Official 2019 Wins Prediction

[interloper]

[UpstateNYfan]

This team certainly seems capable of being worse than last year's team. However, I felt and have stated that last year's historically bad team basically showed up and went through the motions from all, including ownership, DD, BS to the last man on the roster. The Good Bye to Manny Tour with Manny at SS and Beckham at 3rd?? With that in mind I am going to go with an optimistic 63 wins, that's a little less than 3 more wins/month. Hopefully, the defense works out and the O's keep the game at 27 outs for the opponent more often than not. We will need some surprises to get to 63 W's, but l am hoping on a bit of enthusiasm will get us there.

[wildbillhiccup]

14 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles won 47 games again, or even just 40. But comparing this year's team to last year's is, for me, a little tricky. Bad as they were, and despite the impressive number of offensive and defensive categories in which the Orioles were last or nearly last in the league (I collected them in several posts), the team's Pythagorean record was 55-107. That suggests to me that some bad luck, poor clutch performances and/or bad decision-making contributed to a season of .290 baseball. 

Apart from eliminating or reducing some of those factors, I'd like to think there's a basis for being optimistic about the Orioles matching or doing a little better than that in 2019 .

You mention four departed players, but the only one of the four who made a significant positive contribution to the Orioles last season was Manny. Schoop and Gausman weren't very productive. Zach threw only 16 innings for the O's (some of them un-Zach like), and an elite closer is of limited value to a crappy team, especially with Buck Showalter at the helm. 

There are areas in which this year's team might be better, especially if it survives the first month or so of the season. Some examples. I'm hoping, reasonably I think, for addition by the subtraction and replacement of Davis (eventually), Jones, Joseph and Beckham, some improvement from Cobb and Cashner, better results from the continuing trial-and-error with the back of the rotation, bigger contributions from Fry and Bleier (as long as he's around), and a better performance by Givens. (I'm also hoping, unreasonably I guess, for some help from Bundy.) Maybe a couple of the young guys will break out, especially later in the year. (The Hays injury puts a good-sized dent in that hope, but let's see what happens there.)

The point of my earlier post was that, even if the Orioles are as bad or worse than last year, I think the intra-division competition is not as strong, so that they have a realistic chance to do better against Toronto (which I see as a mediocre-to-bad team this year) and TB (which I think will be weaker than last year). And I think it will be hard to do as badly as 3-16 against the Red Sox (who I  believe also will be weaker than last year, but that's almost irrelevant).

I'm not betting on any over/unders this year -- I learned my lesson the last two years. But that's the guess I'm starting the season with.

I see your point, but I also think it's important to compare the traded players with the players who are replacing them. I agree on Britton, but I do think Machado, Schoop, and Gausman will be pretty significant loses.  After a few weeks of watching our SPs I think we will longing for the unsexy mediocrity of Gausman. I do expect the team to be more "scrappy" this season, but I really think the pitching is going to be atrocious. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I see your point, but I also think it's important to compare the traded players with the players who are replacing them. I agree on Britton, but I do think Machado, Schoop, and Gausman will be pretty significant loses.  After a few weeks of watching our SPs I think we will longing for the unsexy mediocrity of Gausman. I do expect the team to be more "scrappy" this season, but I really think the pitching is going to be atrocious. 

I agree the pitching could be scary bad.   Of course, it was already atrocious, so you wonder how much worse it really could be.    

[BamaOsFan]

61-101

Overall starting pitching can't get much worse than last season. Davis improves slightly. Overall defense better. We bring up some guys mid-season that will make a difference.

[Philip]

18 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Just for comparison the Astros suffered through three 100+ losing seasons and it took them five seasons to get over .500. Are we ahead or behind them in terms of pace? At this point it's tough to say. I think the Astros had at least two soon to be stars on their roster in 2011 (Altuve and JD Martinez) , but their minor league system was in shambles (ranked 26th overall in terms of depth). I feel like we're probably behind them in the star department, but a bit ahead in terms of minor league talent. Another fun fact is that Jonathan Villar was in the Astros minor league system in 2011. 

Houston Astros

2015 - 86 - 76

2014 - 70 - 92

2013 - 51 - 111

2012 - 55 - 107

2011 - 56 - 106

The Houston/Baltimore comparison subject is worth a major posting of its own. I thought about that a lot. I’m pushing 60 and I don’t know how much longer I’m going to live. I don’t really want to suffer through three years of appalling baseball Just to get back to where we were in 2013.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Philip

[backwardsk]

I took the under on the 59.5 line in Charlestown last week.

[wildbillhiccup]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I agree the pitching could be scary bad.   Of course, it was already atrocious, so you wonder how much worse it really could be.    

Well we're minus Gausman and I honestly don't think we've seen the worst of Cashner. I wouldn't be surprised if they toy with releasing him by mid-season. 

[DrungoHazewood]

58 wins.  Because plexiglass principle.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, BamaOsFan said:

61-101

Overall starting pitching can't get much worse than last season. Davis improves slightly. Overall defense better. We bring up some guys mid-season that will make a difference.

I mean it can. Cobb's hurt (again) and we're minus Gausman this season. And if you're banking on a rebound from Cashner then I've got a wonderful bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to sell ya. 

[scOtt]

63.

[BamaOsFan]

25 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I mean it can. Cobb's hurt (again) and we're minus Gausman this season. And if you're banking on a rebound from Cashner then I've got a wonderful bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to sell ya. 

Just believe there will be some improvement among the group (starters). Bundy needs to be more consistent and stay out of the middle of the plate. Karns "could" be a nice addition (build up his innings). Another year for Hess should help him develop further. Cobb should be solid and Cashner will eat up innings.

[orioles119]

They will narrowly miss 100 losses.

64-98

[Can_of_corn]

I just don't see how anyone can look at the current roster and see a 15+ game improvement over last season.

[LookinUp]

I can't find 40 wins, but voted 51-55 because it's really hard to be worse than that.

Elias could be a direct descendant of Einstein, but all the data in the world can't overcome a lack of talent and a desire to trade whatever talent ends up performing as soon as possible. 

There will be plenty to watch, but mostly on the minors forum.