People here seem to forget

[24fps]

So you're saying I count you in with those whose expectations for Huff are ridiculous.

I'm not saying it's impossible for Huff to repeat these numbers, but it's extremely unlikely given his past performance.

Then are you also saying it's extremely likely that he returns to 2004-2006 levels? Maybe there's a middle ground that warrants a contract extension for another 2-3 years, especially if the alternative is Mark Teixiera at a ridiculously inflated contract for a ridiculous number of years.

What is it about a couple of bad years that automatically disqualifies a player from receiving the benefit of the doubt even in the face of consistent improvement over the course of an entire season? What alternative even remotely approximates the risk/reward equation at 1B?

Huff is under contract for all of next season and if he stays out of trouble during the upcoming off-season (and isn't traded), then I for one am willing to allow him to take 2009 to prove that my renewed faith in him isn't misplaced. Until then, I'm going to follow each at-bat with great interest and hope he's found a new respect for what always has been considerable talent.

[safoster]

Even through Huff's mediocre years he has put up a good .340ish OBP. Also, this isn't a career year for him. He's put up two fantastic seasons with TB where he hit .313/.364/.520 and .311/.367/.565. He also put up a nice .853 OPS the year after those two.

Melvin Mora put up a career season (a real career season) at 31 and improved upon it at 32. He's also come back at 36 to put up great numbers after a few "mediocre" years where he still had a nice .340+ OBP.

Huff has never been a poor hitter in any year, it's just that last year he put up his third worst OBP and SLG year of his career, including his pretty crappy rookie year with Tampa.

I'm happy with his rebound and don't think for a second that he cannot replicate similar-or at least good-numbers next year.

[sector7g]

As far as Huff is concerned, just pencil him into the line up next year until someone makes you an offer that's greater than the two draft picks he's going to get us at the end of 2009. I don't see him extending only because I imagine he now feels he's done enough to get a long term deal and there's no sense in us giving that to him.

[Mark Carver]

If you think 2004 was mediocre, look again. 2005 wasn't a horrible year either. His only bad year was 2006 when he was traded to Houston.

He had no offensive support in TB, so it made it even harder for him to drive in runs. Look what he can do when there is offense around him.

Im glad Mark made this thread, because it was also annoying me too. 31 is really not that old, its not ridiculous to think he cant repeat this season.

In 2005, Huff had a 98 OPS+, 100 equals average. Which means he was below average in 2005. In 2006 he was better with a 108 OPS+.

[Fan4Life]

I don't think you can go into next season without having added a Tex/Dunn like player whether you expect Huff to decline or not. If you trade Huff you'll need to add 2 players liek that. Huff's going to be making $8M next season, so if he puts up a .275/.330/.450ish line with 20HR's and 80+ RBI, he will have earned his money.

[TGO]

I don't think you can go into next season without having added a Tex/Dunn like player whether you expect Huff to decline or not. If you trade Huff you'll need to add 2 players liek that. Huff's going to be making $8M next season, so if he puts up a .275/.330/.450ish line with 20HR's and 80+ RBI, he will have earned his money.

This post is gold. I don't understand why we're even worrying about Huff and what he'll do next year as much as we are. I know this lineup looks pretty good right now, but you go out and get another bat or two or three this winter regardless, that is if you want to compete next year. Huff is not a free agent, we don't have to promise him a starting job. If he hits again next year, he plays 155 games. If he doesn't, you have someone else to platoon him with or take ABs away from him. It's that simple.

As for whether to trade him while he's hot this offseason, I expect MacPhail to make the right call. If he gets a good deal, he will. If not, he won't. I don't expect him to get fair value because of Huff's limited defensive value and his reputation for inconsistency and laziness throughout the league. He may have gotten beyond the latter issue this year but people will still have it in their minds.

[DrungoHazewood]

In 2005, Huff had a 98 OPS+, 100 equals average. Which means he was below average in 2005. In 2006 he was better with a 108 OPS+.

Average for the entire league. Remember, Aubrey Huff is a DH. An average DH has an OPS 50 or more points higher than league average. So when Huff logged a 110 or lower OPS+ (as he did every year from 2005-2007) he was a below-average DH.

Even this year, with offense down, AL DHs have a .775 OPS. And that's significantly watered down by Seattle's inexplicable, illogical decision to DH Jose Vidro and his .600 OPS. So Huff is only 3-4 wins over replacement this year.

I think everyone is going to need to step back, take a breath, and look at this year objectively after it's over. Aubrey Huff is having a fine season, no doubt. But he's also having his first above-average season since 2004, and DHs don't usually age as gracefully as other players. He may be worthwhile to keep around for 2009, but as much for the lack of return from other skeptical clubs as for his likely performance next season.

[NewMarketSean]

That broken down catcher that you refer to? He's Jorge Posada, who celebrated his 31st birthday on the D.L. yesterday. Now THERES a guy I wouldnt have given a 3 year deal to.

You mean 37th birthday, right?

[Frobby]

Huff easily could have a few good seasons left in him. I certainly wouldn't count on him equaling his 2008 output, however, even though that's possible. I'd expect something in between his 2007 and 2008 seasons.

[Mad Mark]

When the voice of Aubrey's Mom started speaking to me, she told me to make the OP simply to pull everyone away from the ledge. To remind everyone that Huff isn't on the verge of age-indicated disintegration, and that he needn't be traded for a bag of balls, just to unburden the Orioles from his (relatively sane) salary.

If MacPhail feels he can get value (or better yet, value +) for Huff, I would wish him well, and welcome the new Birds to the flock. But, like other posters have said above, if you don't see a good offer, let him play out next season, and evaluate your options then. Two draft picks aren't the end of the world.

[Slappy]

Huff is not a fluke. He is a proven quality major league hitter. OPS+ has been under 100 in only 2 of his 8 seasons (1 was his rookie year). Career OPS is .825, OPS+ of 116. He's hit over 20 HR 6 of the last 7 years. He's hit over .300 twice in his career, with one .297 and on pace to top .300 this year. Why do people talk about him like he's the next David Segui?

[Fan4Life]

Huff is not a fluke. He is a proven quality major league hitter. OPS+ has been under 100 in only 2 of his 8 seasons (1 was his rookie year). Career OPS is .825, OPS+ of 116. He's hit over 20 HR 6 of the last 7 years. He's hit over .300 twice in his career, with one .297 and on pace to top .300 this year. Why do people talk about him like he's the next David Segui?

Because 'First impressions are last impressions' and last season when he was generally mediocre, was the First Impression.

I think he'll be in the .275 range with over 20 HR's next year. If we add Tex or Dunn to hit behind him, he'll be even better.

[Sports Guy]

Huff easily could have a few good seasons left in him. I certainly wouldn't count on him equaling his 2008 output, however, even though that's possible. I'd expect something in between his 2007 and 2008 seasons.

Why do you EXPECT that?

You are basically saying you think he is going to have an OPS around 850 or so...Why?

[JTrea81]

Why do you EXPECT that?

You are basically saying you think he is going to have an OPS around 850 or so...Why?

Why do you think he's suddenly going to drop 100 points in OPS by having another birthday?

[Mackus]

People aren't expecting a huge dropoff from Huff next year because he is going to be 32.

People are expecting a dropoff from Huff next year because the last two years before this year he put up a .775 and .813 OPS and for his career has an .825 OPS.

Here is a set of four numbers. Tell me which one doesn't belong:

.825

.813

.917

.775