Mancini Trade Package

[LookinUp]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

That is a crazy return to expect. That was a organizations top 10 prospect plus recent HS picks from the 2nd and 4th rounds.

Yeah, maybe so. I'm not sure how high everyone was on Hall and Rom at this point last year though. That's what I was trying to identify, underappreciated talent.

[weams]

3 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Mancini has literally been the worst defensive outfielder in the majors over the last two years. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=1000&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2018-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=25,d&page=3_30

Also, Mancini's been great offensively for 1/2 season. Long term, will he be the .900+ OPS guy he's shown this season or the guy who had a sub .300 OBP and .715 OPS last season? I don't think the Orioles should entertain extending him until the conclusion of next season at the earliest. 

He is quite horrible there, defensive metrics aside,  JUMP has him up there but just watch him. He's kinda awful. 

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Yeah, maybe so. I'm not sure how high everyone was on Hall and Rom at this point last year though. That's what I was trying to identify, underappreciated talent.

Rom wasn't even tradeable last season. He had just been drafted.

[wildbillhiccup]

I mean if I had to compare Trey Mancini to an Oriole of yesteryear it would probably be Joe Orsulak. Did Joe Orsulak ever have any trade value? 

[wildbillhiccup]

37 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Would Trey Mancini make Tampa Bay a better team?

No. They have plenty of hitters in their pipeline who project as being just as good or better. If they want Trey Mancini clone they just need to call Nate Lowe back up again (and Lowe has a higher upside).

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I mean if I had to compare Trey Mancini to an Oriole of yesteryear it would probably be Joe Orsulak. Did Joe Orsulak ever have any trade value? 

That’s a really weird comparison.   Mancini is a much better hitter than Orsulak, and not as good a fielder.  3.9 rWAR in 2.5 seasons for Mancini, 5.4 in 14 seasons for Orsulak.   

[LookinUp]

21 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Rom wasn't even tradeable last season. He had just been drafted.

You're either missing my point or something else. I'm saying that to trade Mancini, Elias will need to find under the radar talent. If you don't like Rom, how about Hanifee? The name doesn't matter, it's the type of target that Elias would have to have in mind because teams aren't going to trade their versions of Hall, Mountcastle, etc., for Mancini. 

[Philip]

50 minutes ago, atomic said:

Of players drafted in the second round of the 2012 draft only 3 players have more WAR than Chance. The 3 guys drafted right after him look like failures.  

That is more a statement on their flaws than on his virtues. If you think his current defense is acceptable, and his current offense is acceptable, that’s fine, and I will respectfully and fervently disagree.

I don’t care about the guys drafted around him, I am far more interested in how he is doing. In the “irrelevant comparisons department”, it can be pointed out that Sisco’s current career fWAR is 0.0(after ~250 PAs) Mancini was drafted 249th, and his career WAR after the same number of at bats was probably higher. 

[Frobby]

Just now, Philip said:

That is more a statement on their flaws than on his virtues. If you think his current defense is acceptable, and his current offense is acceptable, that’s fine, and I will respectfully and fervently disagree.

I don’t care about the guys drafted around him, I am far more interested in how he is doing. In the “irrelevant comparisons department”, it can be pointed out that Sisco’s current career fWAR is 0.0(after ~250 PAs) Mancini was drafted 249th, and his career WAR after the same number of at bats was probably higher. 

The question here is whether the scouts did a bad job by drafting him in the 2nd round.   The answer to that is almost certainly no.    He’s done better than most guys drafted around him.   Whether he’ll have any kind of extended career remains to be seen.   

[wildbillhiccup]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s a really weird comparison.   Mancini is a much better hitter than Orsulak, and not as good a fielder.  3.9 rWAR in 2.5 seasons for Mancini, 5.4 in 14 seasons for Orsulak.   

For some reason I thought Orsulak flirted with 20+ HRs for a few season, but I guess not. Maybe Phil Bradley in his prime then (with Seattle)?  

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

For some reason I thought Orsulak flirted with 20+ HRs for a few season, but I guess not. Maybe Phil Bradley in his prime then (with Seattle)?  

That's a bat comp too. I didn't realize Bradley stole that many bases. I give up. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

For some reason I thought Orsulak flirted with 20+ HRs for a few season, but I guess not. Maybe Phil Bradley in his prime then (with Seattle)?  

Pretty sure Phil Bradley was a better defender and Mancini is approaching his career home run total.  

Any other random late 80s early 90s names you can throw out?  This is kinda fun.

[Philip]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The question here is whether the scouts did a bad job by drafting him in the 2nd round.   The answer to that is almost certainly no.    He’s done better than most guys drafted around him.   Whether he’ll have any kind of extended career remains to be seen.   

I’m willing to concede that point but to do so is to admit that that draft class had neither depth nor quality, and to already have determined that none of those other nearby picks will have more success, and that remains to be seen.

[Frobby]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

For some reason I thought Orsulak flirted with 20+ HRs for a few season, but I guess not. Maybe Phil Bradley in his prime then (with Seattle)?  

I think a pretty good (though scary) comp for Mancini is Larry Sheets.   Though 3 full seasons plus a short call-up the year before, he was at 127 OPS+ (Mancini is at 117), 4.5 rWAR (Mancini is at 3.9 now).     Like Mancini, he was a bad outfielder (worse than Mancini, I’d say).    Both reached the majors in their age 24 season. 

Unfortunately, Sheets fell apart in his fourth full season in the majors and was never the same again.   He had an 88 OPS+ and was worth -2.6 rWAR over the remainder of his career.    

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m willing to concede that point but to do so is to admit that that draft class had neither depth nor quality, and to already have determined that none of those other nearby picks will have more success, and that remains to be seen.

I don’t agree that it is necessary to conclude that class had neither depth nor quality.    I do agree, 100%, that it’s too soon to know how the 2013 draft class ultimately will shake out.    Including Sisco.

In another thread, it was pointed out that only 44 players picked between spots 40-44 in the draft have been worth 1.0 WAR in their careers.  That’s out of 270 players chosen in those spots.    Sisco was chosen 61st.   The scouts who picked him had maybe a 15-20% chance of picking a guy who would be worth 1.0 WAR in his major league career.    That’s not unique to 2013; those are figures going back 50 years.    It’s not easy.