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Luke’s Draft Musings

Luke-OH

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Spl51 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Spl51

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On 2/20/2019 at 6:46 PM, Luke-OH said:

Seth Johnson of Campbell is a name to be familiar with, he is a converted SS, RHP. He's only pitched a handful of innings in his college career (like 10) and made his D1 debut today vs the #11 ranked ECU Pirates. 

He looked a little jittery on the mound and had some mechanical inconsistencies from time to time, but he sat 94-95mph with one of the best deliveries in college baseball and a curveball that was an easy plus when he commanded it. Also threw some armspeed changeups for strikes. This was in 36 degree weather. 4IP, 1H, 2BB, 5K, 0R

This is a lofty comp, but we could be looking at the next DeGrom. He isn't as free and easy as Degrom was, but his mechanics are more polished than DeGrom's were early in his transition to pitching. Obviously that's the absolute ceiling, but this kid is really good. It's a first round arm for me right now. 

 

Yeah, Johnson is ahead of the pack for me so far his delivery makes me salivate, but I'm sure he's way gone by the time we pick next.

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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Some college SS I think are interesting. Maybe some of these guys are in the mix at 42, but these are more 3rd round or comp B targets.

Tyler Fitzgerald - with a big strong frame and plus speed, Fitzgerald is like the generic brand to Will Holland/Logan Davidson group of toolsy college SS with questionable hit tools.

Ryan Kreidler - tall lanky frame, probably destined for 3B as he fills out more. Good defender at multiple positions. Short easy stroke despite the long levers. Patient but lacks present strength, but should grow into some power.

Brady McConnell - There are a few issues here. The swing mechanics are terrible, he doesn’t put himself in a good position to hit, and has pitch selection issues. It’s all very fixable though and the bat speed is easy plus and he has the arm/hands/frame to stick at SS. Risk/reward here.

Ike Freeman - has the body for 2B, the arm for 3B, Freeman doesn’t have standout tools but can hit, take a walk, and has good pop for a MIF.

 

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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Some more college draft names I've seen (video) and like. 

John Rave - small school centerfielder with plus speed and feel to hit, handsy swing, not a ton of power, but like Austin Hays and Nico Hoerner, I think it's an easy tweak of creating more separation to unlock some.

Tommy Henry - A lefty with a low 90s FB but great feel to pitch, bulldog mentality. Keeps hitters honest with what appears to be a quality cut FB (it could be him just manipulating his FB, but it looks like a separate pitch). CH is his best pitch, also throws a slider, all for strikes.

Ethan Small - I was high on Small last year and that was when he was only t93. The lefty is another season removed from TJS and he's t96 already this year. He knows how to pitch and move the fastball around to get swings, it plays above it's velocity which ranges 88-96 thanks to a deceptive changeup. His slurvy breaking ball has also improved with the increased arm speed. I think he's a first rounder. 

Nick Lodolo - Another LHP,  more on the radar than the other guys here big prospect coming out of HS, finally putting it all together. Holds 92-95, but the fastball isn't a swing and miss pitch. He recently added a slider (by that I mean between starts) and it's a great pitch. Also has an avg CB and CH. 

Alec Marsh - big physical RHP with a clean delivery, heavy fastball 88-94, generates GBs but can also miss some bats, 4 pitch mix, nothing really a weapon but like a Michael Baumann with a touch less stuff but much better mechanics

Darius Vines - undersized RHP with a live arm 92-96, good CB, under the radar name

Tanner Morris - UVA SS, bat speed and good hands, some tools, could be a guy that could click with a swing change. 

Austin Wilhite - slick defensive SS, the bat might be light but a potential fast moving utility guy, later round target

Cameron Cannon - has played all around the infield, probably a 2B long term. Strong, stocky build with good hands at the plate.

Hunter Bishop - huge raw power, crazy bat speed, plus runner, M’s prospect Braden Bishop’s brother. There is swing and miss and the arm is questionable, but this is a first rounder. Three 110+ mph HRs so far. 

Riley Ornido- 

 

 

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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Also, guys I've seen (video) and am lower on than the crowd.

Drew Parrish - physically mature body, not much velocity, yes command and pitchability, but not much ceiling.

Graeme Stinson - velocity down as a starter, a great relief prospect, but just a relief prospect IMO

Logan Davidson - I don't think he hits

Branden Shewmake - just a weird profile, tall, lanky but not wide shouldered, hit first prospect, but long levers, too many questions for me to put him in the first round

Matt Canterino - I don't think the stuff is great, wary of RHP who rely on deception

Brooks Lee - ugly swing, poor balance at the plate

Luca Dalatri - all the UNC starters are enigmas because of the way they pitch, heavy use of secondaries and plenty of sub-maximal FBs. Dalatri has only t90 while the others have much better stuff Tyler Baum t96 with a 55 CB and Austin Bergner has t92 with a + CB and 55 change. Dalatri is all feel, command, and deception which makes for a good college pitcher, but not a great prospect. 

 

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Luke-OH

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1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

Wow... Bobby Witt Jr is doing fairly decent ;)  :

 

 

 

Yeah, it’s about as good as you can  possibly perform, but it’s not super useful for evaluation because he could be facing 80mph with a 30 breaking ball. I haven’t seen game video or read any updated scouting report yet. It’s fun though.

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Gotta love the 21 BB to 8 Ks with a .841 SLG and .600 OBP through his first 14 games and 65 PAs. Seems to be cementing his 1-1 selection.

Here is a great piece on Adley, his baseball coach Dad and his grandfather who was a college football and baseball coaching legend in Oregon.  

This kid is special.  I want him on our next winner! 

 

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Here is a great piece on Adley, his baseball coach Dad and his grandfather who was a college football and baseball coaching legend in Oregon.  

This kid is special.  I want him on our next winner! 

 

i trust Elias to make the right pick, but this guy sure does seem like the right pick right now! It's still March though.

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Greg Pappas Hangout Grand Counsel

Greg Pappas

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On 3/10/2019 at 10:49 PM, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, it’s about as good as you can  possibly perform, but it’s not super useful for evaluation because he could be facing 80mph with a 30 breaking ball. I haven’t seen game video or read any updated scouting report yet. It’s fun though.

Yeah, Rutschman is the clear-cut #1 prospect, barring something unforeseen, while Witt will be an interesting prospect to follow, where ever he goes. 
 

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