My approach to the 2019 season

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think Mancini can be about as good as Davis, whose defense has slipped the last two years.   He’ll do OK there given regular work.   He’ll certainly do less damage there than in LF.

The team wildcard proposes certainly won’t hit much, and I don’t see Hays making the team out of spring training.    Maybe he’s there by the all star break.   

I am not saying you are wrong about the team not hitting.  But their is potential in the lineup.

Villar  2016:  589 AB, 92 R,  19 HR, 62 Steals,  285/369/457/826

Mullins vs righties 2018:   281/337/464/800 at AAA, 317/373/509/882 at AA

Mancini 2017: 24 HR, 78 RBI,  293/338/488/826

Trumbo 2016: 613 AB, 94 R, 47 HR, 108 RBI,  850 OPS

Hays 2017:  81R,  32 HR, 95 RBI,  329/365/593/958 ar A+/AA      BA's  #21 prospect pre 2018

Nunez 2017:  473 AB, 32 HR, 78 RBI, .837 OPS at AAA

Stewart  2018 : 374 OBP, 836 OPS  at AAA before hamstring problems slowed him. 

Wynns 2017:  370  AB,   281/377/419/796 at AA;  297/328/516/844 vs righties for the O's in 2018

Iglesias 2018:  699 OPS

[wildbillhiccup]

41 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't see an Oriole SS in the system that will make the major in the next 3 years.   Grenier played low A ball last year and didn't hit or play defense well enough to deserve a promotion.   If the O's select Bobby Witt Jr he is probably three years away from the majors. Adam Hill was a Aberdeen.  That is probably three years away as well.

If you want to say two years foe Iglesias then I am fine with that as long as it gets him to sign with the O's.

They'd be better off trading GIvens for a SS if they're that concerned about the position going into the season. 

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

I like the upgrade at SS with Inglesias but have doubts that O's will non tender Beckham for him. When is the deadline for that and when will we have an exec to make that decision.

Non tender date: Nov 30th

IMO Non tendering Beckham is an easy decision.  Graham can do that.   The hard part is signing Iglesias.

[El Gordo]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Non tender date: Nov 30th

IMO Non tendering Beckham is an easy decision.  Graham can do that.   The hard part is signing Iglesias.

Can Graham decide to sign Inglesias? Why non tender Beckham and then have no SS.  Villar should play 2B for best trade value. No other options will improve defense.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Can Graham decide to sign Inglesias? Why non tender Beckham and then have no SS.  Villar should play 2B for best trade value. No other options will improve defense.

I think the O's need a new GM to sign Iglesias.  

[Pheasants]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's need a new GM to sign Iglesias.  

Maybe they should wait so it fits the new GM's plans, but Graham has whatever power the Angelos boys give him.  Apparently he would have been allowed to sign the Cubans.

[Ruzious]

29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not saying you are wrong about the team not hitting.  But their is potential in the lineup.

Villar  2016:  589 AB, 92 R,  19 HR, 62 Steals,  285/369/457/826

Mullins vs righties 2018:   281/337/464/800 at AAA, 317/373/509/882 at AA

Mancini 2017: 24 HR, 78 RBI,  293/338/488/826

Trumbo 2016: 613 AB, 94 R, 47 HR, 108 RBI,  850 OPS

Hays 2017:  81R,  32 HR, 95 RBI,  329/365/593/958 ar A+/AA      BA's  #21 prospect pre 2018

Nunez 2017:  473 AB, 32 HR, 78 RBI, .837 OPS at AAA

Stewart  2018 : 374 OBP, 836 OPS  at AAA before hamstring problems slowed him. 

Wynns 2017:  370  AB,   281/377/419/796 at AA;  297/328/516/844 vs righties for the O's in 2018

Iglesias 2018:  699 OPS

So all we need is for the veterans to have career years, and the youngsters to put up their best minor league numbers in the majors, and we'd be decent. 

Actually, I'm ok with the Iglesias idea as long as the deal is no more than 2 years.  Everything falls apart with bad defense and young pitching, and he keeps Villar at his better position.  Also, if you're gioing with Nunez at 3B, you need a good steady SS.  Nunez showed some defensive improvement, but I think you have to regard him as a below average defensive 3Bman, and we're below average at 1B, as well.  Actually, the thing to do might be to use Mountcastle at 1B when he's ready.          

[weams]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think Mancini can be about as good as Davis

I don't think this is close to right. No matter how much shrinkage. 

[El Gordo]

39 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's need a new GM to sign Iglesias.  

I think Inglesias will be signed by another team before O's get new GM.

[spiritof66]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

While we wait for a new exec,  here is my approach tot he 2019 season.

1.  Put the best defensive team on the field that the O's can.   It helps the pitching and gives the Orioles that have a chance  to be the next wave of a playoff team an opportunity to play.

2.  I don't see the O's spending on FA except for one.   A shortstop on modest cost.

 

2B Villar - Speed at the top on the lineup and a base stealer.  I like him better at 2B than SS.  But he can backup SS.

CF Mullins - Probably a platoon player before the season is over but he gets a chance during ST to prove he can hit lefties.  Better range in CF than last year.  McKenna is a year away from challenge him for CF job.

1B Mancini - He needs to be out of left field for the  the most part.  Could be part on the next Os playoff team.

DH Trumbo -  His walk year.  He has the incentive to have a good season.   Let him play and hope he brings back a player at the deadline.

RF Hays -  improves the defense in RF and allows him to learn at the major league level.   He is probably part of the O's next playoff team

3B Nunez -Improved defensively during last year as the season went on.  Showed a bat in the minors that could play in the majors.

LF Stewart - Better than Mancini defensively in left.   Should get a chance in left until Diaz is ready.

C Wynns - Good defensive catcher with a great arm.  Showed the ability to hit for OBP in the minors

SS Jose Iglesias -  Signed 3/18.  Defensive leader of the infield.   I would aggressively sign him.  Not waiting till late in the off season. Beckham non tendered.

Bench

Davis -  At 33 he will not be part of the O's next playoff team.  Can't trade him so he becomes a defense replacement and plays when the can give other players a rest.  His mission from he beginning of the ST is to be able to place a single into left field whenever the defense shifts on him and to  Improve his OBP.

Rickard - Utility OF.  Platoons with Mullins in CF if Mullins proves he needs the help.  Regular defensive replacement in left.

Wilkerson - Backs up 2B/3B.  Plays when Villar shifts to SS to give Iglesias  a  break at SS.

Caleb Joseph -   1.7m is cheap of a backup catcher until Cervenka or Sisco prove ready to take over that spot.

 

Starters

Cobb -  With a good defensive team behind  he should be able to duplicate his 12-10, 3.66 ERA of 2017.  Tradable when a great offer happens.

Bundy - Should be able to duplicate is 13-9, 4.24 ERA of 2017 with a good defense behind him.

Cashner - Should be able to duplicate is 11-11 record of 2017 maybe not 3.40 ERA but a good defense would help him.  Tradable at the deadline.

Hess -  3.81 ERA in the 2nd half of 2018 earns him a spot in the rotation to begin ST.  Up to him to hold it

5th starter competition in ST - Means, Ramirez, Rogers, and Akin

Pen

Givens - It would take a great trade offer to get him.  Available but the bar is high.

Bleier -  Tradable at the deadline for a good offer until then I love to watch this guy.

Fry -   Part of the Os' next playoff team.

Castro - Part of the O's next playoff team.

Gilmartin -  O's need two guys in the pen that can give them a good 4 innings.  He looked good in that role in 2018

Yacabonis -  Not a good consistent starter but a fits the long relief role well.

Araujo  - For 17 days then open to Kline, Phillips, Scott, Carroll, or Meisinger.  Whoever earns it in ST.

 I like this team to be much better than 2018 because the focus would be better defense which helps everything else.   It give the young guys a chance to play while putting experience guys like Villar, Mancini and Trumbo in the best spots to help the team,  Iglesias defense in key for me at shortstop.

What do you think?  Something to talk about until we know who is running the ship. 

 

I agree with almost all of this.

One overall point. I would present my own goal for the start of the season not as putting "the best defensive team" we can out there, but as trying to keep the defense strong while getting a long look at everyone who's ready to be tested on the major-league level. I think that the readiness question needs to be resolved in ST for Hays, and I have my doubts about NUnez but agree we should start the season with him at 3B. 

I want to see Stewart and Mancini in LF and 1B every day not because you couldn't find better defenders, but because I want to see what kind of defenders they are, as well as how they'll produce on offense when they're put in positions where they should be comfortable. I think Mancini will be a decent first baseman if he works on it during the off-season and in ST, without having to worry he'll screw up in the outfield. We'll see. 

I agree that the Orioles should sign a SS from outside the organization. Maybe Iglesias is the right guy, though I'd hope to find someone younger who can give us a few years if we need it. (Jose will be 29 in January.) But I don't want free agent acquisitions decided by Brian Graham or Brady Anderson. Those are calls that should be made by someone who is hired to make these decisions and will have to live with them. Should they ever get hired, our incoming executives might want to acquire some young talent from other teams' dumpsters, including a Rule 5 guy or two who might take up roster spots. They might want to fill the SS hole that way.

I think you're a little (or a lot) too optimistic about this team's performance. I'd be surprised if it didn't lose 100 games. But who cares?

 

[wildcard]

40 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

So all we need is for the veterans to have career years, and the youngsters to put up their best minor league numbers in the majors, and we'd be decent. 

Actually, I'm ok with the Iglesias idea as long as the deal is no more than 2 years.  Everything falls apart with bad defense and young pitching, and he keeps Villar at his better position.  Also, if you're gioing with Nunez at 3B, you need a good steady SS.  Nunez showed some defensive improvement, but I think you have to regard him as a below average defensive 3Bman, and we're below average at 1B, as well.  Actually, the thing to do might be to use Mountcastle at 1B when he's ready.          

The only position that I think Mountcastle would  be acceptable  defensively is DH.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The only position that I think Mountcastle would  be acceptable  defensively is DH.

I'm sure a former shortstop couldn't be Mancini's equal in the field.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure a former shortstop couldn't be Mancini's equal in the field.

Maybe in time but he has not played 1B in the minors and the majors in not the place to learn to play 1B.

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

I think Inglesias will be signed by another team before O's get new GM.

He is not in MLBTR's top 50 free agents.  He is not a great hitter and he has had some injury problems.  He is pretty much a defense first player.  I think it will be a while before he signs.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Maybe in time but he has not played 1B in the minors and the majors in not the place to learn to play 1B.

But the majors was a fine place for Mancini to learn how to play the outfield?