Grade the Rebuild, Phase I

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

Serious question...how many top 100 players were moved during the deadline season? I really don't know, or know where to find that out. It seems as though teams are valuing their prospects and not parting with them as easily as before.

1.   Mejia (to Indians): ranked 20, 11 and 5 by BA, MLB.com and BP, respectively going into 2018.

2.   Meadows (to Pirates): 44, 45, 34.

3.   Díaz (to Orioles): ranked 73 by BP going into 2018. 

4.   Glasgow (to Pirates): lost rookie status in 2017, but was ranked 23, 9 and 14 going into that season.   

Note: Diaz has been on a couple of mid season lists, and others’ rankings also may have changed. On MLB.com, Mejia was 21 and Diaz 57.  

[Natty]

22 minutes ago, Mondo Trasho said:

If they "dump" Davis, they're still on the hook for his paycheck. No one is taking his contract off our hands. I don't see the O's front office paying Davis and not playing him.

I know Davis's contract is guaranteed. But he is on pace to have the lowest batting avg in modern baseball history. Why play him? Maybe some new young guy can hit .150. We should offer Davis a buyout. He can't drag the team down for 4 more years. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

4 minutes ago, Natty said:

I know Davis's contract is guaranteed. But he is on pace to have the lowest batting avg in modern baseball history. Why play him? Maybe some new young guy can hit .150. We should offer Davis a buyout. He can't drag the team down for 4 more years. 

Actually, if ever there was a time to let him ride it out for a while, it is now. We don't really have anyone behind him. We aren't competing. Might as well hope he can get that OPS back north of 700 somehow. 

[ISU94]

4 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

People in the Gausman thread seemed to think he would bring back more than we got in total for Machado, Schoop, Britton, and Gausman. Without a top 100 mlb player, top 100 talent and only 1 (zero according to some) top 100 mlb prospect, I don’t think Dan gets a passing grade. The international money would be interesting if we could save it and if we had any infrastructure in place internationally. 

I personally believe Mountcastle and Hall are top 50 prospectsand Hays is top 100, but grading by the actual experts, we have no enviable assets. 

Rebuilds generally net you some talent to build around, we didn’t get that. 

If we are going to invest in a rebuild of our scouting department, we should have waited to trade Gausman and probably Schoop and seen who the new blood likes. We likely need some new eyes in the organization, I would have liked to see us hold out on Gausman. We traded everyone at the time their value was the lowest, it’s unfortunate that Givens and Brach have been so bad, they were pieces that could have brought back something last year.

Im glad Angelos stopped the Britton deal last season, I like this package more than Moran. 

Diaz, Ortiz, and Tate def have that potential. JCE, Zimmerman, Carmona, Cumberland, Bannon and Kremer definitely have potential to either be solid pieces (Zimm a #3/#4 with his uptick in stuff, Cumberland if they have the view like FG has of him), and Carmona/JCE have a chance to be top end prospects in our system in a year or two from now with good development. Pop, Phillips, Carroll, and co. who project as relievers all have seriously good stuff and reason to believe they can be backend of the bullpen guys or at the very least 7th inning/middle relievers. 

We definitely got pieces that can be huge for the rebuild back at this deadline and with the Britton/Manny deals. 

Think you are underselling what we got. Guys don't have to be on a top 100 list to either continue improving and break past what people think (Zimm, Cumberland, Tate, Ortiz, Kremer definitely at the top when talking about this) and we got some guys with upside to be at a top tier level in a year or two from now (JCE/Carmona). These were for guys that were either expiring, a year out of expiring, and a guy in Gaus that clearly wasn't going to turn the corner here and has had a mid 4 FIP the last two years.

The $2.5M in IFA $ needs to be taken into account as well. That's a massive allotment. Yankees just traded a solid reliever in Warren for just $1.5M alone. Not to mention we unloaded a bad contract in DOD and shed 30M+ in cash to help provide resources for what DD has been talking about since he got the go ahead from John/Lou.

[Bradysburns]

1 hour ago, Finisher said:

Whatever reason may be pitching coach that doesn't actually help anyone. Buck's TTP obsession. Facing Red Sox and Yankees. Awful defense behind him. Camden Yards.

Wade Miley has a 1.53 ERA this year. Gonna be fun if Gausman turns into Arrieta 2.0.

 

We traded Jake and his 5-plus ERA after years of failure at the MLB level. He NEVER turned in a season like Gausman has... as in 3.70 ERA and 100-plus innings. 

We're trading away Gausman knowing he can succeed for long stretches at the MLB level. 

I get the comp. I've made it myself. But in some ways, we're trading KG when we KNOW he can dominate at this level. Because he has, in long stretches. 

In other words, I think this is -- on its face -- more risky than trading Jake was at the time.  

[NATTYBO's]

1 minute ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

Actually, if ever there was a time to let him ride it out for a while, it is now. We don't really have anyone behind him. We aren't competing. Might as well hope he can get that OPS back north of 700 somehow. 

I agree, make his life miserable....move him to DH batting 9th,  Mancini to 1b & rookies in the outfield

[Mondo Trasho]

7 minutes ago, Natty said:

I know Davis's contract is guaranteed. But he is on pace to have the lowest batting avg in modern baseball history. Why play him? Maybe some new young guy can hit .150. We should offer Davis a buyout. He can't drag the team down for 4 more years. 

I'm not sure why he'd take a buyout that would be anything less than what he's owed. It's not as if he can go out and get another high paying MLB job after this.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Mondo Trasho said:

I'm not sure why he'd take a buyout that would be anything less than what he's owed. It's not as if he can go out and get another high paying MLB job after this.

or need to.

[El Gordo]

37 minutes ago, LocoChris said:

C+. Not enough top prospects back to warrant a higher grade. 

Of the top 20 prospects traded this deadline the O's got 8, 3 in the top 10. https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-dealt-at-trade-deadline/c-288215938

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

What’s your overall grade for the rebuild effort so far, including the five trades and overall change of direction?    Poll above, and feel free to elaborate here.    

I like it. I am more excited about the O's now than before the trades. DD is doing a good job. IMO 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

12 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Of the top 20 prospects traded this deadline the O's got 8, 3 in the top 10. https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-dealt-at-trade-deadline/c-288215938

Actually 3 in the top 5. Encouraged to see how highly they think of Tate. Fangraphs wasn't as high. Also, this list doesn't seem to have the Braves trade or the Pirates/Archer trade.. 

[CheeryO]

29 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

Why especially the Braves?

Because the Braves have the reputation of being among the most shrewd and conservative teams when it comes to dealing and signing players.  Of all franchises they are the most willing to be terrible for several years while stocking the minors with talent -- and then continue to hold onto prospects even when they're within striking distance of winning the division.  They're a bit too conservative in my opinion.  But then again they have had one of the worst TV deals in baseball, so they are not as wealthy a team as they should be.  Also with their renewed success they could be holding their top prospects for a deGrom or someone like that.

[ISU94]

8 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

We need to beat Boston and the NYY, I don’t think we got anyone who will ever be a player who would make either teams 25 man. 

The RP arms we got back are lesser arms and older than Jesus Liranzo who we gave away. We got our rule 5 guys in trades, ok.

What do we do with international money when the prospects have been signed and we have no infrastructure down there? I have heard on mlb talk shows that the Yanks want to sign VVM, they didn’t trade to sign a bunch of guys everyone missed out on. They traded a relief arm who was expendable, they are great now and can’t get ABs for all of their young bats or innings for all of their incredible arms. That’s a true lottery ticket, a shot at VVM. I think people are overselling the prospects we got, the international money, and the value of dumping O’day. 

Schoop and Gausman are 26 and 27, Pop is 25? What rebuild takes so long that a 26 year old couldn’t be signed to be a part of it? Schoop will be a good mlb player in 5 years, so will KG, those are the only guarantees and Kremer, Tate, Diaz are guys we got for the rentals. They appear to be 3 of the 4 most likely to contribute to an appearance in the playoffs down the line.

The value of O’day being dumped is only seen by the Angelos family. That doesn’t help us do anything. 

We were the favorites to sign VVM, hopefully we are still the favorites. The best prospects we will get as a result of these trades will be in the draft if we are ever going to compete again, by 2030 wildfires will be consuming the whole of the planet.

 

 

I'm just gonna stop reading here...

[MrOrange82]

I might start referring to Frobby as "professor" due to all these graded polls. 

And, true to my past academic performances, I'm going to award this response a C+. 

[Greg Pappas]

To expand upon a previous post, here is a recap of the deals thus far:

For Manny Machado we received from the Dodgers--

• 21-year old OF Yusniel Diaz, R/R, 6'1 195, Signed w/Dodgers 2015, IFA Cuba
• 22-year old RHSP Dean Kremer, R/R, 6'3 180, Draft: 2016, Dodgers, 14th rd., College: UNLV
• 22-year old 3B/2B Rylan Bannon, R/R, 5'10 180, Draft: 2017, Dodgers, 8th rd., College: Xavier
• 21-year old RHRP Zach Pop, R/R, 6'4 220, Draft: 2017, Dodgers, 7th rd., College: Kentucky
• 26-year old UTIL Breyvic Valera, S/R, 5'11 160, Signed w/Cardinals 2010, IFA Venezuela

For Zach Britton we received from the Yankees--

• 24-year old RHSP Dillon Tate, R/R, 6'2 195, Draft: 2015, Rangers, 1st rd., College: UCSB
• 25-year old RHRP Cody Carroll, R/R, 6'5 215, Draft: 2015, Yankees, 22nd rd., College: Southern Mississippi
• 24-year old LHSP Josh Rogers, L/L, 6'3 220, Draft: 2015, Yankees, 11th rd., College: Louisville

For Brad Brach we received from the Braves--

• $250,000 in International signing bonus allocation money

For Kevin Gausman we received from the Braves--

• $2.5 million in International signing bonus allocation money
• 20-year old 3B Jean Carlos Encarnacion, R/R, 6'3 195
• 23-year old Catcher Brett Cumberland, S/R, 5'11 205, Draft: 2016, Braves, 2nd rd. (76th overall) College: California
• 23-year old LHSP Bruce Zimmerman, L/L, 6'3 215, Draft: 2017, Braves, 5th rd. College: Mt. Olive & Towson U. (Born in Baltimore, MD) Here's an interesting read on him
• 23-year old RHRP Evan Phillips, R/R 6'2 215, Draft: 2015 Braves 17th rd., College: UNC Wilmington (Born in Salisbury, MD)

For Jonathan Schoop we received- from the Brewers-

• 22-year old RHSP Luis Ortiz, R/R, 6'3 230, Draft: 2014 Rangers 1st rd. (30th overall) Sanger HS (CA)
• 18-year old SS Jean Carmona, S/R, 6'1 183, Signed w/Brewers 2016, IFA Dominican Republic
• 27-year old Infielder Jonathan Villar, R/R, 6'1 215, Signed w/Phillies 2008, IFA Dominican Republic