2019 Top 30 Prospects List

[Tony-OH]

It's that time of year once again where we give you an in-depth view of the Orioles system. We will be doing our top 30 once again, but this year we will give you a new grading system so you can quickly see where the player is currently in development, where they will most likely end up, and their ceiling if everything breaks for them. This will help you determine the closeness of the player to the big leagues as well as the toolsy guys with bigger ceilings but who are farther away.

We developed this list after doing our own scouting, analyzing statistics,  and after analyzing comments from players development personnel and professional scouts inside and outside of the organization. As with last year, I worked in collaboration with Luke Siler to develop the list. Our official list listed here is the collaborative result of our analysis. 

2018 Prospect List

New Grading System:
Grade    Hitters                  Starters                  Relievers
80          HOFer                   HOFer #1    
75          Top 1-2                Top 1-2 #1    
70          Top 5                    Top 5 #1     
65          All-Star                 All-Star #1-#2    
60          Plus                      #2-#3                      Elite Closer All-Star
55          Above AVG          #3-#4                      Mid-Closer
50          AVG Regular       #4-#5                      Low-Closer/Elite Setup
45         Platoon/Utilty      #5-Swingman        Setup
40         Bench                   Up/Down                Middle/Long relief
35         Up/Down              Emergency            Up/Down
30         Org (AA/AAA)      Org (AA/AAA)       Org (AA/AAA)
25         Org (AA)               Org (AA)                 Org (AA)
20         Org (A Ball )         Org (A Ball)            Org (A Ball)

Rank	Name	Current Grade	Future Grade	Ceiling Grade
1	Adley Rutschman	50	70	70
2	Grayson Rodriguez	40	60	70
3	DL Hall	30	60	70
4	Ryan Mountcastle	50	60	65
5	Austin Hays	50	55	60
6	Yusniel Diaz	40	50	55
7	Mike Baumann	40	50	55
8	Zac Lowther	40	50	55
9	Gunnar Henderson	20	50	60
10	Hunter Harvey	50	55	60
11	Dean Kremer	40	45	50
12	Keegan Akin	40	45	50
13	Alex Wells	40	45	50
14	Drew Rom	25	45	50
15	Brenan Hanifee	30	45	50
16	Darrell Hernaiz	25	45	55
17	Adam Hall	25	45	50
18	Kyle Stowers	25	40	50
19	Ryan McKenna	35	40	45
20	Bruce Zimmerman	40	40	45
21	Rylan Bannon	35	40	40
22	Adam Stauffer	25	40	50
23	Zach Pop	30	40	45
24	Leonardo Rodriguez	25	40	45
25	Gray Fenter	25	40	45
26	Dillon Tate	40	40	40
27	Cody Sedlock	35	40	40
28	Griffin McLarty	25	40	45
29	Toby Welk	25	40	45
30	Brett Cumberland	30	40	40

[Pheasants]

OK, I figured out that what we often refer to as AAAA is a 35-40 Up/Down; would you define the meaning of Top 1-2 and Top 5--better than All-stars but not Hall of Famers?  One of the top 1-2 or 5 players at that position in the majors?

[Tony-OH]

On 11/5/2019 at 9:36 AM, Pheasants said:

OK, I figured out that what we often refer to as AAAA is a 35-40 Up/Down; would you define the meaning of Top 1-2 and Top 5--better than All-stars but not Hall of Famers?  One of the top 1-2 or 5 players at that position in the majors?

This one.

[Frobby]

I’m curious about what the process was in compiling the list and doing the grades.     Do you guys still talk to various other scouts?     Is that something you do sort of systematically after the year is over, or is it more random than that over the course of the year?     How many of these guys were you able to see in person?   Do you find it hard to compare a guy you’ve seen 3-4 times with a guy you’ve never seen or maybe saw once?   Does it matter whether you see them live or on video?

Lots of questions, I know, but the process fascinates me.    

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m curious about what the process was in compiling the list and doing the grades.     Do you guys still talk to various other scouts?     Is that something you do sort of systematically after the year is over, or is it more random than that over the course of the year?     How many of these guys were you able to see in person?   Do you find it hard to compare a guy you’ve seen 3-4 times with a guy you’ve never seen or maybe saw once?   Does it matter whether you see them live or on video?

Lots of questions, I know, but the process fascinates me.    

I don’t have time to do a deep in-depth answer to all the questions now, but as far as seeing guys, my favorite thing is to watch 3-4 starts or 20 or so ABs on video and then see the player live. So I have the context and then I can focus on the little things you miss on video. I’ve seen all the guys on the list in A+ or above live at least once. Most multiple times. I’ve seen everyone above rookie ball multiple games of video, huge amounts for the guys in the upper minors. Maybe 30-40 Akin starts.

[weams]

50 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

 Maybe 30-40 Akin starts.

So I am interested when it comes time. As you know. 

[Luke-OH]

Another of Frobby’s questions, I talk to a couple scouts and few more prospect writers who see players live. I don’t ask them about players before making my list, but there is some continuous back and forth that colors my opinions of players, mostly just the low minors ones I haven’t seen much. I generally just trust my eyes if I have enough looks.

[Tony-OH]

I'm pretty sure I've explained my process at the top of the list in the minors section: "We developed this list after doing our own scouting (Video and in person), analyzing statistics,  and after analyzing comments from players development personnel and professional scouts inside and outside of the organization. As with last year, I worked in collaboration with Luke Siler to develop the list. Our official list listed here is the collaborative result of our analysis. "

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm pretty sure I've explained my process at the top of the list in the minors section: "We developed this list after doing our own scouting (Video and in person), analyzing statistics,  and after analyzing comments from players development personnel and professional scouts inside and outside of the organization. As with last year, I worked in collaboration with Luke Siler to develop the list. Our official list listed here is the collaborative result of our analysis. "

Yeah, I was really just looking for elaboration on the specific points I raised.    But fine with me if you don’t feel like getting into further detail.     Thanks for all the hard work that goes into making the list.   It’s my favorite part of Orioles Hangout, and what brought me here in the first place all those years ago.

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I was really just looking for elaboration on the specific points I raised.    But fine with me if you don’t feel like getting into further detail.     Thanks for all the hard work that goes into making the list.   It’s my favorite part of Orioles Hangout, and what brought me here in the first place all those years ago.

We will hopefully be doing something like a podcast or facebook video after the list is out and perhaps that is a better place to discuss your questions. Thanks for your longtime support.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

We will hopefully be doing something like a podcast or facebook video after the list is out and perhaps that is a better place to discuss your questions. Thanks for your longtime support.

That would be fun.   Loved those videos you shot with Terry Ford last year.    Getting you and Luke together to debate the pros and cons of some of the prospects would be awesome.

[Greg Pappas]

Enjoying the list, per usual.  The only surprise thus far is Dean Kremer missing from the Top 10.

[LookinUp]

On 11/6/2019 at 6:02 PM, weams said:

So I am interested when it comes time. As you know. 

Just a nudge that this page could use an update too. I keep forgetting where folks were listed so this is where I visit.

 

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Just a nudge that this page could use an update too. I keep forgetting where folks were listed so this is where I visit.

 

Just did it.

[LookinUp]

On 11/14/2019 at 8:27 PM, Tony-OH said:

Just did it.

Just another nudge.

The reason I'm asking is because I'm curious how the system compares to itself over multiple years. I was going to compare the current, future and ceiling grades of the top 30. I don't see those grades in the write-ups. I will go back and look again just to be sure.

My early look seems to indicate that the top 5/10 is better this year mostly because of AR while the rest of the system, by those grades, is pretty similar. Note that I'm only comparing to 2018 because I don't think those grades are available for the top 30 in 2017 and before. One metric I also wanted to add is age.

Just my curiosity.