Will the Orioles be better in 2019 than 2018?

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

With Buck gone I don't see them repeating finishing eight games under their pythag.

Most of the under Pythag was before the deadline (.299 vs. .354 Pythag).   Post deadline they basically played to their run differential (.272 vs. .282 Pythag).   

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Most of the under Pythag was before the deadline (.299 vs. .354 Pythag).   Post deadline they basically played to their run differential (.272 vs. .282 Pythag).   

Makes sense since they obviously lost talent.

[weams]

They don't have Manny, They don't have Kevin Gausman, They don't have Zach Britton or Jon Schoop. No Adam Jones and No Brad Brach. 

These are all very good baseball players.

They will spend 60 to 70 million on this year's payroll with no real minor league graduations onto the team of substance. 

Will they lose more game? Probably not. Will they be a better team? Definitely not. 

[weams]

Don't get me wrong. Tim Beckham and Caleb are major leaguers that are replaced by minore leaguers. So there is that as well.

So they could lose more. I expect they will find ways to win 60+ games.

[Aristotelian]

54 minutes ago, bobmc said:

It will be interesting to see how Hyde manages after those years with Maddon.  He has no allegiance to any of the players so Davis won't be penciled in every day if he is not producing.  I wonder if he will have a Zobrist type versatile guy he plays all over.  I'm not sure we have such a player yet, unless it's Rios.  But agree that we will be what we are, nothing more, nothing less as he will get the most out of everyone (and we will unfortunately suck).  But it may be more fun watching it all unfold.

I could see him going with a bullpen "opener" strategy if the analytics say that it is superior. I don't know that our bullpen is especially well constructed for it, but our starters certainly are.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I could see him going with a bullpen "opener" strategy if the analytics say that it is superior. I don't know that our bullpen is especially well constructed for it, but our starters certainly are.

I'm hoping for all relievers.

[Moose Milligan]

I think they'll be better, but not by much.  Defense should be better and that should mean some more in the win column.

I don't see how they can score significantly more runs than last year.  Davis is still here.  No more Machado.  No more Jones...even though he's on the downside of his career I don't see how they get much more output than what he was able to provide last year.   There's still most of the offseason to go but I don't expect any significant upgrades in free agency or trades.  

We'll have a whole year of Cobb (until we trade him) which is nice, but we still have Cashner.  IMO, Bundy is what he is...looks like a #1 some days, looks like a #5 others.  Hess, whatever.  Bullpen, whatever, it'll be blown out and overworked by July.  I don't like any of our minor league arms until they prove something.  

I think we're staring at another 100 loss season.  If we don't lose 100, it'll be pretty impressive.  I think they end up around 55-58 wins.  

But the ML club doesn't matter.  What matters most in 2019 is what Elias does with the #1 pick, international scouting and signing, development of players in the system and whatever analytics Sig is putting in place.

[Moose Milligan]

The *only* thing that could happen is if they call up a bunch of kids and they play out of their minds all summer because they don't know how bad they're supposed to be.  Like a 1989 all over again.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

The *only* thing that could happen is if they call up a bunch of kids and they play out of their minds all summer because they don't know how bad they're supposed to be.  Like a 1989 all over again.  

They might win 60 games!

[DrungoHazewood]

The only team to have lost 110+ games in consecutive seasons was the 1962-63 Mets*.  In '63 they improved by 10 games. So if the O's lose more than 115 in 2019 that'll be an historic first.

* The 1898 St. Louis (NL) Browns went 39-111.  They were in one of those syndicate ownership deals with the Cleveland Spiders.  The '98 Spiders went 81-68.  The owners then transferred all of the best players in the group to St. Louis, believing that was a larger market that could make more cash.  This left Cleveland stripped of almost all talent and famously the '99 team went 20-134.  So a fair number of the same guys lost 110+ in consecutive years.

[DrungoHazewood]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

They might win 60 games!

The '88-89 Orioles improved by 32.5 games, one of the better totals of all time.  If the '18-19 Orioles do the same thing they'll still be under .500.

[mdbdotcom]

13 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

The *only* thing that could happen is if they call up a bunch of kids and they play out of their minds all summer because they don't know how bad they're supposed to be.  Like a 1989 all over again.  

1989 rWAR leaders:

• Ripken 6.7
• Tettleton 4.4
• Milligan 3.7
• Olson 3.3
• Milacki 3.0
• Bradley 2.9
• Ballard 2.5
• Devereaux 2.3
• Williamson 2.3
• Orsulak 2.0

Obviously,  the current team is not going to be nearly as good.

I'm guessing 40-50 wins, and maybe OPACY records for least home runs hit and most home runs allowed. There's just no reason for any pitcher to throw fat pitches to the 2019 Orioles. 

[ShaneDawg85]

Depends on what your definition of better is.  Will they lose 115 games again?  It'd be pretty hard to do that again, terrible team or not.  But, are they going to be demonstrably better?  Highly unlikely barring some significant talent brought in and/or guys already here getting back to previous levels of performance.  If this team somehow doesn't lose 100 again, I'd say Brandon Hyde should be manager of the year.

[weams]

15 hours ago, weams said:

They don't have Manny, They don't have Kevin Gausman, They don't have Zach Britton or Jon Schoop. No Adam Jones and No Brad Brach. 

 

You could make a case that a team signing all of these players this offseason would be a frontrunner for the championship. 

[DrungoHazewood]

14 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I'm guessing 40-50 wins, and maybe OPACY records for least home runs hit and most home runs allowed. There's just no reason for any pitcher to throw fat pitches to the 2019 Orioles. 

The O's record for fewest homers hit at OPACY is 58, in 2001.  That was the year they moved the plate back and slightly rotated the field.  2nd-worst was 72 in 2010.  The 2018 Orioles hit 100 homers at home.  To me it seems unlikely that they hit fewer than 58 at home.  The last time they failed to hit 58 homers in a full schedule was 1975.

Most allowed is 127 in 2017.  That appears to be more in reach.

(Aside: The 1988 Orioles only allowed 77 homers at home, and had a 3.83 home ERA en route to losing 107 games.  On the road they went 20-61 with a 5.34.  Worst road ERA in the majors by more than half a run.)