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Will Elias trade this off season or at the trade deadline

wildcard

By wildcard
in Orioles Talk

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Dark Helmet Hangout Grand Counsel

Dark Helmet

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1 hour ago, scOtt said:

That's what I took from that article you posted. EVERY deal is looking towards the future of the organization. If it puts us a pitcher short in the rotation or pen this year, so be it. The focus is building and developing the minors so that we can fill ML spots later from our minor league system. As the MiL system improves we have more and more spots filled at the ML level.

They can't focus on building and developing the minors with Cobb, Cashner, and Bundy on the major league team? Because they are not going to add any meaningful talent trading them now. If the Orioles want to build up their farm , it's going to be through the international market. 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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5 hours ago, WarehouseChatter said:

It would be great to get an under the radar prospect like the Cubs did when they traded Cashner for Rizzo.  Don’t get me wrong, Rizzo was a top 100 guy, but there was a lot of criticism about him.  The Cubs saw something and then essentially built around him.  Who is our guy to build around?  Would be nice to have someone prior to the draft.  That way, the draft will just add a piece around the pillar.

Can we package Bundy, Cobb and Villar for a first piece?

Rizzo was a Theo and  Hoyer guy from way back. Also, Rizzo was a cancer survivor. Multiple health issues when younger. 

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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7 hours ago, WarehouseChatter said:

It would be great to get an under the radar prospect like the Cubs did when they traded Cashner for Rizzo.  Don’t get me wrong, Rizzo was a top 100 guy, but there was a lot of criticism about him.  The Cubs saw something and then essentially built around him.  Who is our guy to build around?  Would be nice to have someone prior to the draft.  That way, the draft will just add a piece around the pillar.

Can we package Bundy, Cobb and Villar for a first piece?

Build around the best the O's have.   Hays and Diaz have been top 100 prospects.  DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez are the O's top pitching prospects. 

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ThomasTomasz Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

ThomasTomasz

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12 hours ago, wildcard said:

I found it interesting that when Jeff Luhnow took over the Astros in the fall of 2011 he did not trade away most of his veteran assets.  In fact he traded for Lowrie to be his SS.  It wasn't until the trade deadline that Luhnow made several trades to low his payroll.  

What will Elias do?   Trumbo and Cashner probably can't be moved until the trade deadline if then without eating salary.  Cobb and Bleier could be traded as soon as they show they are healthy.   Givens did not have a great season in 2018 but his value may still be quite high because of this stuff.  When and whether Bundy is traded is a good question.  He didn't have a good season but he did pitch very well until late June when he injured himself on the base paths.  Villar  could probably be traded this off season and get some value in return. Mancini is still cheap but his age means he probably gets traded before the O's are contenders again.

Elias may want to see how some of these players do with more analytic data.   Maybe they can improve and increase their value.

Elias' opening statement talked about trusting in the process.  The process with the Astros was to trade veterans for young players to improve the number and qualify of prospects in the farm system.   I would think this will happen at some point with the O's.   The question is when will that happen?

Great thoughts.  

Right now, our best asset is Mychal Givens.  Still has team control, and once he settled into the closers role, he excelled.  I actually see him being traded in the off-season, because we can sign a Cody Allen or AJ Ramos type former closer, promise them the role and hope they return to form for a mid-season trade.  

Follow that to Cashner and Cobb.  Teams always need veterans to eat innings.  That is why I think Cashner starts on the roster, then is moved around the deadline.  Cobb had a fantastic second half until the late season blister issues.   I do not think Cobb is moveable right now without eating a lot of money, but if he continues his upward trend, he could be someone moved at the deadline.  Alternately, you need a veteran to lead this staff.  He could be someone we hold onto for a year and a half or two.

We will likely have to eat some salary no matter when we trade Trumbo if we want a decent asset back.  Let's hope he rebounds so much that it isn't the case, but remember he is likely limited to AL-only teams.  Villar is another good asset, but his control is dwlndling.  Given the value of defense up the middle, I can see us sticking with him for a time.  Blier is a good trade chip if he comes back healthy, but some of his advanced numbers left a lot to be desired despite the low ERA.  Dylan Bundy's value is at it's lowest ever, so we are likely going to see what a new pitching coach and new numbers can do for him.  Mancini had a sophomore slump and could either be a trade asset down the road, or part of the future. 

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ThomasTomasz Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

ThomasTomasz

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11 hours ago, scOtt said:

That's what I took from that article you posted. EVERY deal is looking towards the future of the organization. If it puts us a pitcher short in the rotation or pen this year, so be it. The focus is building and developing the minors so that we can fill ML spots later from our minor league system. As the MiL system improves we have more and more spots filled at the ML level.

Did you see the absolute disaster being short starting pitchers made September?  Even for the worst team in baseball, it was a debacle.  The Orioles needed starters who were stretched out, and had already sent them all home.  

The Orioles still have to play 162 games.  That's a minimum of 1,458 innings without extras being factored in.  You can't waive the white flag before or during the game, even if you want to tank.  You have to play the games out, and you need a couple veterans leading the staff as an example to the young guys, who can eat innings even if they are getting run out.  

Right now, that's Cobb and Cashner.  Bundy's value is at it's lowest ever, but with a new coaching staff and new analytics approach, you don't know what you have right now.  That leaves two starting pitcher spots up for grabs.  Cashner is likely dealt around the trade deadline, which would open up another spot.  If I had to guess, Rogers gets one of those spots, and Ortiz gets another.  Kremer, if he continues his upward trajectory, gets the early nod to take over when Cashner is dealt . 

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