Gunnar Henderson signs

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, atomic said:

I am sure someone on here can give you the cost benefit analysis.  12 percent chance you pay $2 million and you get $60 million in value. You still come out a head if you make enough of these picks.

Yeah but the odds are still stacked against you.  I think we just shouldn't pick any players unless we have a top 5 pick.

[atomic]

And for the player he only gets one chance.  I would go the college route if I could get into a good college. If I were going to the community college Chris Davis went to I would probably think about starting baseball right away. 

[atomic]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah but the odds are still stacked against you.  I think we just shouldn't pick any players unless we have a top 5 pick.

Well I guess you didn't go to college if you can't understand why they pick these players. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

Well I guess you didn't go to college if you can't understand why they pick these players. 

I just like playing where the odds are best, atomic.  I'm not so sure what's hard to understand here.

[VaBird1]

30 minutes ago, atomic said:

If you play well in college the money will still be there.  

College will be there after you can’t play anymore too.

[jamalshw]

38 minutes ago, atomic said:

If you play well in college the money will still be there.  

And if you get injured in college, it won't. If he gets a nice overslot bonus, it makes perfect sense to take it at No.42. There's the whole time value of money thing in the argument of now vs. later and if the Orioles agree to pay his college should the baseball thing not work out, he's protected there. I think your whole argument rides on the expectation that he's going to blow the money and end up with nothing. While that certainly could happen, it's not inevitable. He seems to be a thoughtful person based on the the time he put into making this decision. If invested, the money from the signing bonus alone can set him up well even if he doesn't crack the big league roster.

I think there's a case to go to school and case to take the money in either case, he'd be betting on himself. To take the money, he's betting he can make The Show. To go to college, he'd be betting on his ability to play well in college and stay healthy. It's a personal decision and I'm just glad he choose the Orioles.

[TINSTAAPP]

36 minutes ago, atomic said:

And for the player he only gets one chance.  I would go the college route if I could get into a good college. If I were going to the community college Chris Davis went to I would probably think about starting baseball right away. 

If the money is there, it makes little sense to attend college especially if you're a position player. Kris Bryant is a player who annihilated minor league pitching, rose quickly through the minors, and has put us tremendous numbers at the Major League level yet he won't be able to hit free agency until age 30 and will almost certainly receive less money and less years than Machado and Harper got by hitting free agency at a younger age. With the way baseball is heading, if players aren't in the majors by age 21 or 22, there's little chance they'll get a mega contract. 

 

[atomic]

11 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

If the money is there, it makes little sense to attend college especially if you're a position player. Kris Bryant is a player who annihilated minor league pitching, rose quickly through the minors, and has put us tremendous numbers at the Major League level yet he won't be able to hit free agency until age 30 and will almost certainly receive less money and less years than Machado and Harper got by hitting free agency at a younger age. With the way baseball is heading, if players aren't in the majors by age 21 or 22, there's little chance they'll get a mega contract. 

  

Kris Bryant has already made $32 million dollars and will get a raise in arbitration next year.  I don't think he is the scenario you should be using. 

[TINSTAAPP]

13 minutes ago, atomic said:

Kris Bryant has already made $32 million dollars and will get a raise in arbitration next year.  I don't think he is the scenario you should be using. 

Bryce Harper will have made $120 million and Manny will have made $115.5 million when Bryant hits free agency in two years. If Bryant gets $25 million the next two years in arbitration, he'll still have made $30-40 million less than Harper and Machado and will unlikely get anywhere near a 10+ year, $300+ million deal at 30 years old. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

In the history of the draft only 6 players picked at 42 have put up 1 WAR.  I think having fun in college while getting an education is the smart move. Auburn us a good college.  Odds are he blows his money and doesn't make the big leagues.

This logic is way off base.     The real questions for Henderson are:

1.    What are the odds he would get a bigger signing bonus if he went to college and waited three years?

2.    What are the odds he would improve his chances of getting to the majors, and staying there, by going to college instead of starting his pro career at 18?

3.    How much does he value the opportunity to go to college at 18, as opposed to going later if he wants?

4.   How much would he enjoy playing college baseball, compared to minor league baseball, over the next three years?

These questions are personal and specific to the player, and there is no one size fits all answer.

As to whether he will blow his money, that’s in his control.     It certainly doesn’t have to happen that way.

 

[brvn52]

 

[Yardball85]

2 hours ago, atomic said:

In the history of the draft only 6 players picked at 42 have put up 1 WAR.  I think having fun in college while getting an education is the smart move. Auburn us a good college.  Odds are he blows his money and doesn't make the big leagues.

Do you get all warm and fuzzy every time you post something contrarian?  Like, no one thinks you're smarter than the rest of the board for posting contrarian opinions.

 

Also, the 42nd pick statistic is absolutely meaningless.  He's a teenager with a ton of talent who many predicted would go earlier.  

[Frobby]

$2.2 mm is basically the slot value for the 33rd pick.    

[Yardball85]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This logic is way off base.     The real questions for Henderson are:

1.    What are the odds he would get a bigger signing bonus if he went to college and waited three years?

2.    What are the odds he would improve his chances of getting to the majors, and staying there, by going to college instead of starting his pro career at 18?

3.    How much does he value the opportunity to go to college at 18, as opposed to going later if he wants?

4.   How much would he enjoy playing college baseball, compared to minor league baseball, over the next three years?

These questions are personal and specific to the player, and there is no one size fits all answer.

As to whether he will blow his money, that’s in his control.     It certainly doesn’t have to happen that way.

 

The logic is laughably bad.  

[weams]

2 hours ago, atomic said:

In the history of the draft only 6 players picked at 42 have put up 1 WAR.  I think having fun in college while getting an education is the smart move. Auburn us a good college.  Odds are he blows his money and doesn't make the big leagues.

How about 42 or below? Anything below counts if you pick the right one.