Grade the Rebuild, Phase I

[Go_Os]

We didn't get an elite young talent (someone like Moncada, Eloy Jimenez), so I think our prospect haul was a C+.  However, due to the large number of players we acquired you have to think a few turn into All-Star players.  The international bonus money was huge, especially since it's so refreshing that the philosophy is changing.  You know that it must have been painful for Duquette to trade so much bonus pool money over the past years.  Additionally, we are almost guaranteed to have a top pick in the next two drafts, so hopefully, we can get lucky like the Nats and draft our Strasburg and Harper.

Overall, I would give a B+.

[baltfan]

Kyle Glaser: They absolutely sold low on Schoop, although if Villar bounces back and becomes the player he was in 2016 it won’t feel like a huge letdown. Gausman is the one deal they made that frankly made little sense, even if they sign Mesa (who they would keep, not flip). Given what other starters went for, that’s the trade the O’s made that is probably the most disappointing in its return. Shedding O’Day’s salary was part of the equation too, of course, but the O’s had already shed plenty of salary and needed talent more than additional salary relief.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/kyle-glaser-mlb-trade-deadline-review-chat-8118/

 

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

 

I hope they are right about Cumberland and I'm missing something, but from what I've seen, that's kind of an insane ranking of him. 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I hope they are right about Cumberland and I'm missing something, but from what I've seen, that's kind of an insane ranking of him. 

There is literally non one that is nearly as high on Cumberland as Fangraphs.   They also have Diaz completely out of their mid season top 131 

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

I think your OH bio should be amended with a replacement of the word watches with studies. That’s what you do it seems to me, I have a family of professional sports scouts/coaches and you appear to do what they do; studying a swing, and watching an AB, are obviously quite different. I only mention it because I was watching Cumberland and I love his swing, it looks quick and a bit like Muncy’s from the left side, he looks like he’s got a fluid swing that will naturally create a high FB% and I found myself wondering what you thought of his swing. I don’t study baseball, I watch it. 

If they are right about Cumberland, I will pay for Dans next 400 haircuts. That should only cost about 50 dollars give or take.

 

When I watch live, it's generally just impressions about a player's effort, physicality, athleticism. I do most of my grading of players watching video, I'll watch just the plays involving a player in maybe 4-10 games (some players are easier to figure out than others). I'm all about process, almost nothing about results when I watch video. I try and basically come up with how I'd expect the player to perform based on that assessment, then I look how they've actually performed statistically and if the performance doesn't match the process/tools, then I go back and try and reconcile those two things, figure out what's causing the player to outperform/underperform expectations. I'm still learning, but that's generally my method.

It's funny that you mention Muncy, because it is a very Dodgers swing. I love the mechanics of the swing, they are excellent, I've been watching it frame by frame. He's been messing around with a big leg kick, it's similar to Justin Turner's swing as well.

He's not the athlete in the box that any of those guys are, he lacks the explosiveness or fluidity those dudes have. I think he'll have trouble not striking out 30+% and I haven't watched his defense yet, but the reports seem to be that he's a fringe defender there at best. I think he has starting catcher upside, but he's more likely a backup catcher if he sticks, but there is plenty of risk because I don't think the bat plays at 1B.

[Luke-OH]

12 minutes ago, baltfan said:

There is literally non one that is nearly as high on Cumberland as Fangraphs.   They also have Diaz completely out of their mid season top 131 

Here is a scout's less enthusiastic take on Cumberland. For a reference, if he was the best FV 30 in the Orioles system, he'd still be somewhere around 70th in the Orioles system. Now reports like this are just looking at 3 games worth of live looks, but not a glowing endorsement by any means. 

[MDtransplant757]

I love the Manny trade. I like the britton trade.  I think we should hold out on grading the schoop and Gausman trades until a few years from now. We went younger in both of those trades; with Encarnacion looking like a future stud, Jean Carmona needing his swing fixed (which I think we can do), Phillips is at worst depth and at best one of those BP nuggets that DD seems to find, same with Zimmerman (Who is from Baltimore, BTW)

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

7 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I hope they are right about Cumberland and I'm missing something, but from what I've seen, that's kind of an insane ranking of him. 

Also, no Bannon on this list. FG doesn't love him for whatever reason. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

Something I failed to realize until recently is how good the Blue Jays farm system is. I assumed they would be in a similar position to us, having been competitive at similar times and not having done much selling (No prospects for Encarnacion, Bautista, Donaldson, Stroman, etc.). How do they have such a good system? I guess they've drafted and developed well while they were competitive? 

[Yardball85]

21 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

Machado deal was ok. Britton so-so. The Gausman deal was disappointing. The Schoop deal was a fleecing.

The Schoop deal really was not a fleecing Roy.  I don't understand why you keep saying that.  He was OPS'ing in the 500s I believe only one month ago.

[Smilin' Joe Fission]

I gave a B/B-, but I think it may be too early for a couple of the trades to really know.  I was pleased with the Manny and Britton trades, but thought we could have done better with Gausman and Schoop.  I was actually hoping those two would have been paired together for a bigger return.

But, and I'm sorry if this has been said already, I scanned through the posts and didn't read every one, the biggest part of the rebuild to me are the changes DD addressed after the Manny trade.  The rebuild needs to be from the top down and isn't just about the players.  The changes in organizational philosophies are crucial as we've seen how this team has been run for the last 20+ years.  If there really are widespread improvements to scouting and player development and more investment in analytics and the international market, then this rebuild will be successful.  If not, then it really doesn't matter who we got/get in these trades.

[mcneck]

Machado trade B

Britton Trade B+

:Brach Trade B

Gausman Trade D

Schoop Trade D

Switch to focus on international prospects A+++++++++++

Overall Solid B

 

 

 

[Dipper9]

I went with solid B because I absolutely love the direction of going for youth and International talent.  There is no way to go higher than that right now because we just don't know what the future holds, but I feel those that are grading this as C and/or D had too high expectations for the returns on these guys.  In today's day and age, teams are not going to send you their very best prospects to a 2 month rental, nor for players who have not fully developed into what was expected. 

There are tons of fans online that are just killing the Orioles for trading their favorites.  I guess I understand their point, but this isn't the 70's where you fall in love with a player and they stick around for a long time.  Its all about the name on the front of the jersey now, and the "favorites" had us sitting 40 games under .500 and were mostly all leaving at the end of the year anyway.  

The Schoop trade is the one I may have held off on, and perhaps even tried to extend him, but everything else I'm loving the direction.  Plus, in Duke's defense, if they truly are rebuilding with a young group and expect to lower the payroll, then it truly doesn't make any sense to extend Schoop either. 

[Luke-OH]

7 hours ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

Also, no Bannon on this list. FG doesn't love him for whatever reason. 

Which is funny because he has the same launch angle oriented type of swing that they drool over with Cumberland. Same late count approach. Sure he doesn’t play a defensive position as valuable as catcher but he’s a lock to stick at his positions and Cumberland not so much. He’s a better athlete as well.

[atomic]

Referred to the guys we got as up and down players.  

 

Scouts take on our new players Masn