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Gunnar Henderson signs

Luke-OH

By Luke-OH
in Orioles Talk

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Luke-OH
Luke-OH
Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan

I dunno if you're considering that as a dig at Manny of some sorts but I think Manny has 300 million reasons not to care what goes on in Baltimore. This is a good point.  I think any team that

brvn52
brvn52
WalkWithElias Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

WalkWithElias

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What?  Why are you focusing on that?  The salient point is that you're arguing that he should turn down $2M today, so that he can get a scholarship worth $10s of thousands a year and a shot at being redrafted in a few years, but maybe not.  The math makes no sense.  Just the interest on his signing bonus is probably the equivalent of slot for pick #125 in four years.

Yeah, but you know the kids these days with their fancy phones and selfie sticks. He has a lot of experience with spending habits of most 18 year old millionaires. Probably go spend it all on a flat screen TV. 

Anyway... welcome to Birdland, Gunnar. I look forward to seeing what absurd nickname Cy Bundy comes up with. 

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If you take the $800k 20-year ROI for Stanford and add in the $300k cost of going to Stanford that's a grand total of $1.2M.  Henderson is going to get a check for something like $2M tomorrow.  He'll pay $650k or so in taxes, bank $1.35M.  If he puts $1M of that in a safe investment he's going to have five times that $1.2M in 20 years.

You're suggesting he set many $millions on fire so he can hang out in a dorm instead of with the BaySox, and possibly get a degree.  Oh, and not from Stanford.  From Auburn.

And teams regularly include college payment clauses for high school players, so he's likely promised something like the equivalent of 4 years at Auburn as an unreported part of his deal.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, atomic said:

The odds that you pick the right one are about 11 percent at that position in the draft.  

Depends what you mean by the “right one.”    But I thought I’d point out that 42 has been kind of a fluky weak spot in the draft.    Number of players over 1 WAR (your original criterion): 

40: 7

41: 12

42: 6

43: 8

44: 11

Throw in that they are paying Gunnar as though he were the equivalent of the 33rd pick, and I think his chances are better than 11%.   In the area around that pick you get:

31: 6

32: 15

33: 8

34: 14

35: 10

Overall, I’d say the chances of Henderson being a 1+ WAR player are about 20%.   Still not great odds, but that’s how the draft is.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
Just now, Yardball85 said:

Weams, do you think he starts in Aberdeen or Delmarva?  What do you think his ETA is?

https://www.thegoodphight.com/2019/5/9/18536383/phillies-2019-draft-preview-gunnar-henderson-ss-mlb-auburn

I'd have no idea. If he is who we think he is we want him the majors by age 21. He's just turned 18 now. So I'd hope Aberdeen. But maybe GCL.

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

They've got their SS in Aberdeen, I think.

Ortiz and Carmona are both on that roster. Might mean Gunnar is ticketed for the GCL. They will certainly have some decisions to make next year as I'm sure they will prefer to have all three at full season ball, with Hall and Grenier also at A+. 

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Yardball85 Hangout Veteran Council

Yardball85

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, weams said:

https://www.thegoodphight.com/2019/5/9/18536383/phillies-2019-draft-preview-gunnar-henderson-ss-mlb-auburn

I'd have no idea. If he is who we think he is we want him the majors by age 21. He's just turned 18 now. So I'd hope Aberdeen. But maybe GCL.

Gotcha.  I'm excited to see him play.  Really thrilled they were able to sign him, good gamble by Elias.  I'd say Aberdeen for the rest of the year, Delmarva to start next year with possibility of Frederick depending on how he does.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Ortiz and Carmona are both on that roster. Might mean Gunnar is ticketed for the GCL. They will certainly have some decisions to make next year as I'm sure they will prefer to have all three at full season ball, with Hall and Grenier also at A+. 

I don't think anyone is blocking Hall or Grenier at AA or AAA

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Weams, do you think he starts in Aberdeen or Delmarva?  What do you think his ETA is?

I’d be surprised if he started above the GCL.    Almost all high school kids do, including our last 2 no. 1 draft picks.    And we have a couple older shortstops at Aberdeen already.   

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, weams said:

I don't think anyone is blocking Hall or Grenier at AA or AAA

Hall and Grenier are blocking themselves. If they're not ready and we push them there, I think that means they're really considered almost non-prospects. 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Hall and Grenier are blocking themselves. If they're not ready and we push them there, I think that means they're really considered almost non-prospects. 

Grenier HAS to be ready there darned soon. Hall has time. 

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