Buck and Dan's home run strategy did not help the O's

[wildbillhiccup]

17 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Worthless because why?

Did he have a negative war here?

I wish I had Cashner's talent and able to play in the bigs.

So the benchmark for being a good pitcher is you? With the exception of his 2017 smoke and mirrors season Cashner has been awful in recent years. He had a 5+ era last year which is something I'm fairly confident a replacement level player could have achieved.  And in the era of the strikeout his strikeout rate is abysmal. It's probably best to save your angst for someone who's actually worth defending. 

 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So the benchmark for being a good pitcher is you? With the exception of his 2017 smoke and mirrors season Cashner has been awful in recent years. He had a 5+ era last year which is something I'm fairly confident a replacement level player could have achieved.  And in the era of the strikeout his strikeout rate is abysmal. It's probably best to save your angst for someone who's actually worth defending. 

 

You make no sense.

There is no replacement player able to go from a zero to a 5, just based on being on a good team.

I said he wasn't worthless, in spite of your outstanding judge of baseball talent.

Did he perform enough to earn his money this year, no, but then again, most of them  didn't.

Is it automatically assumed that he will suck next year, well next year hasnt even started yet, but, I see you have made that observation and judgement call.

 

[weams]

22 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

You make no sense.

There is no replacement player able to go from a zero to a 5, just based on being on a good team.

I said he wasn't worthless, in spite of your outstanding judge of baseball talent.

Did he perform enough to earn his money this year, no, but then again, most of them  didn't.

Is it automatically assumed that he will suck next year, well next year hasnt even started yet, but, I see you have made that observation and judgement call.

 

I assume that his contract incentives did not trigger? That's a real good thing right?

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

I assume that his contract incentives did not trigger? That's a real good thing right?

Well, save the team money, true.

I would have rather had his incentives kicked in, because the team played well, but such is life.

[wildbillhiccup]

22 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

You make no sense.

There is no replacement player able to go from a zero to a 5, just based on being on a good team.

I said he wasn't worthless, in spite of your outstanding judge of baseball talent.

Did he perform enough to earn his money this year, no, but then again, most of them  didn't.

Is it automatically assumed that he will suck next year, well next year hasnt even started yet, but, I see you have made that observation and judgement call.

 

I'm saying if the Oriole's starting pitching staff went on strike and they had to sign someone to replace Cashner I'm fairly confident that the replacement player could have performed just as well.  He was that bad and he's been that bad. And if you want to dig into the analytics of his performance over the last 5+ years everything points to this season being much closer to the "real" Cashner then 2017. Then again, the Orioles don't believe in analytics so they were probably wowed by his unsustainable 2017 3.40 era. Or at least Brady "Megamind" Anderson was. 

[wildbillhiccup]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

I assume that his contract incentives did not trigger? That's a real good thing right?

It is, but not quite as good as never signing him in the first place. 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm saying if the Oriole's starting pitching staff went on strike and they had to sign someone to replace Cashner I'm fairly confident that the replacement player could have performed just as well.  He was that bad and he's been that bad. And if you want to dig into the analytics of his performance over the last 5+ years everything points to this season being much closer to the "real" Cashner then 2017. Then again, the Orioles don't believe in analytics so they were probably wowed by his unsustainable 2017 3.40 era. Or at least Brady "Megamind" Anderson was. 

I hate to point out that MLBTR had him as one of the top 5 FA SP.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm saying if the Oriole's starting pitching staff went on strike and they had to sign someone to replace Cashner I'm fairly confident that the replacement player could have performed just as well.  He was that bad and he's been that bad. And if you want to dig into the analytics of his performance over the last 5+ years everything points to this season being much closer to the "real" Cashner then 2017. Then again, the Orioles don't believe in analytics so they were probably wowed by his unsustainable 2017 3.40 era. Or at least Brady "Megamind" Anderson was. 

..and if you want to be optimistic focus on the players who deserve it. You can cite Villar's improvement play after the trade, the potential of the youngsters, etc., but don't waste your breath defending Cashner. He doesn't deserve it. 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

I hate to point out that MLBTR had him as one of the top 5 FA SP.

...so that tells me it was a TERRIBLE pitching free agent class. So rather then sign a bad pitcher you make a trade for one. That's what other teams did. 

[OFFNY]

On 10/10/2018 at 12:32 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

In addition to 2018 being the first season ever with more Strikeouts than Hits in MLB history (1876 - Present), the last 3 seasons have seen the most Home Runs from the Lead-off Position than ever before ........

 

 

2016: lll 576 llll (The 3rd Most Ever in Major League History) 

2017: lll 642 llll (The Most Ever in Major League History)

2018: lll 638 llll (The 2nd Most Ever in Major League History)

 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24782725/an-october-blueprint-playoff-baseball-looks-2018

 

 

 

 

o

o

 

Some more food for thought in relation to home run reliance. 

It's only one team, and it's only in regard to one season (very small sample size), but I still found it somewhat interesting.

 

*****************************************************

 

The 2018 Yankees' record when they hit at least 1 home run in a game: llllllllll 90-41 lll (.687)

 

The 2018 Yankees' record when they did not hit any home runs in a game: llll 10-21 llll (.323)

 

 

SOURCE: lll Steve Somers

 

o

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

I hate to point out that MLBTR had him as one of the top 5 FA SP.

Who, Cashner?  That had to be either a poor evaluation or a historically poor free agent class.  Cashner's FIP the last four years has been 3.85 (in a big pitcher's park in SD), 4.84, 4.61, and 5.32.  His ERA+ over that period was 86, 76, 142 and 78.  The massive outlier there was the 142 for the Rangers in 2017.  Even with that 142 his ERA+ over the last four was 8% below average.  His 2016 season largely mirrored his 2018.

I don't know how you'd conclude a below average starter was one of five best pitchers on the free agent market, or even if he was why that should matter more than the fact he's not very good.

[Frobby]

On 10/10/2018 at 10:05 AM, wildcard said:

The O's won with a very good pen and good defense from 2012-2016.    The offense was middle of the road in spite of often leading the league in homers.    They would have been better with a blend of power and OBP but never achieved it.   The starters were good in 2016.  But the addition of Jimenez and Gallardo plus the fall of Tillman caught up to the team.

The fact the both Buck and Dan loved the homer in Camden Yard made them over emphasize power. That was made clear when other teams outscore them year after year.

We outscored our opponents all throughout 2012-16.

I’m not sure they overemphasized power.    They played the hand they were dealt.   They were a 200+ HR, low OBP team before Dan got here.   Could they have emphasized OBP guys a bit more?   Perhaps, but they’re not that easy to acquire.   Ask Dexter Fowler.

[wildcard]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We outscored our opponents all throughout 2012-16.

I’m not sure they overemphasized power.    They played the hand they were dealt.   They were a 200+ HR, low OBP team before Dan got here.   Could they have emphasized OBP guys a bit more?   Perhaps, but they’re not that easy to acquire.   Ask Dexter Fowler.

If Dan and Buck could not change the culture of homers emphasis over the 7 years the they were together here they were not trying very hard to move in the OBP  direction.  I heard them both on several occasions say that homers were the way to win because of Camden Yard  as a homer friendly park.   But year after year the offense was in the middle of the pack in runs scored in spite of leading or being near the top of the league in homers.   

Overall homers were a strategy that didn't work that well in scoring runs during the regular season and certainly not in the playoffs.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

If Dan and Buck could not change the culture of homers emphasis over the 7 years the they were together here they were not trying very hard to move in the OBP  direction.  I heard them both on several occasions say that homers were the way to win because of Camden Yard  as a homer friendly park.   But year after year the offense was in the middle of the pack in runs scored in spite of leading or being near the top of the league in homers.   

Overall homers were a strategy that didn't work that well in scoring runs during the regular season and certainly not in the playoffs.

I think them emphasizing ground ball pitchers for the same reason did them no favors.  O's never had the type of strikeout heavy pitchers that can really shut down an offense.  Furthermore as the defense crumbled the ground balls were less and less useful.