Austin Hays

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The problem with Hays is those pesky 34 days of service from 2017.     He’d need to stay in the minors for about 7 weeks to save a full year of service.    

My brain says send him down.    Every part of my heart says we need something to be excited about and that he’s earned a spot on this roster.    So, I’m torn.   

I thought the same thing but I’m going with the flow here. Just hope he is a good enough player to extend down the road. 

I really can’t see how they keep him this deep into the spring and not have him being the starter. Maybe he is someone Elias thinks the majors are better for his ongoing development than the minors.   

[Luke-OH]

Mullins has had a great spring, he has a .242 ISO, is walking more than he strikes out, and has looked more relaxed in CF.

The only reason his OPS looks below average is a .185 BABIP which takes over a season worth of data to reflect true talent. The things that are more predictive are pointing up and the things that are much less predictive are pointing down. 

[eddie83]

10 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Well no wonder Santander doesn't run better.

Well if he hangs around Trumbo you know they won’t be eating any pies.

Perhaps a healthy diet will speed him up.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Well if he hangs around Trumbo you know they won’t be eating any pies.

Perhaps a healthy diet will speed him up.  

And hopefully Trumbo isn’t hanging around with the Orioles much longer.  

[Just Regular]

A DOB review:

Old Young Guys: Mullins 10.1.1994 / Hays 7.5.1995

Young Young Guys: Diaz 10.7.1996 / Mountcastle 2.18.1997 (McKenna 2.14.1997 - nearly a birthday twin)

With Mullins I was easily of the mindset no 7th year games are needed because he'll be too old by then.

Diaz/Mountcastle I hope they make it tough but I feel like go win the AAA championship - I think May 1, 2020 debuts and keeping control of their 2026 is probably good business.  I hope to be relevant again in 2022 and see whether they have 1100 or 1250 PA's of experience by that Opening Day as a distinction without a difference.

Hays is in-between - a little closer to Mullins's age than Diaz/Mountcastle.  I don't think I have a dog in the fight.

 

 

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

And hopefully Trumbo isn’t hanging around with the Orioles much longer.  

I get the impression that Trumbo himself knows there is a good chance this is his last year in MLB. 

He seems content with being a DH. He has always come across as a pretty bright guy. The type of player he is, has little value anymore.

I hope he embraces the mentor role. That may be the most important thing he accomplishes all year. 

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You seem to be really down on Mullins. 

This guy has been an overachiever to get this far. He has some tools to work with. Certainly possible he doesn’t pan out but also possible he can be a strong side platoon CF.  That has value. 

I am still evaluating whether his pluses are more than his minuses.    He earns his way with his legs.   He can't hit lefties and he can't throw well.   He has a little power but that is not his strong suit.   It should be his OBP but he had a 319 OBP vs righties in the majors last year and a 250 OBP so far this spring.  

IMO Hays is outplaying him for the starting centerfield job this spring.  I don't see how he gets used as a defensive replacement even in left because he can't throw well enough to not let in runs.

Things could change in the final two weeks of the spring but right now I am in favor of 24 year old Mullins going back to AAA and learning to hit lefties.   

[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

 

IMO Hays is outplaying him for the starting centerfield job this spring.  I don't see how he gets used as a defensive replacement even in left because he can't throw well enough to not let in runs.

Reasonable minds can differ, but I've always kind of leaned on the run/arm OF equation as LF = needs to run but not throw (not as many first-to-thirds, more RH batters putting plays in your zone), RF = needs to throw but not run, CF = needs both.  I think I picked it up from a Historical Abstract.  FWIW by that measure, Mullins's is a LF profile, assuming he isn't the best CF on the team.

[eddie83]

Just now, wildcard said:

I am still evaluating whether his pluses are more than his minuses.    He earns his way with his legs.   He can't hit lefties and he can't throw well.   He has a little power but that is not his strong suit.   It should be his OBP but he had a 319 OBP vs righties in the majors last year and a 250 OBP so far this spring.  

IMO Hays is outplaying him for the starting centerfield job this spring.  I don't see how he gets used as a defensive replacement even in left because he can't throw well enough to not let in runs.

Things could change in the final two weeks of the season but right now I am in favor of 24 year old Mullins to go back to AAA and learn to hit lefties.   

I think it would be foolish for the Orioles to play Hays over Mullins in CF. If Cedric doesn’t hit LHP -and I don’t think he will- and eventually Hays plays CF vs LHP that’s fine. 

His biggest ceiling is a capable starting CF vs RHP. His arm is what it is. Al Bumbry didn’t have an arm either and he lasted a long time. 

I have no idea why the Orioles would not take advantage of the regular season and let this play out. One of the advantages of seasons like this are giving real opportunities.  

On a side note I can accept a poor arm if that player chases down balls in the OF. We saw last year how much that hurt.  

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am still evaluating whether his pluses are more than his minuses.    He earns his way with his legs.   He can't hit lefties and he can't throw well.   He has a little power but that is not his strong suit.   It should be his OBP but he had a 319 OBP vs righties in the majors last year and a 250 OBP so far this spring.  

IMO Hays is outplaying him for the starting centerfield job this spring.  I don't see how he gets used as a defensive replacement even in left because he can't throw well enough to not let in runs.

Things could change in the final two weeks of the season but right now I am in favor of 24 year old Mullins to go back to AAA and learn to hit lefties.   

I don’t think Mullins is going to learn to hit lefties in AAA any more than in the majors.    

I think he’s in camp until the end.    We’ll see how the next 2 weeks go and make a decision based on more information.  

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Reasonable minds can differ, but I've always kind of leaned on the run/arm OF equation as LF = needs to run but not throw (not as many first-to-thirds, more RH batters putting plays in your zone), RF = needs to throw but not run, CF = needs both.  I think I picked it up from a Historical Abstract.  FWIW by that measure, Mullins's is a LF profile, assuming he isn't the best CF on the team.

Did you see today's game?  Mullins playing left gets so little respect from the other team that they don't even slow down going around third to score on a single to relatively shallow left field.  Mancini gets more respect for his arm than that.  Rickard has a better arm than that.   Hays and Diaz (who will probably be back in a month or two) both have plus arms.   Heck Santander has a better arm than that.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

Did you see today's game?  Mullins playing left gets so little respect from other team that they don't even slow down going around third to score on a single to relatively shallow left field.  Mancini gets more respect for his arm than that.  Rickard has a better arm than that.   Hays and Diaz (who will probably be back in a month or two) both have plus arms.   Heck Santander has a better arm than that.

And all this time folks were freaking out over Stewart's arm.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I think it would be foolish for the Orioles to play Hays over Mullins in CF. If Cedric doesn’t hit LHP -and I don’t think he will- and eventually Hays plays CF vs LHP that’s fine. 

His biggest ceiling is a capable starting CF vs RHP. His arm is what it is. Al Bumbry didn’t have an arm either and he lasted a long time. 

I have no idea why the Orioles would not take advantage of the regular season and let this play out. One of the advantages of seasons like this are giving real opportunities.  

On a side note I can accept a poor arm if that player chases down balls in the OF. We saw last year how much that hurt.  

In Brumbry's first full season he had a 398 OPS and a 898 OPS.   Managers make room for those kind of players.  I have not seen that from Mullins yet.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

15 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I get the impression that Trumbo himself knows there is a good chance this is his last year in MLB. 

He seems content with being a DH. He has always come across as a pretty bright guy. The type of player he is, has little value anymore.

I hope he embraces the mentor role. That may be the most important thing he accomplishes all year. 

And 25 home runs by the all star break wouldn’t hurt either. Then maybe the Orioles can trade him in July. 

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And all this time folks were freaking out over Stewart's arm.

Elias/Hyde must not have been impressed.