Luke’s Draft Musings

[Luke-OH]

On 5/10/2019 at 6:15 AM, Luke-OH said:

Under the Radar Favorite #5

Ben Anderson - RHP - 6'4" 200lb - Binghamton

Anderson is the twin brother of the highly touted Braves prospect Ian Anderson. Ben was a catcher and didn't pitch at all until his Junior year of HS. Despite sitting in the mid-80s with his fastball, he was drafted by the Blue Jays in the late rounds, but decided to go to school. He's been a solid performer all three years in college but really started missing bats this year. His fastball now sits in the low 90s and he features a similar high 3/4 release to his more famous brother. He adds a curveball and a changeup, the curveball flashing above average. While he doesn't have quite the fluidity or confidence of his brothers delivery, the mechanics are sound and the frame is prototypical. The near vertical release will help the fastball/curve combo play up and I think there is a chance for more velocity. His skill-set fits well with the Orioles new pitching philosophy and would offer good 5th-8th round value in my opinion. 

Just in time, Baseball America included him in their Top 500 update today. 

[RVAOsFan]

@Luke-OH I am an ECU fan so this is a total homer pick but what do you think of Alec Burleson? I have watched a lot of ECU baseball this year and to me he just seems like a guy you want in your organization. Have you seen any games? Any thoughts?

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

@Luke-OH I am an ECU fan so this is a total homer pick but what do you think of Alec Burleson? I have watched a lot of ECU baseball this year and to me he just seems like a guy you want in your organization. Have you seen any games? Any thoughts?

I’ve seen him, he’s a 2020 eligible guy, so I haven’t been paying close attention yet. Strikes me as a performance over tools type. He’s a better prospect with the bat IMO, it’s contact over power now but he has the strength to learn to drive the ball more. 

[weams]

On 5/9/2019 at 1:13 PM, Spl51 said:

I truly do wonder if there's any chance that it could be seen by teams. I think it's pretty likely that some scouts browse forums looking for little nuggets.

Luke gets calls from Fangraphs.

[waroriole]

On 5/10/2019 at 6:15 AM, Luke-OH said:

Under the Radar Favorite #5

Ben Anderson - RHP - 6'4" 200lb - Binghamton

Anderson is the twin brother of the highly touted Braves prospect Ian Anderson. Ben was a catcher and didn't pitch at all until his Junior year of HS. Despite sitting in the mid-80s with his fastball, he was drafted by the Blue Jays in the late rounds, but decided to go to school. He's been a solid performer all three years in college but really started missing bats this year. His fastball now sits in the low 90s and he features a similar high 3/4 release to his more famous brother. He adds a curveball and a changeup, the curveball flashing above average. While he doesn't have quite the fluidity or confidence of his brothers delivery, the mechanics are sound and the frame is prototypical. The near vertical release will help the fastball/curve combo play up and I think there is a chance for more velocity. His skill-set fits well with the Orioles new pitching philosophy and would offer good 5th-8th round value in my opinion. 

Would he be the kind of guy we could get for significantly underslot in those rounds? Considering he just cracked the Top500

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Would he be the kind of guy we could get for significantly underslot in those rounds? Considering he just cracked the Top500

No, he'd be a slot guy in those rounds IMO. 

[Luke-OH]

On 3/13/2019 at 5:51 AM, Luke-OH said:

So each of the last two years, I've had some under the radar draft favorites. Guys who aren't high profile that catch my eye for one reason or another. 

These aren't top draft prospects, although one of my favorites last year (Nick Sandlin) raised his stock enough to get popped in the second round. Rylan Bannon is the most successful of my 2017 under the radar favorites.

I'm going to make it more difficult this year, for college prospects, they can't be on D1baseball's top 350 draft prospects list. So yeah, these are deep dives, if they go undrafted it's a loss for me, if these guys get drafted it's a draw, if they go in the top 10 rounds it's a win. 

Under the Radar Favorite #1

Nate Fassnacht - SS - 5'11" 180lb - George Washington

Fassnacht is a guy who had some buzz coming out of his freshman season. That summer he played on the Cape as one of the few rising Sophomore's in the prestigious summer league. There he impressed scouts even when he wasn't playing with 55/60 raw power displays in batting practice and the actions to possibly stick at SS. Then he proceeded to struggle his Soph season in a weak conference and lose any buzz he once had. He didn't play summer ball last year and was a barely mentioned afterthought coming into his junior season. He's come out hot in 2019 showing a patient approach and compact stroke with average bat speed and natural loft. He has the ceiling defensively of being an average glove there, nothing wow, but good footwork and enough arm. Will work at 2B or 3B if he has to move off the position. It's hard to evaluate the bat with a high level of confidence because he doesn't face the best competition with GW having a weak schedule. That said, through 74 PA, he has a 4% K rate (3 strikeouts). K rate is the first stat to become meaningful for hitters (begins to stabilize at 60 PA). He has walked 18x and has 14 XBH and hit a number of balls to the wall in games I watched for 2B and 3B. He's also shown above average speed, I recorded one flashy 4.30 turn on a double. 

 

On 3/19/2019 at 6:40 PM, Luke-OH said:

Under the Radar Favorite #2

Dante Biasi - LHP - 6'0" 205lb - Penn State

Biasi was drafted out of HS by the Cubs even though he had TJS his senior year of HS. He didn't sign, took a medical redshirt, and eased his way back into action in 2018. The statistics weren't great. Now, a year further removed from TJS, the stuff has improved significantly. The lefthander throws from a controlled 3/4 delivery. He's a physical pitcher, with a strongly built upper and lower half. The fastball has been up to 96 this spring and sits in the low 90s. He pairs the pitch with a curveball and a changeup. The changeup is a weapon against RHB, he consistently is able to spot it armside and have it tail and tumble out of the zone for whiffs. The CB flashes above average and is effective against LHB. He's like a generic brand Erik Miller (a 1st/2nd round arm) with a touch less FB/CB (but a better changeup) in a smaller frame. 

 

On 4/1/2019 at 5:22 AM, Luke-OH said:

Under the Radar Favorite #3

Zak Kent - RHP - 6'3" 195lb - VMI

Kent is way under the radar as the Sunday starter for VMI. He's got a good pitcher's body with room for a little more strength, but isn't super athletic or possessing elite arm speed. His abilities are a bit more subtle and he's still growing into them. He has absolutely elite spin on his 4S fastball, when he stays on top of it, it has major jump up in the zone and plays above it's 89-92mph velocity. When he overpronates the pitch, it has nasty armside life. He also has great feel for a slider, curveball, and change. On a good day he can throw them all for strikes and they all miss bats. He's still learning how to use his stuff and can groove a pitch from time to time, but has made steady improvement since being a low 80s HS pitcher. I could see him going in the 8th-12th round range and I think there is some real upside if you can get a couple ticks more velocity out of him, which seems doable considering his frame and mechanics. 

 

On 5/9/2019 at 3:28 AM, Luke-OH said:

Nate Fassnacht and Dante Biasi have now been added to the Fangraphs draft board. My first two under the radar guys are now on the radar.

Under the Radar Favorite #4

Nick Snyder - LHP - 6'7" 220lb - West Virginia

Snyder is a mid-week starter for the Mountaineers, he transfered to WVU after a year at Mercer CC. He only pitched 4 innings for WVU in 2018, but played summer ball in the Atlantic collegiate league and had some success, striking out 14.9 per 9 but also walking over 6 per 9. He's really come into his own in his junior season as he's arguably been the most dominant mid-week starter in the country. At 6'7", Snyder gets down the mound well and uses his lower half effectively, finishing with some recoil and intensity on a firm lead leg. He has a short awkward arm action that lacks fluidity, but adds deception. The fastball ranged from 87-93mph sitting 88-91 in my look with reports that he's been up to 94-95 this spring. He throws from a 3/4 slot and the fastball jumps on hitters and plays above it's velocity, with draftable RH hitters swinging late on 87-88 at times. He tends to cut the fastball when trying to locate gloveside, those pitches are generally lower end of his velocity band. He adds a low 80s changeup, a slider, and a curveball. The breaking balls are pretty similar in movement and velocity and blended together at times. None of the offspeed stuff is particularly good right now, but I see a guy who is a few tweaks away from being a really good prospect. There is more velocity there if he can get better scapular loading and improved shoulder ROM. There is pretty significant risk here due to lack of a track record, unorthodox mechanics, and tight shoulder/pecs so he's not a early round guy. But for a guy who isn't ranked anywhere, he's a easy top 10 round guy for me, 6'7" lefties with his body control and arm speed are rare. 

 

On 5/10/2019 at 6:15 AM, Luke-OH said:

Under the Radar Favorite #5

Ben Anderson - RHP - 6'4" 200lb - Binghamton

Anderson is the twin brother of the highly touted Braves prospect Ian Anderson. Ben was a catcher and didn't pitch at all until his Junior year of HS. Despite sitting in the mid-80s with his fastball, he was drafted by the Blue Jays in the late rounds, but decided to go to school. He's been a solid performer all three years in college but really started missing bats this year. His fastball now sits in the low 90s and he features a similar high 3/4 release to his more famous brother. He adds a curveball and a changeup, the curveball flashing above average. While he doesn't have quite the fluidity or confidence of his brothers delivery, the mechanics are sound and the frame is prototypical. The near vertical release will help the fastball/curve combo play up and I think there is a chance for more velocity. His skill-set fits well with the Orioles new pitching philosophy and would offer good 5th-8th round value in my opinion. 

Wanted to group these guys all together in one place.

5 guys who weren't ranked by Fangraphs, Baseball America or D1 baseball's top 350 college players at the time of my writing these spotlights. I said that I'd consider it a win for me if these players were drafted in the top 10 rounds, a draw if they are drafted after the 10th, and a lose if undrafted.

Dante Biasi - 169th overall, 6th round

Nate Fassnacht - 240th overall, 8th round

Zac Kent - 265th overall, 9th round

So three wins, the other two will either be draws or losses, but I'm pretty happy with this. 

 

 

[Luke-OH]

On 3/13/2019 at 8:53 PM, Luke-OH said:

One thing I've been thinking about is how the Orioles are going to go about their draft prep with a fairly limited amateur scouting department having trimmed some of the guys from the previous regime without adding much.  I don't think this will affect their ability to make strong early round selections, but it's surely going to affect the number of later round guys they get multiple looks at. So I think we will see a very college heavy draft, especially in the later rounds. 

So maybe one premium HS guy in the top 4 picks, perhaps overslot and maybe a signable HS flyer or two in the later rounds, but that's probably going to be it (not counting the unsignable follow type picks in the 35-40 round range). At least that's my prediction. They will have a ton of data on the college guys, exit velocity, spin rate, sprint speed, etc from trackman. Plus I imagine they have a well developed statistical model for DI prospects. So in person scouting won't be needed in the same volume. Also, I'd expect some DII and DIII guys past the 10th round.

 

So I think I was pretty spot on calling this draft.

[Go_Os]

I haven't had time to look through every pick.  Who are the possible overslot guys?

[TheOtherRipken]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

So I think I was pretty spot on calling this draft.

Dude....do you have magical powers?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, TheOtherRipken said:

Dude....do you have magical powers?

I'd say he put in the work.