Is Sisco Toast?

[atomic]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, but the effect isn’t that big.    28 attempts, should catch 8, has caught 4, so 4 extra steals.    Each “extra” steal is worth between .09 and .29 runs, depending on which base is stolen and how many outs there are; call it .2 runs on average.    So the 4 extra stolen bases are worth maybe one run.   

If he played more it would be more runs. He doesnt play more because he doesnt throw many guys out

 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes and no.    Villar has been picked off 6 times.   Three of those were classified as pickoff/caught stealing and so count in his CS stats.    The other three don’t.   

The difference between a pure PO and a POCS is whether the runner is out trying to get back to 1B or is running to 2B.

If you include the three pure pickoffs, Villar’s success rate drops from 80% to 75%, which is still very good.   

I was aware of the difference just not how many of each he had.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

If he played more it would be more runs. He doesnt play more because he doesnt throw many guys out

 

That’s a fair enough point.    But let’s say he played 120 games at that same rate (he’s started 37).    So maybe he’d have cost the team 4 runs.    That’s not great, but not a lot, either.    A good hitting catcher easily would make up for that with his bat.    So, to me, it’s a matter of whether Sisco will develop into a good enough hitter to do that.   (I’ll add that he has other defensive deficiencies that need to improve.)

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was aware of the difference just not how many of each he had.

I figured you’d know, but stuck it in for anyone who didn’t.   

[Legend_Of_Joey]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

That’s a fair enough point.    But let’s say he played 120 games at that same rate (he’s started 37).    So maybe he’d have cost the team 4 runs.    That’s not great, but not a lot, either.    A good hitting catcher easily would make up for that with his bat.    So, to me, it’s a matter of whether Sisco will develop into a good enough hitter to do that.   (I’ll add that he has other defensive deficiencies that need to improve.)

He has gone through a weird change this year, bodywise. In the Spring, he was noticeably bigger, but it was more "overall muscle." When he came up, it has started to be more "beer belly" overall. Since then, his swing seems more erratic and like he is forcing things.

Whether he had a stricter diet and exercise plan (that was clearly working in Norfolk) or he is enjoying the MLB food a little more, I wonder if that is hurting his hitting a bit?

[LA2]

15 hours ago, atomic said:

You are totally discounting his steal rate and other things like OBP

  The year he scored 146 runs he was only caught stealing 10 times.  The year he stole 130 he was caught 42 times.

 

Glad to see that you, I, and Drungo are in agreement on this.

[TINSTAAPP]

On 9/6/2019 at 11:34 PM, Ohfan67 said:

Stolen bases and caught stealing are exciting plays, but they just don’t mean very much. 

And it's too bad for that because stolen bases and baserunning and outfield defense are really the only ways for players to show off their athleticism. I bet a lot more people from the younger demographic would be more enthused about baseball if more players were aggressive on the bathpaths like Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines than just watching a bunch of guys stand around and try to hit the ball out of the ballpark. 

[Ohfan67]

5 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

And it's too bad for that because stolen bases and baserunning and outfield defense are really the only ways for players to show off their athleticism. I bet a lot more people from the younger demographic would be more enthused about baseball if more players were aggressive on the bathpaths like Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines than just watching a bunch of guys stand around and try to hit the ball out of the ballpark. 

Although I think Earl was right about stolen bases, and the data are very strong, I think stolen bases and close caught stealings are some of the most fun plays in baseball. But I enjoy watching the Orioles win more than I enjoy those plays. 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Although I think Earl was right about stolen bases, and the data are very strong, I think stolen bases and close caught stealings are some of the most fun plays in baseball. But I enjoy watching the Orioles win more than I enjoy those plays. 

Yeah, it’s kind of a bummer when playing winning baseball means playing less exciting baseball.     Because I’d rather win than be exciting, but overall you’d like the sport to be more exciting.     

I still tend to think there’s a place for stolen bases and other forms of small ball, if done intelligently.    The 2014-15 Royals were successful that way.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

27 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

And it's too bad for that because stolen bases and baserunning and outfield defense are really the only ways for players to show off their athleticism. I bet a lot more people from the younger demographic would be more enthused about baseball if more players were aggressive on the bathpaths like Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines than just watching a bunch of guys stand around and try to hit the ball out of the ballpark. 

One thing that also hurts base running is all the ballparks have some type of field turf and dirt infield now. It was peak astroturf back in Henderson's and Raines' heyday.

Running on a solid surface over dirt is going to make you a slightly fast runner. And fractions of a second count when you're trying to steal 2B or leg out a triple. 

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

Although I think Earl was right about stolen bases, and the data are very strong, I think stolen bases and close caught stealings are some of the most fun plays in baseball. But I enjoy watching the Orioles win more than I enjoy those plays. 

What would be even better would be a version of baseball where the Orioles can win and stolen bases can be a positive offensive weapon.  Enough of one, combined with disadvantages to home run hitting, where teams have a legitimate choice between power and baserunning when constructing a team.  Now the only choice is if you might have a wee bit of baserunning to add an occasional change of pace to your team's 245 homers.

[HowAboutThat]

 It is easier to score from second on a single then it is to score from first on a single. 

If you steal a base to get to second, it’s better. It’s better to be on second than on first. It’s better to be a stolen base threat than not. I loved having Nate McLouth hitting in front of Nick Markakis. Get a single, steal second and score on Reliable Nick.

But controlling the running game, which none of our guys does very well, is a very small part of the catching pantheon, and how he does at the rest of it is going to determine whether Sisco remains at catcher. At the moment it doesn’t look promising.

[weams]

Quote

I so want to like Chance Sisco given his Triple-A breakout and getting his FB Pull% up to league average territory is the first step. He’s certainly in a good park to take advantage of his power and on a team that should be more than willing to give their young talent every opportunity to hold a job.

Fangraphs

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, weams said:

Fangraphs

People forget the offense part is what is really going to define Sisco as a player.  It's his offense that will hold him back.  Hopefully, he has fixed the holes in his swing.  

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

People forget the offense part is what is really going to define Sisco as a player.  It's his offense that will hold him back.  Hopefully, he has fixed the holes in his swing.  

Agreed.    His bat will need to carry his glove.  But you don’t need a .900 OPS to do that.    Major league average at C last year was .236/.308/.405.     Sisco didn’t exceed that by enough last year (.210/.333/.395), but he’s still developing.    Let’s see what 2020 brings.    Hopefully 2021 brings Rutschman.