A crazy idea - Felix Hernandez

[BohKnowsBmore]

6 minutes ago, Barnaby Graves said:

Take all the guys who were good for 6 years or so, and then have been declining for 2 years.  In one pile stack up the ones that recovered to 80%+ of their former greatness the next year, and in the other pile the rest.  Which pile is bigger, and by how much?  And what is the discount needed to make that bet worth it?

The shelf life on a professional baseball player is pretty short.  Same with other sports, with varying degrees of exceptions depending on the game.  It also seems greatly affected by the degree of PED policing.

I love the creative thinking but with the number of innings on this guy, and the trending, and the general talent deficit of the team, it's a no for me.  We need to give young talent the chance to compete in the ultimate minimum-pressure environment: where the opposition is toughest and the need to perform is nil.  Cause we won't win more than 60 for some time, it seems.

I both agree and disagree.  I think our young arms need to force their way onto the big club rather than a position being given to them.  As I mentioned above, part of the issue with the "Calvary" era (IMHO of course), was that there was almost no resistance on their path to the majors.  They sort of knew they would make it.

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Most everyone in the media, national and local, and on this board seems to be in agreement that this team will not be very good next season.  They might be very very bad (I believe 2018 levels of bad to be unlikely, personally).  Simply put, this team is not going to compete in 2019.  The way the roster is structured going into next season needs to be thinking about how we can best position the team to be successful in 2020 and beyond.

That brings me to Felix Hernandez.  What does a former Cy Young who is pretty bad himself in 2018 have to do with the future of the Orioles? That's a great question.  First, a few statements that I believe to be fairly uncontroversial:

• The Orioles payroll going into 2019 looks to be significantly lower than going into 2018
• The Orioles have three definite starters at this point: Bundy, Cobb and Cashner
• The Mariners have been in the hunt for the second WC for quite some time and have not gone away
• The Mariners cannot be thrilled about owing Felix Hernandez $27MM for 2019
• The Orioles and Mariners have dealt with each other with some level of frequency in the past

What if the Orioles took on Felix Hernandez, with the Mariners eating somewhere between $7MM and $13.5MM of his final year?  Additionally, the Mariners would send a B-ish prospect that falls on the back-end of their organizational top-10.  A guy like Juan Querecuto (SS in rookie ball) or Wyatt Mills (RHP in high A).

This would achieve a few things:

• Continue to add more talent to the O's farm system for 2020 and beyond
• Make use of newly-found payroll space to add assets
• Give the team someone who at the very least will eat some innings
• If he is somehow able to rebound to something like an  4.0 - 4.5 ERA innings eater, he may have some value at the deadline in 2019
• The Mariners would have additional payroll flexibility to improve their team

Additionally, more veteran arms at the big club will make highly-regarded arms at the farm force their way up with play, rather than being handed a starting spot by default (something that hindered development of the "Calvary" IMO).

I realize that this type of deal is unlikely to happen, but I think it would be a creative way to leverage our position and add more talent to the team.

Now, go ahead and tell me why this is the worst idea ever.

No thank you. 

[maybenxtyr]

What would the Orioles be trading? Either way, even if it's just a salary dump I don't think it makes sense for Baltimore. 

If they are in the market for some fringy innings eaters next year just sign them. Maybe they'll get lucky and flip an overachiever at the deadline.

[weams]

2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Most everyone in the media, national and local, and on this board seems to be in agreement that this team will not be very good next season.  They might be very very bad (I believe 2018 levels of bad to be unlikely, personally).  Simply put, this team is not going to compete in 2019.  The way the roster is structured going into next season needs to be thinking about how we can best position the team to be successful in 2020 and beyond.

That brings me to Felix Hernandez.  What does a former Cy Young who is pretty bad himself in 2018 have to do with the future of the Orioles? That's a great question.  First, a few statements that I believe to be fairly uncontroversial:

• The Orioles payroll going into 2019 looks to be significantly lower than going into 2018
• The Orioles have three definite starters at this point: Bundy, Cobb and Cashner
• The Mariners have been in the hunt for the second WC for quite some time and have not gone away
• The Mariners cannot be thrilled about owing Felix Hernandez $27MM for 2019
• The Orioles and Mariners have dealt with each other with some level of frequency in the past

What if the Orioles took on Felix Hernandez, with the Mariners eating somewhere between $7MM and $13.5MM of his final year?  Additionally, the Mariners would send a B-ish prospect that falls on the back-end of their organizational top-10.  A guy like Juan Querecuto (SS in rookie ball) or Wyatt Mills (RHP in high A).

This would achieve a few things:

• Continue to add more talent to the O's farm system for 2020 and beyond
• Make use of newly-found payroll space to add assets
• Give the team someone who at the very least will eat some innings
• If he is somehow able to rebound to something like an  4.0 - 4.5 ERA innings eater, he may have some value at the deadline in 2019
• The Mariners would have additional payroll flexibility to improve their team

Additionally, more veteran arms at the big club will make highly-regarded arms at the farm force their way up with play, rather than being handed a starting spot by default (something that hindered development of the "Calvary" IMO).

I realize that this type of deal is unlikely to happen, but I think it would be a creative way to leverage our position and add more talent to the team.

Now, go ahead and tell me why this is the worst idea ever.

Crazy idea. Camden Yards. Felix is not pitching for 600k. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

Crazy idea. Camden Yards. Felix is not pitching for 600k. 

I think they draw a least a million next year, what with the Red Sox and Yankee fans.

[esmd]

Nah, not happenin.  The O's are trying to get payroll as low as possible next year, that's why they threw O'Day into the Gausman deal and sacrificed the prospect return.

[tntoriole]

I cannot possibly see this as any kind of reasonable idea for 2019.  Too much for too little gain.  Reduces flexibility for no good return.   Pass. 

[OriolesMagic83]

8 hours ago, Finisher said:

So we just traded away a borderline TOR arm and compromised his value by including a salary dump but now we're going to absorb an even worse salary dump to acquire some fringe prospect? Real teams don't give away prospects to salary dump, they just eat the contract and move on.

Gausman was never a borderline TOR arm.  He goes on these runs where he looks like he could turn into an ace.  Then a month later, he looks like a very replaceable #5.  I think his pitch repertoire is too limited to ever be an ace.

[weams]

 

[Camden_yardbird]

The Blue Jay's did this when they took on Francisco Liriano's contract from the pirates a few years ago.  Along with taking Liriano they took back mid level prospects Harold Ramirez, an outfielder who hit .320/.365./.471 for AA at age 23 and Reese McGuire, a catcher, and September call up this year who is likely a depth piece. 

I dont know if Felix is the guy you do this with but this type of maneuver should certainly be in the bag of tricks to acquire more talent going forward.

Oh, and Liriano also got them Teoscar Hernandez when he was traded.  Not bad for using empty payroll space.