Are You Happy

[ChuckS]

I like the direction and I'm content with the returns from Machado, Britton, and Schoop. 

The Gausman deal really took the jam out of my doughnut though.  

[section18]

Does anyone know which pitcher was traded today with a major league record of 39-51 in six seasons ?

That's right ! Kevin Gausman !  We aced the trade with Atlanta.

[NashLumber]

6 minutes ago, FastEddie said:

 

Looking for someone to come back and tell me Manny never would have signed long-term in Baltimore, but I’m under the impression be would have. It feel like we chose Davis over Machado and are forced to blow up our team because of it.

We would not have been able to afford Manny in free agency. The time to extend passed long ago, too. We’d be outbid. And yes, we gave the long term high dollar contract to the wrong guy, Davis, instead. But hey, we lost in grand style this year with both of them and we can lose for a few more years with Manny gone (and who knows what will become of Davis and the team the rest of his deal). Maybe they think with all the money saved, they may be able to cut Davis free and just let him go and eat the rest of his contract. Not expecting it, but it’s an option. He’ll still be here blocking whomever we really need at 1B and thus forcing guys to play out of position. That seems out of character for the aggressive rebuild. Consider it a sunk cost and move on. 

[weams]

 

[ChuckS]

41 minutes ago, section18 said:

Does anyone know which pitcher was traded today with a major league record of 39-51 in six seasons ?

That's right ! Kevin Gausman !  We aced the trade with Atlanta.

Lost me at career record.  If you had mentioned ERA, WHIP, IP, SO rate....you may have held my attention. 

[ScGO's]

Another thing to consider in all of this too is that the markets on players are changing into something new that we haven't really seen yet. We saw it in the offseason with contracts players did and didn't get.  The multiple avenues for teams to acquire talent + teams valuing controllable players more may drive down contracts this year too.  I wonder if Harper and Machado get much less than they imagined in years and money.  With trades, there is value in talent of the returned players, money saved, years of control, and now comp picks and intl money.  There was a lot of value in these trades if you look at the market this way.  

[glenn__davis]

Pleased that the team seems to finally be embracing modern evaluation of players.

Not at all impressed with the collective return.

[Catch 8]

4 hours ago, Thato'sfan said:

So...we are calling the trade a bust already. What if Villar reverts to 2016 form? What if Ortiz turns into a solid #3 starter? What if Carmona turns into an all-star? 

C'mon man...you should know better than that. I would argue that any single one of those three outcomes would make the trade a win for us.

I can't offer appropriate insight on the prospects we received this afternoon beyond the fact that they are not consensus top-100 prospects.  I just arrived home, so I don't even know what scouts and industry experts think.

I am confident stating that trades should and can only be evaluated on a prospective basis.  "What if ______ turns into an all-star?" is retrospective evaluation, which assumes knowledge of the future. 

For example, one (inebriated) clown in my fantasy football league drafted Kareem Hunt last year for $14/$200 in an auction format.  We endlessly ridiculed the owner's stupid selection, but it turned out marvelously for him.  It still doesn't mean it was a good decision.

I am having a difficult time wrapping my head around the fact that we acquired one top-100 prospect for Machado, Britton, Schoop and Gausman.  Gausman's service clock situation should have fetched consensus top prospects.

I'll do some reading and try to understand this mess a little better.  I am completely for tearing it apart, but could have we waited for better returns for Schoop and especially Gausman?

[Luke-OH]

I'm not happy that the Orioles are losing.

I am happy that the team has chosen a direction and appear to be moving in that direction in a decisive and competent manner.

[Thato'sfan]

1 minute ago, Catch 8 said:

I can't offer appropriate insight on the prospects we received this afternoon beyond the fact that they are not consensus top-100 prospects.  I just arrived home, so I don't even know what scouts and industry experts think.

I am confident stating that trades should and can only be evaluated on a prospective basis.  "What if ______ turns into an all-star?" is retrospective evaluation, which assumes knowledge of the future. 

For example, one (inebriated) clown in my fantasy football league drafted Kareem Hunt last year for $14/$200 in an auction format.  We endlessly ridiculed the owner's stupid selection, but it turned out marvelously for him.  It still doesn't mean it was a good decision.

I am having a difficult time wrapping my head around the fact that we acquired one top-100 prospect for Machado, Britton, Schoop and Gausman.  Gausman's service clock situation should have fetched consensus top prospects.

I'll do some reading and try to understand this mess a little better.  I am completely for tearing it apart, but could have we waited for better returns for Schoop and especially Gausman?

Well Ortiz is projected to be a solid #3, Carmona has one of the highest ceilings in the system, and Villar is a bounce-back candidate who is, at the worst, a plus defensive utility man. So the Schoop return is actually pretty good.

[Malike]

Top 100 prospect lists are fluid. There today, gone tomorrow. There is a chance that some guys we got back in trades will make a top 100 list. 1/3 of baseball players who are above average 3+ wins were never considered top prospects or even good prospects, according to Fangraphs.. I'm content with the returns they got back and excited to see what lies ahead.

[Catch 8]

Just now, Thato'sfan said:

Well Ortiz is projected to be a solid #3, Carmona has one of the highest ceilings in the system, and Villar is a bounce-back candidate who is, at the worst, a plus defensive utility man. So the Schoop return is actually pretty good.

Your word is what I am going on right now.  I was just using your post to illustrate a point on prospective evaluation--not trying to pick on you

[esmd]

I wouldn't say happy.  Happy would be us about 15-20 games over .500 with a chance to win the division and maybe more.

I would describe it as accepting the necessity and hoping for the best.

[Thato'sfan]

Also, the Gausman deal, prospect wise is underwhelming. But, if you take the big picture into account it becomes a good trade. We dump a lot of salary while adding a potential back end starter, controllable reliever with upside, high floor catcher with potential to become an everyday starter, and a guy who might have the absolute highest ceiling in the entire system. The last being Encarnacion, a third baseman who has a plus arm, solid defense, plus raw power, and a quick bat. He has been better than Mountcastle was at low A and while rawer and a year older, the ceiling is as high as anybody. To get someone with a ceiling as high as Carmona/Encarnacion we had to trade for lower minors guys. I believe @Luke-OH mentioned how teams know a prospect's potential to succeed better than ever, and therefore higher level guys are more difficult to acquire.

[Thato'sfan]

4 minutes ago, Catch 8 said:

Your word is what I am going on right now.  I was just using your post to illustrate a point on prospective evaluation--not trying to pick on you

Yeah, I probably shouldn't have based my argument on what ifs.