Does O's management want to win in Sept?

[DrungoHazewood]

31 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think the O's will be much better than folks expect next year. 

.500 or a bit under. 

 

22 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I think you are right, but dont tell the trolls, they feel the world is flat and the sky is falling.

The Orioles are on pace for a nearly -300 run differential. To get to .500 they'd need to make up 300 runs.  That's lowering the team ERA by 1.00 run/game, while also scoring 1.00 run/game more than they have this year.  One half of that would be a pretty big leap.  30 wins is on the outside edge of what's plausible.  Only a small handful of teams have ever improved by 30 games in one season.  

The two teams known to history as "miracle" teams (the 1914 Braves and the '69 Mets) improved by less than 30 games.  The '12 Orioles only improved by 24 wins.  The '89 Orioles improved by 33, and I'm pretty sure that's one of the top three or five totals in history.

Calling people trolls when they're skeptical that the '20 Orioles will make an historic leap forward is ludicrous.

[Frobby]

I don’t see how we will improve the pitching enough to be anywhere close to .500.    .400 would be an achievement.   

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t see how we will improve the pitching enough to be anywhere close to .500.    .400 would be an achievement.   

The '91 Braves saw Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, along with Mike Stanton and Kent Mercker all come together at once.  They improved their pitching by 177 runs in one year.  The O's would have to duplicate that.  And then to get to .500 they'd need to do that on the offensive side of the ball, too.

The 2008 Rays improved their pitching by 273 runs in one season, but actually regressed a few runs on offense.  They had multiple young starters improve, but really it was the bullpen.  The '07 Rays had a pen about on par with the '19 Orioles, but cut about 2.5 runs/nine off that in '08.  Their bullpen allowed 150 fewer runs in '08 than in '07.  That's the template the O's should be following if they wanted to leap forward - basically replace the entire pen with wipeout arms.

[hoosiers]

If we don't deal Villar and Mancini, cut Davis and improve at SS, promote Mountcastle, then I could see a respectable improvement in our runs scored next year.  I don't see it on the pitching side unless one of our pitchers shows a John Mean's like improvement or our FO conjures up a SP3 out of nothing.  

Harvey will help a lot in the bullpen IMO and maybe we can get another arm or two to join him - so I think the bp will be better unless we deal Givens.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

...so I think the bp will be better unless we deal Givens.

The Orioles are running neck-and-neck with the '07 Rays for the worst bullpen ERA since WWII.  Sometime in the next couple weeks they'll pass the '30 Phils for most runs ever allowed by a bullpen.  Even the Rockies, as an expansion team playing in Mile High Stadium, never had a bullpen that allowed nearly as many runs as the '19 Orioles.

I'm going to make a prediction that the bullpen will be better in '20 even if they deal Givens and Harvey's arm falls off.

[NCRaven]

Whatever happened to Grover, the guy that was throwing 100 in independent leagues?

[Redskins Rick]

18 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Whatever happened to Grover, the guy that was throwing 100 in independent leagues?

maybe the radar gun was on the juice?

[7Mo]

30 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Whatever happened to Grover, the guy that was throwing 100 in independent leagues?

He went on the IL in June.

[OFFNY]

33 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

 

Whatever happened to Grover, the guy that was throwing 100 MPH in the Independent Leagues ???

 

o

 

 

o

[DrungoHazewood]

37 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Whatever happened to Grover, the guy that was throwing 100 in independent leagues?

13 meh innings for the Baysox.  Hurt?

[Dipper9]

On 9/2/2019 at 9:54 AM, weams said:

No. Hyde does. Elias is not influencing on field play.  This is not a two headed monster. It never has been. Hyde plays the guys. Elias runs the show. 

Well, Elias still has Davis on the roster, so he is "kinda" influencing the on field results.  Now Hyde, to his credit, is not playing him, so I'll give you that Hyde has more influence on wins than Elias, but Elias is not completely out of the picture.

[Redskins Rick]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Calling people trolls when they're skeptical that the '20 Orioles will make an historic leap forward is ludicrous.

Some OH Posters are trolls, and have been loudly complaining about the Orioles, even when they was playing top notch baseball.

They are gloom and doomers.

Not all, just a select few posters.

[Dipper9]

2 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

I think you are right, but dont tell the trolls, they feel the world is flat and the sky is falling.

This statement is ironically, trolling.  (wink)

The reason for the sky is falling mentality is that we have NO pitching.  Outside of a surprise year from Means, and a few good appearances from Harvey, I wouldn't be sad if the entire staff was gone next year.  

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, Dipper9 said:

This statement is ironically, trolling.  (wink)

The reason for the sky is falling mentality is that we have NO pitching.  Outside of a surprise year from Means, and a few good appearances from Harvey, I wouldn't be sad if the entire staff was gone next year.  

Rome wasn't built overnight.

Any expectation for winning baseball in year 1 of a rebuild of this magnitude is pretty ludicious in itself.

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 minutes ago, Dipper9 said:

This statement is ironically, trolling.  (wink)

The reason for the sky is falling mentality is that we have NO pitching.  Outside of a surprise year from Means, and a few good appearances from Harvey, I wouldn't be sad if the entire staff was gone next year.  

The sky sort of already fell.  No reason to get overly worked up about it now while the team works on a path forward.