If Andy MacPhail was the O's GM....

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

Really?  That's really surprising that he's seen as a 4th starter.   He's only pitched 2 full seasons, and 1 of those he was a solid #2, and for most of the rest of his career he's been somewhere between league-average starter to slightly above that.  My definition of a 4th starter is a serviceable but barely-average (or slightly below) player, and Gausman has been pretty consistently better than that, at least when you consider whole seasons. (I know he sucked first 1/2 2017.)  I feel like he is being labeled a bust because he hasn't reached (what people perceive to be) his ceiling.

His splitter is as good as it's ever been - .558 OPSA and 20% whiff rate.  There isn't much indication that players are ignoring the splitter - his swing rate on the splitter is the highest of his career.  And he's throwing it more than ever. The bigger issue is that he has to rely on his splitter so much because his lower-velo, better-control fastball is getting lit up this year.

Well said.   Glad to see another sane person speak out.

[Luke-OH]

10 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Tony,

What happen to Gausman, he was supposed to be a sure bet TOR guy, and never came close to it.

Did they over-value him?

Did they under coach him?

If he going to end up like Jake, where some other team, gets him to be all that he could be.

 

I think there is a tendency to over-value pitchers with plus or better velocity, but straight FBs that don't miss barrels on the plate. 

If you have a straight FB, you either need to command it well (Gausman hasn't been able to do that consistently.) or keep hitters off balance by being able to throw offspeed stuff in any count (Gausman hasn't been able to do that either).

He has flashes of putting those things I just mentioned together, but has been plagued by inconsistency.

[weams]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

I think there is a tendency to over-value pitchers with plus or better velocity, but straight FBs that don't miss barrels on the plate. 

If you have a straight FB, you either need to command it well (Gausman hasn't been able to do that consistently.) or keep hitters off balance by being able to throw offspeed stuff in any count (Gausman hasn't been able to do that either).

He has flashes of putting those things I just mentioned together, but has been plagued by inconsistency.

I loved his relief outing of the Delmon game. 

[tntoriole]

11 hours ago, wildcard said:

just think what he could have gotten for Schoop and Gausman.

I am not saying that MacPhail  should be the O's GM.  But the difference between what he could get in return for a trade seems massive compared to what Dan Duquette got for Jonathan and Kevin.

Nonsense.  Dan has an excellent track record in trades.  Much better in his career than Andy MacPhail.  Trading for Pedro Martinez not once, but twice is evidence enough.  But one could also look at his trade of Heathcliff Slocumb for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe.   Dan is a very competent GM with a long track record of excellence with the Expos and Red Sox and I doubt anyone could have done these deals better.   If allowed to tear it down last winter, the return would have been better. 

 

[foxfield]

27 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

In forumville there are few things more enjoyable than seeing a sanctimonious post unraveled by unintended irony.

You tried hard, you get an A for affort, my friend. 

If I somehow misinterpreted your meaning I am infinitely sorry. But I could look for infinity and I don’t think I would see beyond your hyperbole.

[Hallas]

34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well said.   Glad to see another sane person speak out.

I'm sane?  news to me.   I can't be that sane.  I willingly follow and cheer for a AAA team masquerading as a major league baseball team.

[OFFNY]

8 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

If I somehow misinterpreted your meaning, I am infinitely sorry. But I could look for infinity, and I don’t think that I would see beyond your hyperbole. ) 

 

o

 

I think that he may have been referring to the spelling/use of the term '"complement" (instead of "compliment") in your previous post.

 

o

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Hallas said:

Really?  That's really surprising that he's seen as a 4th starter.   He's only pitched 2 full seasons, and 1 of those he was a solid #2, and for most of the rest of his career he's been somewhere between league-average starter to slightly above that.  My definition of a 4th starter is a serviceable but barely-average (or slightly below) player, and Gausman has been pretty consistently better than that, at least when you consider whole seasons. (I know he sucked first 1/2 2017.)  I feel like he is being labeled a bust because he hasn't reached (what people perceive to be) his ceiling.

His splitter is as good as it's ever been - .558 OPSA and 20% whiff rate.  There isn't much indication that players are ignoring the splitter - his swing rate on the splitter is the highest of his career.  And he's throwing it more than ever. The bigger issue is that he has to rely on his splitter so much because his lower-velo, better-control fastball is getting lit up this year.

I think this is where you differ from most baseball organizations. That's more of a number 5 starter. A Number four is going to be a league average starter, who can give innings, but who will give up some runs. They probably have one plus pitch and two average pitches. There is very little difference between a #3 and #4 with consistency being the main difference.

Gausman has always had the potential to be better than #4 starter, but look at the results. He's a league average innings eater (at least by today's standards) who has never taken that step forward for a whole season.

[Tony-OH]

59 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well said.   Glad to see another sane person speak out.

Wait, so the rest of us our insane because we are telling you how the rest of the non Orange and black wearing fans value the players available?

You are better than that statement. I understand that you are a homer and get that you are going to look on the shiny side of everything even if every bit of impartial evidence points to something else. That doesn't make me call you insane.

You are welcome to think Gausman was a #2 or TOR all you want, the reality is in the numbers and he's never been that guy for a full season. The additional reality is baseball did not view him as that so you get the return you get. At the end of the day the Orioles were not going to get more value out of him unless he suddenly blossomed and he's shown no inkling of doing that while with the Orioles.

Now he gets to pitch to seven/eight batters out of nine so his numbers should make a jump. 

[FlipTheBird]

11 hours ago, wildcard said:

I agree about him as a GM.  But he sure could do some good trades.  That is all I am saying.  Bedard, Hardy, Davis and Hunter.........

Hardy, Davis and Hunter were not guy's that AM squeezed out of anyone... at the time of their acquisition, all three were essentially spare parts on the side of the road. Hardy Andy Davis were able to pull their acts together - and in Hardy's case, stay healthy - for a couple of years. They were low-risk investments that worked out, not some wizardry. DD has won on his fair share of scrap collecting, too - Cruz, Trumbo, etc.

[Redskins Rick]

22 hours ago, wildcard said:

So why trade Gausman and Schoop at the deadline for less.   Wait until the off season.   

Why,

Then you would have complained, we should have traded them in mid-season.

[Redskins Rick]

12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I think there is a tendency to over-value pitchers with plus or better velocity, but straight FBs that don't miss barrels on the plate. 

If you have a straight FB, you either need to command it well (Gausman hasn't been able to do that consistently.) or keep hitters off balance by being able to throw offspeed stuff in any count (Gausman hasn't been able to do that either).

He has flashes of putting those things I just mentioned together, but has been plagued by inconsistency.

Like the little girl with curls, when she is on, she is dazzling.

Throw off-speed, isn't that a coachable thing? I know you can't teach heat, but he has heat.

[DirtyBird]

11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I think this is where you differ from most baseball organizations. That's more of a number 5 starter. A Number four is going to be a league average starter, who can give innings, but who will give up some runs. They probably have one plus pitch and two average pitches. There is very little difference between a #3 and #4 with consistency being the main difference.

Gausman has always had the potential to be better than #4 starter, but look at the results. He's a league average innings eater (at least by today's standards) who has never taken that step forward for a whole season.

Mathematically speaking, this can't be true, though it might be true if you only factor in true contenders.  

[LocoChris]

19 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Why,

Then you would have complained, we should have traded them in mid-season.

Considering that this was a buyer’s market, DD would have been perfectly justified waiting until the winter meetings to trade Gausman. 

The more I look at this trade the more I don’t like it. 

[wildcard]

11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Wait, so the rest of us our insane because we are telling you how the rest of the non Orange and black wearing fans value the players available?

You are better than that statement. I understand that you are a homer and get that you are going to look on the shiny side of everything even if every bit of impartial evidence points to something else. That doesn't make me call you insane.

You are welcome to think Gausman was a #2 or TOR all you want, the reality is in the numbers and he's never been that guy for a full season. The additional reality is baseball did not view him as that so you get the return you get. At the end of the day the Orioles were not going to get more value out of him unless he suddenly blossomed and he's shown no inkling of doing that while with the Orioles.

Now he gets to pitch to seven/eight batters out of nine so his numbers should make a jump. 

I didn't call anyone insane.   I just think most OH fans look at Gausman numbers and see a pitcher less that who he is.   They don't realize the impact that poor defense and poor offense had on his numbers.   I expect he will do really well in Atlanta.  He should be really comfortable with Nick, Ryan and Brad on the team. Better defense and offense will allow him to put up great numbers.