Olney and Ravech: O's are hemorrhaging Machado's trade value

[Redskins Rick]

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

And that team is going to want him as soon as possible.

I liken this to a classic car that the owner has rebuilt and poured money into.

They put a silly high price on the vehicle, so they can say its for sale, and they will gladly sell at that inflated price, but they don't sell.

Granted in the end, the car doesn't disappear for a comp pick.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, atomic said:

Then they need to make an offer the Orioles can't refuse.  You still hold onto the misguided view the earlier you trade you get more value when that isn't true.  

Is it not true?  

Manny Machado has more value when a team has more control over him.  Manny Machado under 2 years of contract for a team is more valuable than Manny Machado under 3 months of contract control.  

Does that not make sense? 

[atomic]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Is it not true?  

Manny Machado has more value when a team has more control over him.  Manny Machado under 2 years of contract for a team is more valuable than Manny Machado under 3 months of contract control.  

 Does that not make sense? 

I don't know where you get 2 years from. No way the team would have traded him 2 years ago.  The argument that it is better to trade him now than at the trade deadline.  They will get more at the deadline than now.  

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, atomic said:

I don't know where you get 2 years from. No way the team would have traded him 2 years ago.  The argument that it is better to trade him now than at the trade deadline.  They will get more at the deadline than now.  

They should have traded him at least a year ago.

We'll never know if they get more at the deadline than they would now.  Quite frankly, a few weeks doesn't make much of a difference.  

They're hoping they can get a team to get desperate and overwhelm them, but that's not a plan.  That's hope.  Let's also not forget that he's not the only 3rd baseman that'll be available.  You're leaving out a lot of things.

[wildbillhiccup]

The Orioles should have explored trading Machado as soon as they were certain they couldn't resign him. Three years ago, two years ago, this past off season whenever that was. That was their mistake. And if they didn't realize they wouldn't be able to resign him until this past off season that was their even bigger mistake. 

Now he has to be traded for whatever they can get for him. They should set a deadline, tell teams to make their best offer, then trade him to the highest bidder. They need to create a sense of urgency / bidding war. 

[NCRaven]

On 6/22/2018 at 3:39 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Plenty of moves are made in the offseason, which is when Manny should have been traded.

You're right.  But, since we don't have a way back machine, and can only do something now or in the future, not in the past, it is not relevant to the current situation.

[Bradysburns]

On 6/22/2018 at 3:47 PM, Aristotelian said:

Peter strikes me as the type of guy who would rather not deal than risk getting fleeced. He is that guy in your fantasy league who always asks for your best player for his two mediocre players, then comes back with an even worse deal after you refuse, and never, ever completes a trade. 

So true. The other thing is, if they (whoever's running the front office) decide to trade Manny, it will represent an admission that ALL offseason moves of the last couple of years have been for naught... Wastes of tens of millions of dollars, essentially. 

I can see a situation where the front-office slow-plays a Manny trade, just so they don't have to admit -- to themselves and Peter -- that their plan failed.

One hallmark of an imploding organization is lack of accountability, honesty and a rash of finger-pointing. 

 

[sevastras]

Get your best offer together, leak the offer, see if anyone steps up to outbid and then whatever you are left with, ask for a couple  single A second year players that might have an outside chance of doing something 4 years down the road on top of the best offer.  You create the urgency or the deadline creates it, I would rather control the urgency now.  And dont be set on 2 major league ready pitchers, get the best you can no matter the position because you arent competing next year either.   

[sevastras]

10 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

So true. The other thing is, if they (whoever's running the front office) decide to trade Manny, it will represent an admission that ALL offseason moves of the last couple of years have been for naught... Wastes of tens of millions of dollars, essentially. 

I can see a situation where the front-office slow-plays a Manny trade, just so they don't have to admit -- to themselves and Peter -- that their plan failed.

One hallmark of an imploding organization is lack of accountability, honesty and a rash of finger-pointing. 

 

The win-loss record shows they failed, there isnt a more clear sign.  We need to trade Manny, Jones, Britton, Brach everyone that we can whose contract is expiring or has value and rebuild the whole thing.  If not, we can only hope to compete for wild cards at the very best.  If we traded Manny and Jones now, we have Beckham and Rasmus to take their places.  Move Rasmus to center, Trumbo to right and hope that Rasmus gets hot enough to trade at the deadline for a B or C prospect.

[24fps]

22 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Is it not true?  

Manny Machado has more value when a team has more control over him.  Manny Machado under 2 years of contract for a team is more valuable than Manny Machado under 3 months of contract control.  

Does that not make sense? 

When Manny had two years of team control left the team that controlled him had just gone 89-73 with a wildcard appearance.  At the time it was justifiable to assume the team was going to be competitive the next year which indeed it was until the second week of September.  Putting a competitive team on the field every year ought to be default mission statement for any team, just ask their fan base - their primary fanbase, not the minority who spend too much time on message boards and/or playing fantasy baseball.  Calling out a team for abandoning that goal to pursue some abstract theory concocted in a vacuum is simply unreasonable. 

I have a hard time begrudging the O's taking one final, best shot last season.  This season is a much, much different story.  

[webbrick2010]

27 minutes ago, sevastras said:

Get your best offer together, leak the offer, see if anyone steps up to outbid and then whatever you are left with, ask for a couple  single A second year players that might have an outside chance of doing something 4 years down the road on top of the best offer.  You create the urgency or the deadline creates it, I would rather control the urgency now.  And dont be set on 2 major league ready pitchers, get the best you can no matter the position because you arent competing next year either.    

Bingo that is exactly how they should be doing it. Get a deal from Team A, go to team B who hopefully is a competitor of team A and get them to beat the offer... and so forth

I'm not sure the O's have anyone that knows the phone numbers of the other GM's

[sevastras]

7 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Bingo that is exactly how they should be doing it. Get a deal from Team A, go to team B who hopefully is a competitor of team A and get them to beat the offer... and so forth

I'm not sure the O's have anyone that knows the phone numbers of the other GM's

Or the scouting to know if they are getting a great offer or not.

[Yardball85]

37 minutes ago, sevastras said:

Get your best offer together, leak the offer, see if anyone steps up to outbid and then whatever you are left with, ask for a couple  single A second year players that might have an outside chance of doing something 4 years down the road on top of the best offer.  You create the urgency or the deadline creates it, I would rather control the urgency now.  And dont be set on 2 major league ready pitchers, get the best you can no matter the position because you arent competing next year either.   

of course this is correct.  But are the guys actually making the decisions smart enough to do something like this?

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, 24fps said:

When Manny had two years of team control left the team that controlled him had just gone 89-73 with a wildcard appearance.  At the time it was justifiable to assume the team was going to be competitive the next year which indeed it was until the second week of September.  Putting a competitive team on the field every year ought to be default mission statement for any team, just ask their fan base - their primary fanbase, not the minority who spend too much time on message boards and/or playing fantasy baseball.  Calling out a team for abandoning that goal to pursue some abstract theory concocted in a vacuum is simply unreasonable. 

I have a hard time begrudging the O's taking one final, best shot last season.  This season is a much, much different story.  

I'm aware, but I didn't say they should have traded him with 2 years of team control.  I used it as an example of how team control is more valuable.  

I'm with @wildbillhiccup when he said that they should have traded him as soon as they figured they couldn't resign him long term.  That's murky waters, no one will be able to ever have figured out when that was, specifically.  But I don't think any of us ever thought that Manny was going to stick around here.  We've been talking about it for awhile here.

So if a group of us who sit around and flick our boogers all day had a good feeling that Manny wasn't going to sign here long term, how could this team not know and not done anything about it?  

You aren't wrong that putting a competitive team on the field should be the default mission, but I would say that a sustainable long term period of winning is more important.  It'd be nice if we could perhaps have a decade and a half of winning like the Braves did, right?  In this particular case with the Orioles that would have meant trading Manny while the team was 80+ wins in order to re-stock the cabinet with young talent that could help in the next 2-3 years.  

Instead, we're in the current situation with a terrible, inflexible roster full of aging veterans and one stud who teams are going to be reluctant to give a massive haul for because he's got 3 months left on his current contract.  

[24fps]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm aware, but I didn't say they should have traded him with 2 years of team control.  I used it as an example of how team control is more valuable.  

I'm with @wildbillhiccup when he said that they should have traded him as soon as they figured they couldn't resign him long term.  That's murky waters, no one will be able to ever have figured out when that was, specifically.  But I don't think any of us ever thought that Manny was going to stick around here.  We've been talking about it for awhile here.

So if a group of us who sit around and flick our boogers all day had a good feeling that Manny wasn't going to sign here long term, how could this team not know and not done anything about it?  

You aren't wrong that putting a competitive team on the field should be the default mission, but I would say that a sustainable long term period of winning is more important.  It'd be nice if we could perhaps have a decade and a half of winning like the Braves did, right?  In this particular case with the Orioles that would have meant trading Manny while the team was 80+ wins in order to re-stock the cabinet with young talent that could help in the next 2-3 years.  

Instead, we're in the current situation with a terrible, inflexible roster full of aging veterans and one stud who teams are going to be reluctant to give a massive haul for because he's got 3 months left on his current contract.  

I think that something has been lost at this point and that is that a good player has value as something more than just a trade chip.  A great player even more so regardless of his willingness or lack of willingness to sign long-term.  If the 2016 Orioles looked and played like the 2018 Orioles I would have been leading the charge to trade him immediately.

I agree with the goal of sustainable long-term success but there are many ways to get there.  The 2015 Orioles were 81-81.  My suggestion for that offseason was to trade Britton and AJ.  Not resign CD (but go no more than 5/100 if you do) and not offer a QO to Wieters.  The point was to risk another .500 season to extend the competitive window beyond 2018 and I believe the return from the Britton and AJ trades could have done that while still having two final years of Manny in his prime.  The way the organization has handled Manny's time with the team deserves all the criticism it's gotten IMO, but I have to say I've enjoyed watching Manny up to now and I'm glad he's been on the team.