Elias J2 International Orioles

[atomic]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Poitevint was hired after Wada was signed.   

12/14/11 - Wada signed

1/9/12 - Poitevint hired

1/10/12 - Chen signed

The first time I ever heard Chen’s name was in a report of remarks Buck made at some offseason fan event where he was speaking.   It was in the period after MacPhail left and before Duquette was hired.   Buck said that O’s scouts had been following Chen and the team was interested.    So he didn’t come from Poitevint in the one day between when Poitevint was hired and when Chen signed.

 

I thought one of the Stockills was in Japan looking at players.

[atomic]

https://www.baltimoresun.com/bs-mtblog-2011-10-the_orioles_and_japanese_baseb-story.html

[Tony-OH]

I'm interested in this signing period, but I'm really interested in next year's class.

[Finisher]

20 minutes ago, atomic said:

https://www.baltimoresun.com/bs-mtblog-2011-10-the_orioles_and_japanese_baseb-story.html

Props to Stockstill for Chen and Koji.

[Cumberbundy]

 

 

[spiritof66]

On 5/23/2019 at 10:24 PM, Tony-OH said:

I'm interested in this signing period, but I'm really interested in next year's class.

To me, this gets at the key point. The  Orioles' ability to compete for international free agents in this signing period is limited by several factors, and I'm not prepared to criticize those signings or the lack of them, unless they back off and sign virtually nobody. (By the way, a number of posters have pointed out that it won't take much for the Orioles to have their largest, or busiest, or whatever-est international signing period ever. Does anyone know what the current high-water mark is for the Orioles' spending on Latin American free agents in a year?)

What matters to me is the extent to which the Orioles invest -- invest, not talk about investing, but invest -- their scarce resources in scouting, signing and developing international talent. So far, the Angelos boys have showed a willingness to reduce what the team spends on player and management payroll. Now I want to see whether they're willing to spend more, a whole lot more, on international talent, including hiring skilled scouts and administrators and building first-class (or at least somewhere close to that) facilities, even though that spending increase won't produce ML-ready talent for at least a few years (unless it's traded for that talent), by which time the team may no longer be owned by Angeloses.

This year's international signings, and from what I can tell maybe next year's as well, are likely to provide no more than a limited indication of that long-range commitment. The far more important question is the allocation of resources toward investment in international talent, even though it will be harder to assess and slower to bear fruit. Just another reminder that it's probably going to take a while for the Orioles to climb out of the hole they've dug for themselves in the AL East.

[hoosiers]

My view is in line with Tony's and Spirit's though I may be a bit more patient and say, based on limiting factors, that the 2020 and 2021 signing periods are ones where we should be spending with the big boys and signing our share of the international top 50 or so.  

I don't know or care if we set a spending record for the international class that starts in about six weeks.  As long as we get where we need to be, which is a MLB team that is spending our full allocation and signing prospects across the signing bonus spectrum, I can wait a year or two or three to get there.

Based on our GM's comments, I expect that we will set some sort of record in 2020 for either total spending and/or signings above $250kand/ or signings above $100k.  It would not surprise me if we set a spending record for most spent on one prospect either.  The lower signing bonuses are where better scouting can trump the big signing bonuses to find real gems.  We shall see.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

My view is in line with Tony's and Spirit's though I may be a bit more patient and say, based on limiting factors, that the 2020 and 2021 signing periods are ones where we should be spending with the big boys and signing our share of the international top 50 or so.  

I don't know or care if we set a spending record for the international class that starts in about six weeks.  As long as we get where we need to be, which is a MLB team that is spending our full allocation and signing prospects across the signing bonus spectrum, I can wait a year or two or three to get there.

Based on our GM's comments, I expect that we will set some sort of record in 2020 for either total spending and/or signings above $250kand/ or signings above $100k.  It would not surprise me if we set a spending record for most spent on one prospect either.  The lower signing bonuses are where better scouting can trump the big signing bonuses to find real gems.  We shall see.

For reference, in the year ending 6/25/18, teams spent $149 mm of the $153 mm that was available.   But of course, some teams acquired slots from other teams.   Therefore, even though the maximum initial allotment was $5.75 mm and some teams were allotted only $4.75 mm, the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers all ended up spending in excess of $8 mm, while the Orioles’ final allotment was only $500 k.   

It will be interesting to see what the final figures are for the year ending 6/25/19.   

[hoosiers]

Despite the knocks on internationally signed 17 year olds in another thread, I believe there can be some strong value in those signings.  Folks have to remember that the 16 year olds that sign internationally had agreements when they were 14 and 15.  Now, think about the US and how much change occurs in national rankings of players at these ages (not many ranking systems and for a reason) and by the time these same US kids get to the draft at 18.  Of course, kids internationally go through the same changes which is why there is so much swing and miss internationally.  

Kids who mature later or grow substantially after their 16th birthday can be a highly under-valued resource when it comes to international signings.

[Frobby]

So, I’ve been trying to study last year’s international market to understand what we might hope for in terms of Orioles signings in the upcoming period.    As we know, most of the major signings will be announced by teams on or very shortly after July 2.    There may be some significant (in terms of dollars) signings after that, but those will mostly be one-off situations where a previously ineligible player suddenly becomes available.

I’ve been trying to get a sense of how teams allocated their money last year.   From what I could readily find, it appears that by a few days after July 2, about 125 

signings of $300 k and up were announced, broken down as follows:

$3 mm+: 1

$2.5-2.99 mm: 4

$2-2.49 mm: 2

$1.5-1.99 mm: 5

$1-1.49 mm: 9

$0.75-0.99 mm: 6

$0.50-0.74 mm: 20

$0.30-0.49 mm: 73

Unknown: 5

Source:   https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/july-2-international-prospects-signing-tracker-c283495622.html

Chances are very good that we won’t have signed any of the 20ish players who will probably get $1 mm+ bonuses.    Those guys were probably informally committed before Elias and Perez arrived.

I think it’s also questionable whether we can grab anyone deserving of a $500k+ bonus, for the same reasons.    If we were able to get one, I’d consider that a major coup for the new brass.

I’m hoping, however, that we can score a couple in the $300-499 k category.    Two of those  would be a nice score, considering that we started behind the 8-ball.    

Caveat to all this:   The 125 signings identified above only add up to a little more than half the money allotted for international signings last year.    Two reasons for that: (1) I’m sure there were some major signings that weren’t reported on the list I saw or which came later (e.g. Victor Victor Mesa and  his brother), and (2) there were tons of signings for under $300 k.    

Second caveat: I’m well aware that the skill and potential of the player doesn’t always align with the size of the bonus.    There may be (and in individual cases, will be) very good value in the under $300 k category.

If anyone knows of other sources that list international signings and the bonus amounts, please post them.

 

[Luke-OH]

The DSL starts today. 

Even though the international effort hasn't fully ramped up yet, the change in organizational philosophy is apparent from the roster construction. 

In 2018, the Orioles had 1 DSL team and only 3 players 17 years old on DSL opening day.

In 2019, they have 2 DSL teams, and 13 players who are 17 years old and 1 who is 16. 

[weams]

Elite Talent Pipeline

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

The DSL starts today. 

Even though the international effort hasn't fully ramped up yet, the change in organizational philosophy is apparent from the roster construction. 

In 2018, the Orioles had 1 DSL team and only 3 players 17 years old on DSL opening day.

In 2019, they have 2 DSL teams, and 13 players who are 17 years old and 1 who is 16. 

The O’s had 2 DSL teams as recently as 2016, then ramped down to 1 the last two years.    

I assume some of the young players on this year’s squads are the guys who were signed while DD was still in charge.    Recall we did have a number of signings announced last summer.   

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The O’s had 2 DSL teams as recently as 2016, then ramped down to 1 the last two years.    

I assume some of the young players on this year’s squads are the guys who were signed while DD was still in charge.    Recall we did have a number of signings announced last summer.   

I didn't mean change in GM, I meant change in organizational philosophy, so that's from when DD said things were changing. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I didn't mean change in GM, I meant change in organizational philosophy, so that's from when DD said things were changing. 

Yes, I understood that.   But I think it may be interesting to contrast the performance of the guys signed under DD with the ones signed after his departure.   I’m not sure I can tell which are post-DD, though there are certainly some we can peg as DD signees based on announcements made during his tenure.