Will the Orioles be better in 2019 than 2018?

[Bradysburns]

21 hours ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

I don't know about you guys but I believe the Orioles will be a better baseball team in 2019 compared to 2018. I honestly don't know how they could be any worse. If the Orioles play better defense and get good pitching out of Cobb, Bundy and Cashner, I definitely feel like they will be an improved team.

I believe we'll be better defensively. I think we'll start seeing improvement there first, which will have benefits for the pitching staff. Frankly, I'm okay losing close, well-played games. I'm not okay with watching lame defense and pitching, even if homers are flying. So I'm happy to see defense-first pickups in the Rule 5, etc. I'm looking forward to watching it on the field. 

[Going Underground]

Last year was a historically bad season.The Orioles lost 62 games on the road.The most losses on the road ever  in the AL was 64 by  the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics. Not sure if the Orioles rank second worst ever in the AL.

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Last year was a historically bad season.The Orioles lost 62 games on the road.The most losses on the road ever  in the AL was 64 by  the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics. Not sure if the Orioles rank second worst ever in the AL.

As time moves on and leagues mature the distance between the best and the worst teams shrinks.  In 1871 a team played .750 ball, and another played .160 ball.  Pre-WWII it was common, almost annually, for teams to lose 100-105 games in a 154-game schedule.  Even with no expansion for 50+ years.  If you go by decade the standard deviation of team wins in MLB almost always declines.

The '16 A's played in an environment where they had no affiliated minor league teams, had a scouting staff and budget about on par with today's Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, and an ownership group that had tens of thousands of dollars to plow into player acquisition and development.  In that context the O's might have been worse.

[Ruzious]

And face it, the O's don't have an Amos Strunk in CF or a professional hitter like Wally Schang.   

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

And face it, the O's don't have an Amos Strunk in CF or a professional hitter like Wally Schang.   

They really don't!  Wally Schang had a better career than any Orioles catcher, ever, and it's not really close.  With the right friends he'd be in Cooperstown.  Way better than Ray Schalk, and a peer.

And Strunk might have been a kind of Adam Jones of the teens.  CFer, 112 OPS.  Jones 108.

[interloper]

There's no reason to believe that they will be worse because statistically it's just unlikely. That said, they could definitely be close to as bad. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

There's no reason to believe that they will be worse because statistically it's just unlikely. That said, they could definitely be close to as bad. 

Plexiglass principal.  Teams that decline in one year have a strong tendency to improve the next.  The 2018 O's declined by all the wins.

Plus, 47 wins is close to replacement level.  To win 55 or 60 I think they'd just have to collect a bunch of plus gloves who'd OPS .575.  There's like six of those in my local VFW hall at this very moment drinking Schaefer Lite.

[TGO]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Plexiglass principal.  Teams that decline in one year have a strong tendency to improve the next.  The 2018 O's declined by all the wins.

Plus, 47 wins is close to replacement level.  To win 55 or 60 I think they'd just have to collect a bunch of plus gloves who'd OPS .575.  There's like six of those in my local VFW hall at this very moment drinking Schaefer Lite.

Literally just catch and throw the ball better...we were somewhere between the worst and third worst defense in the major leagues according to DRS and UZR.

[LookitsPuck]

Chris Davis is a year older as is Mark Trumbo.

The relief corp has gotten weaker.

Our highest WAR player in 2018 was Manny Machado with 2.9. 

Gausman #2 with 2.2

Richard Bleier was #3 with 1.6

Gausman and Machado are, of course, gone.

That said? 115 losses would be incredibly difficult to outdo. Worst Baltimore Orioles team since 1988 (they lost 107). 

So I think they'll be better. But not markedly such. The O's did manage to lose nearly 100 games in back to back years in 2009 (98 losses) and 2010 (96 losses). 

So while I don't think they'll be 115 losses bad....I think it's certainly possible that they're 100+ games bad.

Elias was w/ the Astros from 2011-2018. He was part of 3 consecutive seasons of over 100 losses: 2011 (106), 2012 (107), 2013 (111). It wouldn't shock me if we see some similar turbulence while Elias tries to right this disaster of a mess that he inherited from Duquette.

[Moose Milligan]

15 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Chris Davis is a year older as is Mark Trumbo.

The relief corp has gotten weaker.

Our highest WAR player in 2018 was Manny Machado with 2.9. 

Gausman #2 with 2.2

Richard Bleier was #3 with 1.6

Gausman and Machado are, of course, gone.

That said? 117 losses would be incredibly difficult to outdo. Worst Baltimore Orioles team since 1988 (they lost 107). 

So I think they'll be better. But not markedly such. The O's did manage to lose nearly 100 games in back to back years in 2009 (98 losses) and 2010 (96 losses). 

So while I don't think they'll be 117 losses bad....I think it's certainly possible that they're 100+ games bad.

Elias was w/ the Astros from 2011-2018. He was part of 3 consecutive seasons of over 100 losses: 2011 (106), 2012 (107), 2013 (111). It wouldn't shock me if we see some similar turbulence while Elias tries to right this disaster of a mess that he inherited from Duquette.

Good breakdown.  This is about where I am.  

We've still got a lot of offseason to go.  I just don't see how the pitching is going to get much better to make a big difference.  This team should be able to catch the ball though, so that'll help.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Good breakdown.  This is about where I am.  

We've still got a lot of offseason to go.  I just don't see how the pitching is going to get much better to make a big difference.  This team should be able to catch the ball though, so that'll help.

Very good chance we remove our quote-unquote best pitcher in Cobb, too. I agree we're in for 100 losses, just not 117. 

[DrungoHazewood]

45 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Chris Davis is a year older as is Mark Trumbo.

The relief corp has gotten weaker.

Our highest WAR player in 2018 was Manny Machado with 2.9. 

Gausman #2 with 2.2

Richard Bleier was #3 with 1.6

Gausman and Machado are, of course, gone.

That said? 117 losses would be incredibly difficult to outdo. Worst Baltimore Orioles team since 1988 (they lost 107). 

So I think they'll be better. But not markedly such. The O's did manage to lose nearly 100 games in back to back years in 2009 (98 losses) and 2010 (96 losses). 

So while I don't think they'll be 117 losses bad....I think it's certainly possible that they're 100+ games bad.

Elias was w/ the Astros from 2011-2018. He was part of 3 consecutive seasons of over 100 losses: 2011 (106), 2012 (107), 2013 (111). It wouldn't shock me if we see some similar turbulence while Elias tries to right this disaster of a mess that he inherited from Duquette.

It was 115.  Not that it matters.

If you want to feel good just remember that the O's were only the 61st-worst W/L% of all time (if you include all the sketchy MLB teams going back to 1871).  15th-worst of the 20th Century.  Better % than the '39 Browns, if you want to include them in franchise history, which no one with any decency does.

[DrungoHazewood]

42 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

This team should be able to catch the ball though, so that'll help.

One of the biggest differences between '88 and '89 was replacing Lynn-Gerhart-Sheets with Bradley-Devereaux-Finley-Anderson-Orsulak.  A mediocre LFer and two DHs, replaced by three CFers, good RFer, and a good LFer.

[Number5]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It was 115.  Not that it matters.

If you want to feel good just remember that the O's were only the 61st-worst W/L% of all time (if you include all the sketchy MLB teams going back to 1871).  15th-worst of the 20th Century.  Better % than the '39 Browns, if you want to include them in franchise history, which no one with any decency does.

It is the 21st century.  Not that it matters.  

[LookitsPuck]

12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It was 115.  Not that it matters.

If you want to feel good just remember that the O's were only the 61st-worst W/L% of all time (if you include all the sketchy MLB teams going back to 1871).  15th-worst of the 20th Century.  Better % than the '39 Browns, if you want to include them in franchise history, which no one with any decency does.

Thanks! Updated.