Who will get a better contract this winter, Markakis or Jones?

[sportsfan8703]

I think they both end up with 3/27 deals. Markakis with Atlanta. Jones is a wildcard. He will still be viewed as a CF. He could be some teams leader they want to add. Like SD. 

[mdbdotcom]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think they both end up with 3/27 deals. Markakis with Atlanta. Jones is a wildcard. He will still be viewed as a CF. He could be some teams leader they want to add. Like SD. 

No team will view Jones as a CF. I don't even think Jones views himself as a CF anymore. As a free agent in the 'aging RF veteran presence who used to be CF' market, he'll be competing for a contract with Andrew McCutcheon, who is 14 months younger than Jones.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

No team will view Jones as a CF. I don't even think Jones views himself as a CF anymore. As a free agent in the 'aging RF veteran presence who used to be CF' market, he'll be competing for a contract with Andrew McCutcheon, who is 14 months younger than Jones.

I’d say McCutchen will do better than either Jones or Markakis.   

[mdbdotcom]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d say McCutchen will do better than either Jones or Markakis.   

And if this coming off-season is anything like the last one, all three could be unsigned when spring training begins.

[esmd]

I'll go with 2/18 for Adam, with maybe a 3rd year option at similar $$ with a buyout around $1M give or take.  Nick, I'll say a 1 year deal for around $9-10M.  Maybe he gets an option year for $10M with a buyout similar to the one Jones gets.  Slightly more $$ in 2019 for Nick, but Adam gets the multi-year deal.

[esmd]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think they both end up with 3/27 deals. Markakis with Atlanta. Jones is a wildcard. He will still be viewed as a CF. He could be some teams leader they want to add. Like SD. 

If either of them get offered that deal they should thank their lucky stars and sign it before the offering team comes to its senses.  I just don't see it after the offseason we saw this past winter with so many guys over 30 struggling to get deals.

[MarCakes21]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

Oh, that’s crazy talk.    His OPS is over .750.     He’d very easily get a deal between $5-10 mm.    

So did Seth Smith....as a RF, and we all know how that played out in Baltimore.  Even though we thought he'd help, most didn't want him by mid season and neither did the Mariners.

[Satyr3206]

I voted Markakis based on OBP. I do think the contracts will be close though.

[weams]

7 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

And if this coming off-season is anything like the last one, all three could be unsigned when spring training begins.

I would go against that wager. All have good histories and good press. All have good impact on their teams. All have some left in their tank. 

[weams]

This won't be an analytics call for any of them.

[JR Oriole]

I voted for Markakis because even though inherently I do think both players have been very valuable to their respective teams, Nick's value is so much more evident this year with him playing so well on a very young Braves team in contention for the division.  We have been so awful that it is hard to really say that anybody on our team has brought value this year.  This is just such a bad year for anybody still on the Orioles to show their worth.  I can see Atlanta wanting to keep Nick around for the next several years to continue helping this team get further.  

[Frobby]

Camden Depot’s BORAS model says Adam 2/$18.7 mm, Nick 2/$17.6 mm.

https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html?m=1

https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-right-field.html?m=1

 

[PaulFolk]

1 hour ago, Papeete said:

Nick will stay where he is if they want him, because no other team will want a non-power-hitter in RF. Regarding Analytics, nick played for a team that did not go downhill, and Nick never improved . . . Free Agent/Walk Year  Stats don't equate a big or long-term contract.

AJ playing on a team in which everyone produced low production, but his stats are not bad compared to the other Oriole players.  

AJ will get a better contract because he offers more versatility (a CF can play all OF positions; Nick can only play RF), more offense (HR, RBIs; Nick can hit but no speed). Nick's skills are generic. You are down by 2 runs and you have 2 men on base, who would you prefer at the plate in the 9th, AJ or Nick?

 

What does the bolded sentence mean?

I think Jones will get a better contract because he's two years younger, but I don't expect either one to draw huge interest.

[thezeroes]

5 hours ago, Papeete said:

You are down by 2 runs and you have 2 men on base, who would you prefer at the plate in the 9th, AJ or Nick?

Nick Markakis Innings 7 thru 9 280/354/408/762

Adam Jones Innings 7 thru 9 258/276/405/701

I would take Nick Markakis

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Papeete said:

You are down by 2 runs and you have 2 men on base, who would you prefer at the plate in the 9th, AJ or Nick?

 

29 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

Nick Markakis Innings 7 thru 9 280/354/408/762

Adam Jones Innings 7 thru 9 258/276/405/701

I would take Nick Markakis

Good answer.   But that aside, I don’t think players get judged solely by what they do when 2 runs down in the 9th with 2 on.    Nick’s overall on-base skills are better, and at ages 33 and 35, for most teams it’s a matter of who they think will retain their skill set and who will fall off the table.   I can’t say how teams will judge that, but I think Adam is the more unpredictable player.  He has more bounce back potential but he also has lost both speed and power over the last two seasons.