An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[Greg Pappas]

28 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think Rutschman is in a tier of his own at the moment.

But there is plenty of time for others to improve their profiles.

I agree... at this time he is. I'd love to see him have another great season and make it hard for anyone to take that #1 spot away from him.  Hopefully, multiple players raise their game and have us wondering who we'll take. 

[ORIOLE33]

11 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I agree... at this time he is. I'd love to see him have another great season and make it hard for anyone to take that #1 spot away from him.  Hopefully, multiple players raise their game and have us wondering who we'll take. 

In baseball, I really want that clear cut prospect. 

[Justinlstn]

I think Wieters soured me on the idea of taking a Catcher #1 Overall. Wieters wasn't a bad draft pick but the way he was hitting in college and in the minors I was like most expecting him to become this great hitting catcher like Mike Piazza. That is a hard position, that has a lot of duties. Sometimes their own hitting takes a back seat to whats important for the team. I think I would rather take Andrew Vaughn. I know we don't need a first baseman but the kid can hit

[Greg Pappas]

14 hours ago, ORIOLE33 said:

In baseball, I really want that clear cut prospect. 

I hear you. If Rutschman is the clear choice, that's great. From my point of view, it would also be great if one or two others stepped up and gave Elias some truly awesome options to choose from. But to your point, all we need is one guy that stands out.

[joelala]

I'm still really rooting for Riley Greene to be the pick. 

Was Elias in Houston when they surprised everyone a bit and took Correa number one even though many didn't have him projected there?

[wildbillhiccup]

Looking at the early Houston draft picks duriing Elias tenure, it doesn't look like he has a high school or college preference. 

2012 - Correa (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy)

2013 - Appel (Stanford)

2014 - Aiken (High School)

2015 - Bregman (LSU)

2016 - Whitley (High School)

2017 - Bukauskas (Univ. of NC, Chapel Hill)

2018 - Beer (Clemson

 

[MachoMachadoMan]

33 minutes ago, joelala said:

I'm still really rooting for Riley Greene to be the pick. 

Was Elias in Houston when they surprised everyone a bit and took Correa number one even though many didn't have him projected there?

I've seen both Riley Greene and Andrew Vaughn called out on here as alternatives to the obvious Rutchsman/Witt Jr debate, and I don't understand (at least based on the MLB Pipeline write ups.)

Both are all-bat prospects who at best profile as an average LF (Greene) or first baseman (Vaughn). Now that we're all-in on analytics super thinking, these don't seem to be the best value. 

The Ringer has a fascinating read today on the Seattle Mariners 15-year headache in drafting and player development that anyone on this board would find familiar. The Mariners have repeatedly valued low-floor, polished, near ML-ready players at the top of the draft (Hultzen, Ackley, Zunino) and have been left without much success.

[Jammer7]

42 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I hear you. If Rutschman is the clear choice, that's great. From my point of view, it would also be great if one or two others stepped up and gave Elias some truly awesome options to choose from. But to your point, all we need is one guy that stands out.

Along those lines...remember the Correa pick and how that all went down. He saved the Astros a considerable amount of money to spend elsewhere. I would not be surprised to see, for instance, an Abrams pick. And then come back and go over slot later. But that is only if they view Abrams, or whomever, to be equal of better than Rutschman or Witt.

It was interesting to hear Elias speak about Correa, and how they had him as the BPA anyway. 

I hope we do not pick Vaughn at 1:1. He can hit, yes, he looks like a hitter. But that is an extremely limited upside and profile to take at 1:1. I seriously doubt he’s the guy. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Along those lines...remember the Correa pick and how that all went down. He saved the Astros a considerable amount of money to spend elsewhere. I would not be surprised to see, for instance, an Abrams pick. And then come back and go over slot later. But that is only if they view Abrams, or whomever, to be equal of better than Rutschman or Witt.

It was interesting to hear Elias speak about Correa, and how they had him as the BPA anyway. 

I hope we do not pick Vaughn at 1:1. He can hit, yes, he looks like a hitter. But that is an extremely limited upside and profile to take at 1:1. I seriously doubt he’s the guy. 

I think it is pretty easy to get anyone picked 1-1 to go for an underslot offer.  What is their recourse?  Re-enter the draft and in all probability get picked lower next year?

[atomic]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is pretty easy to get anyone picked 1-1 to go for an underslot offer.  What is their recourse?  Re-enter the draft and in all probability get picked lower next year?

You would only get the second pick the following year.  But I guess if you get he first pick as well that doesn't  matter.  

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is pretty easy to get anyone picked 1-1 to go for an underslot offer.  What is their recourse?  Re-enter the draft and in all probability get picked lower next year?

Perhaps, but some have forgone signing and re-entered next year. Regardless, they will negotiate before they pick anyone. I would imagine a deal will be done before anyone is selected. They will all be “underslot” as not one has signed for the complete slot amount since the new rules took effect.

My point was, you look for the best package value you can get for your money. If there is a guy that stands alone at the top, then you take that guy. But several here are in play. 

I am really curious to see who he takes. How the analytical approach somehow determines top long term value. I am not an analytics guy, but I am ready to learn something new. 

[Frobby]

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2018/12/talking-about-the-no-1-draft-pick-at-the-winter-meetings.html

[weams]

Never draft a catcher first!

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Never draft a catcher first!

Never say never.    Joe Mauer was a great pick.    Buster Posey would have been a great one, way better than the four guys picked in front of him.    

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Never say never.    Joe Mauer was a great pick.    Buster Posey would have been a great one, way better than the four guys picked in front of him.    

I still think that if the Rays had picked Posey they'd have a ring by now.