An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[weams]

On 9/24/2018 at 10:57 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

We had that.  His name was Matt Weiters

Yep. Catching wears down the bat. Ask any of them. 

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, weams said:

Yep. Catching wears down the bat. Ask any of them. 

I’m sure it does, but everything’s relative.   A catcher who gives you a .750 OPS is as valuable at the plate as an outfielder who gives you an .850 OPS.   Every team has to have a catcher, and if you’ve got the best one, that’s a big advantage even if he’s not the best hitter on your team.   

[TonySoprano]

Quote

Witt grades out high in just about every aspect. Speed, defense, arm strength, bat. But as scouts break down his game, the inevitable criticism bubbles to the surface.

Two scouts who have seen Witt multiple times question whether he’ll be able to drive the ball consistently against top competition. Sure, he won a Home Run Derby. Sure, he’s homered in showcases, including the Under Armour All-American Game at Wrigley Field and twice in the States Play tournament at Globe Life Park.

But when the one scout saw him, the right-handed hitter wasn’t driving the ball, and that could raise a red flag for projection purposes, at least when it comes to considering him as the best overall draftee. No one questions that he’s among the top picks in 2019. But a hitter needs power potential to go No. 1, and if Witt doesn’t get considerably stronger, maybe that won’t come.

“The crazy thing about scouting is that everybody is going to bring someone down, they are going to find that negative, which is good,” Doug Witt said. “But when there is only a little one, it’s something you can work with. At the end of the day, I think this kid is gonna have power, potentially be a 20-home-run guy with a lot of stolen bases.”

Quote

But, if for some reason his stock nosedives, there is another option for Witt, one that is basically in his DNA: Playing baseball for the University of Oklahoma.

“Ever since I was little that’s where I wanted to go. And then whenever I committed there, dreams had become a reality right then. That place feels like home,” Witt said. “Norman, Oklahoma, is like my second home, because I’ve been going to all the football games and everything. It’s just an awesome place.”

Witt’s father starred there. His mother went there, too. Two of his three older sisters were Sooner cheerleaders.

 

[Greg Pappas]

Keith Law, from his chat two days ago:

squeeze bunt: Have you started any draft coverage for next year? Any thoughts on the class after the summer showcases? 
Keith Law: I won’t rank guys probably until February, but every single scout or exec I’ve talked to agrees that the class is very down. The college crop is especially poor.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Keith Law, from his chat two days ago:

 

Figures.

[Ruzious]

18 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Keith Law, from his chat two days ago:

 

The bigger point is that he won't even be rating players till February, and a LOT can and WILL happen between now and the draft.  It's almost irrelevant (dare I say foolish? Ok, I won't say it; I'll just think it) to rate the class as a whole now.    

[OriolesMagic83]

31 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Keith Law, from his chat two days ago:

 

No Tim Beckhams or Delmon Youngs in this draft?  I'm really disappointed.

[Bahama O's Fan]

If Bobby Witt Jr. ends up being all he is being hyped up to be, how far will he be from the majors? 2 years? 3 years? 4? I think this is the year we should be aiming for competition.

[sevastras]

7 hours ago, Papeete said:

With the Orioles track record of drafting over-hyped players who don't make it to the majors, and inferior high school pitchers, who cares who the Orioles draft!

Orioles have drafted pretty well as of late, if you are talking about a Bundy as inferior high school pitchers, you are flat out wrong. He was clearly the best high school pitcher on draft day. He had to have tj and that is the risk you take on an 18 yr old who can touch 100mph. He isn’t a bust and wasn’t inferior. 

Over-hyped players who don’t make the majors would be Rowell in 2006 and Hobgood in 2009. 

Over-hyped also has more to do with the fan base and media than anything else. I don’t recall the Os ever saying, “we just drafted the next Koufax or Mantle.”

[sevastras]

7 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

If Bobby Witt Jr. ends up being all he is being hyped up to be, how far will he be from the majors? 2 years? 3 years? 4? I think this is the year we should be aiming for competition.

If you ask Palmer, 19yrs old. Realistically, Witt jr would be 2021 at the very soonest but more likely 2022. That is if everything went perfect and lived up. Same with CJ Abrams(my top pick at the moment, think he has Correa level talent). 

This board is hyping Witt jr more than any scout or media currently is.   I would wait until the end of spring training to opening day before I got too excited about anyone. 

[Greg Pappas]

Updated the OP with Fangraph's updated Top Prospects list.

Quote

1  Adley Rutschman  C  21.3  6' 2"-216  S/R  Oregon State 

2  C.J. Abrams  SS  18.7  6' 2"-182  L/R  Blessed Trinity HS GA

3  Bryson Stott  SS  21.7  6' 3"-195  L/R  UNLV    

4  Corbin Carroll  CF  18.8  5' 10"-165  L/L  Lakeside HS WA  

5  Michael Busch  RF  21.6  5' 10"-200  R/R  North Carolina    

6  Andrew Vaughn  1B  21.2  5' 11"-210  R/R  Cal  

7  Riley Greene  RF  18.7  6' 2"-190  L/L  Hagerty HS FL   

8  Greg Jones  SS  21.3  5' 11"-170  S/R  UNC Wilmington    

9  Bobby Witt, Jr.  SS  19.0  6' 1"-185  R/R  Coleyville Heritage HS TX

10  Michael Toglia  RF  20.8  6' 4"-205  S/L  UCLA     

11  Shea Langeliers  C  21.6  6' 0"-190  R/R  Baylor   

12  Carter Stewart  RHP  19.6  6' 6"-200  R/R  Eastern Florida JC FL   

 

[Can_of_corn]

On 9/30/2018 at 2:28 AM, Papeete said:

Compared to the number of players that the Orioles draft each year (50+ draftees), how many Bundy's are on this team. High School Athletes in any sport aren't exactly surrounded by a high percentage of superior athletes, therefore high schoolers are the least tested athletes.

They are less tested than the 16 year old international players who don't even play games, just showcases?

[Can_of_corn]

On 9/29/2018 at 10:45 AM, Greg Pappas said:

Keith Law, from his chat two days ago:

squeeze bunt: Have you started any draft coverage for next year? Any thoughts on the class after the summer showcases? 
Keith Law: I won’t rank guys probably until February, but every single scout or exec I’ve talked to agrees that the class is very down. The college crop is especially poor.

Just because a draft lacks quality depth doesn't necessarily mean that 1-1 is going to be below average.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just because a draft lacks quality depth doesn't necessarily mean that 1-1 is going to be below average.

True, but one of the underrated advantages of being 1st is you also draft at the top of all the subsequent rounds.   That’s where having poor depth comes into play.

[Greg Pappas]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just because a draft lacks quality depth doesn't necessarily mean that 1-1 is going to be below average.

The early consensus is that the draft is shallow overall, but as you've said, he's not saying 1:1 won't be a high quality guy.