 innings in the process ........ outings like this (7 Innings/5 Runs) would have been largely welcomed from Orioles pitchers not named Bundy or Gausman throughout the majority of the 2017 season. 

 

Also off of the top of my head ........ the Orioles had 2 games this season which were lost when the starting pitchers combined for 17 shutout innings (9 for Gausman, 8 for Bundy) because the offense could not plate a single run in 24 innings (both games wound up being 12-innings losses.)

 

o

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, OFFNY said:

 

 

o

 

Perhaps, but I suspect that the frequency of the bombings may not be as high as one might assume. The horrible offense (combined with the very sub-par defense) has really made life almost impossible for the Orioles' starting pitchers this season (which is the complete opposite of what happened last season, in which the starting pitching at-large made life nearly impossible for the offense and the bullpen.) 

 

In the last 2 games, the Orioles did not get a Quality start either time, but the starting pitchers didn't exactly get bombed, either. Bundy ceded 4 Runs over 6 Innings Pitched today, and Cobb ceded 5 runs over 7 Innings Pitched yesterday. Granted that the 5 runs that Cobb ceded is pretty high, but he did complete 7 innings in the process ........ outings like this (7 Innings/5 Runs) would have been largely welcomed from Orioles pitchers not named Bundy or Gausman throughout the majority of the 2017 season. 

And off the top of my head, the Orioles had 2 games this season which were lost when the starting pitchers combined for 17 shutout innings (9 for Gausman, 8 for Bundy) because the offense could not plate a single run in 24 innings (both games wound up being 12-innings losses.)

 

o

Right, but I thought the starter ERA wasn't significantly better than last years team?

Correct though, the offense is not helping anyone.

[OFFNY]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Right, but I thought that the starter ERA wasn't significantly better than last years team?

Correct though, the offense is not helping anyone.

 

o

 

Well, Cobb getting thoroughly thrashed in his first few starts of the season after having had no Spring Training to work with might explain the skewing (elevating) of the 2018 Orioles' starting pitching ERA a little bit.

Perhaps this first sentence of this quote from Aglets in another thread could explain a little bit more of it. 

 

o

On 6/15/2018 at 1:08 PM, Aglets said:

 

Yea, our ERA is real bad because we've had a few utterly DISASTROUS starts that really skew the data ......... but in reality it's the number of 'good starts' you get throughout the year that is a better metric of your starters ability to keep you in games imo ........... instead of how many total ER you allow all season long. Of course, both things are important.

While there is no single facet of the game that we are doing really well right now ............ it definitely seems to be the offense that's killing us most of all.

 

 

 

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/32153-quality-starts/&page=2&tab=comments#comment-2321034

 

 

[Aglets]

I agree with that guy.  He seems pretty smart.

[FuManchu]

ER Allowed By SP	2017	2018
0-2	40%	35%
3-4	27%	32%
5-6	26%	20%
7+	7%	13%

[Aglets]

37 minutes ago, FuManchu said:

ER Allowed By SP	2017	2018
0-2	40%	35%
3-4	27%	32%
5-6	26%	20%
7+	7%	13%

2:1 ratio of 7+ ER starts seems pretty bad.   Agree that the other data points seem to be pretty mixed.

Here are some more data points that may be meaningful:

2017 O's SP got Quality Starts 37.7% of the time

2018 O's SP get Quality Starts 40.0% of the time

2017 O's SP ERA - 5.70 (worst in MLB)

2018 O's SP ERA - 5.33 (28th)

So yea, any improvements from last year do seem to be pretty minor at the moment..........but I suspect that as we get further and further from the Tillman starts and Alex Cobb's early struggles we will see that gap widen a bit more.  I have to admit Cobb is concerning me after the last two starts.........he seemed to be trending up a bit before..........

[tntoriole]

10 minutes ago, Aglets said:

2:1 ratio of 7+ ER starts seems pretty bad.   Agree that the other data points seem to be pretty mixed.

Here are some more data points that may be meaningful:

2017 O's SP got Quality Starts 37.7% of the time

2018 O's SP get Quality Starts 40.0% of the time

2017 O's SP ERA - 5.70 (worst in MLB)

2018 O's SP ERA - 5.33 (28th)

So yea, any improvements from last year do seem to be pretty minor at the moment..........but I suspect that as we get further and further from the Tillman starts and Alex Cobb's early struggles we will see that gap widen a bit more.  I have to admit Cobb is concerning me after the last two starts.........he seemed to be trending up a bit before..........

Either way...it is usually pretty hard to see any team with a starter team ERA north of 5 ending up anywhere close to .500. 

[Aglets]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Either way...it is usually pretty hard to see any team with a starter team ERA north of 5 ending up anywhere close to .500. 

Another reason why so many of us were amazed that the Orioles were actually in contention for a playoff spot in early September last year.

It's really hard for me to wrap my head around how the results this year are sooooooo much worse with a (marginally) improved rotation.

[OFFNY]

15 hours ago, FuManchu said:

ER Allowed By SP	2017	2018
0-2	40%	35%
3-4	27%	32%
5-6	26%	20%
7+	7%	13%

 

 

14 hours ago, Aglets said:

 

2:1 ratio of 7+ ER starts seems pretty bad.   Agree that the other data points seem to be pretty mixed.

Here are some more data points that may be meaningful:

2017 O's SP got Quality Starts 37.7% of the time

2018 O's SP get Quality Starts 40.0% of the time

2017 O's SP ERA - 5.70 (worst in MLB)

2018 O's SP ERA - 5.33 (28th)

So yea, any improvements from last year do seem to be pretty minor at the moment..........but I suspect that as we get further and further from the Tillman starts and Alex Cobb's early struggles we will see that gap widen a bit more.  I have to admit Cobb is concerning me after the last two starts.........he seemed to be trending up a bit before..........

 

o

 

Another major factor that this chart does not take into consideration is length of the starts.

 

Last year, the Orioles' bullpen was the 3rd-most overworked in all of the Major Leagues. Only the Reds and the Blue Jays logged more innings than did the Orioles' bullpen last year.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

So far this season, the Orioles' bullpen is 15th (out of 30 teams overall) in the Major Leagues in Innings Pitched.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

 

The Rays currently lead the Majors with 313.00 Innings Pitched from their bullpen.

The Orioles' bullpen (15th out of 30 teams overall) has logged 246.33 Innings Pitched.

The Astros' bullpen has been the least-used in the Majors, with 201.00 Innings Pitched.

 

The Astros lead the Majors in Quality Starts (54.)

The Orioles are 8th (out of 30 teams) in the Majors in Quality Starts (32.)

The Rays are 29th (out of 30 teams) in the Majors in Quality Starts (19.)

 

o

[OFFNY]

o

 

 

The whole ball of wax, for the 2018 season ........

 

 

The Orioles were ranked 20th out of 30th MLB teams overall in the ESPN Pre-Season Power Rankings.

11 weeks later, the Orioles are ranked last overall (30th out of 30 MLB teams.)

 

On the other end of the spectrum, the Atlanta Braves began the season ranked 26 out of 30 teams ........ now, they are all the way up to 6th out of 30 teams.

 

 

ESPN Power Rankings ))))))))(Week 11)

 

11) llll Houston Astros

12) )) New York Yankees 

13) lll Boston Red Sox

14) )) Chicago Cubs

15) )) Seattle Mariners

16) )) Atlanta Braves

17) )) Milwaukee Pilots/Brewers

18]lllll Washington Nationals 

19) )) Los Angeles Dodgers 

10) ) Cleveland Indians 

11) ) Arizona Diamondbacks

12) ) California Angels 

13) ) St. Louis Cardinals

14) ) Philadelphia Phillies 

15) ) Colorado Rockies

16) ) Oakland Athletics

17) ) Pittsburgh Pirates 

18) ) San Francisco Giants

19) ) Minnesota Twins

20) ) Tampa Bay Devil Rays 

21) ) San Diego Padres 

22) ) Toronto Blue Jays 

23) ) Detroit Tigers

24) ) Cincinnati Reds 

25) ) New York Mets

26) ) Texas Rangers

27) ) Chicago White Sox

28) ) Florida Marlins 

29) ) Kansas City Royals

30) )  BALTIMORE ORIOLES

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/page/powerrankings/ranking-mlb-teams-week-11

 

o