Who will be #9 and #10 Prospects?

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just picked a list at random.

I ended up with the Sun's top 10 from Jan 2011.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/bs-mtblog-2011-01-ranking_the_orioles_top_10_pro-story.html

Dan Klein is listed at #6 and he was a third round pick in 2010.  He pitched 6 1/3 innings for the O's in 2010.

I think if you look back a substantial number of top 10 lists will include second round picks from the prior season. 

Here was ours: Red means total miss

1. Dylan Bundy - RHP - Discussion Thread
2. Manny Machado - SS - Discussion Thread
3. Jonathan Schoop - 2B/SS - Discussion Thread
4. Nick Delmonico - 1B/3B - Discussion Thread
5. LJ Hoes - LF/2B - Discussion Thread
6. Parker Bridwell - RHP - Discussion Thread
7. Jason Esposito - 3B - Discussion Thread
8. Dan Klein - RHP - Discussion Thread
9. Glynn Davis - CF - Discussion Thread
10. Gabriel Lino - C - Discussion Thread
11. Bobby Bundy - RHP - Discussion Thread
12. Michael Wright - RHP - Discussion Thread Still pitching in big league but has been worth -1.4 WAR
13. Eduardo Rodriguez - LHP - Discussion Thread
14. Kyle Simon - RHP - Discussion Thread
15. Oliver Drake - RHP - Discussion thread
16. Trent Mummey - CF/LF - Discussion thread
17. Xavier Avery - CF/LF - Discussion thread
18. Ryan Adams - 2B - Discussion thread
19. Greg Miclat - 2B/UTL - Discussion thread (Traded to Texas for Taylor Teagarden)
20. Matt Angle - CF - Discussion thread
21. Tim Berry - LHP
22. Randy Henry - RHP (Traded to Texas for Taylor Teagarden)
23. Clayton Schrader - RHP
24. Tyler Townsend - 1B
25. Pedro Florimon - SS (Lost to Twins on waivers)
26. David Baker - RHP
27. Jarret Martin - LHP (Traded to Dodgers with Tyler Henson for Dana Eveland)
28. Troy Patton - LHP
29. Joe Mahoney - 1B
30. Brian Ward - C

If i had to do it over, I think I would have put Machado #1!

In fact, my top 10 should have been (By WAR in their careers after 2019 season):

1. Machado 36.9 (Was #2)
2. Eduardo Rodriguez 13.6 (was #13 after GCL season and 1 Aberdeen start)
3. Schoop 13.2 (#3 yay..got this one right)
4. Bundy 6.8 (#1 but hadn't pitch pro yet)
5. Givens 6.2 (Off the list before his conversion to pitcher)
6. Caleb Joseph 4.6 (Not on list)
7. Troy Patton 3.2 (28th)
8. Pedro Florimon 2.5 (25th, but was right about him being a utility guy)
9. Oliver Drake 1.4 (15th)
10. Parker Bridwell 1.3 (6th)

Note, Tim Adelman and Steve Johnson both had 0.9 WAR and would have been next.

[interloper]

I'm a little surprised Kremer is sinking all the way to 9 or 10 or worse here. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I'm a little surprised Kremer is sinking all the way to 9 or 10 or worse here. 

Stuff took a step back this year, particularly the swing and miss on the fastball. There are more concerns of him sticking as a starter now which limits his profile over guys we think have better chances of staying in the rotation and power relievers like Harvey!

[DirtyBird]

My list is getting ugly

 

[weams]

I still believe in Kremer too. I think the oblique destroyed his season.  It's not an arm injury.

[Aristotelian]

43 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

My list is getting ugly

 

Most are in the wrong spots but they are all in the ballpark. I got 1-2 but after that I have struck out completely! After the top 3 I don't see a lot of difference from 4-10, they are all good and I would want a lot to trade any of them.

[interloper]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Stuff took a step back this year, particularly the swing and miss on the fastball. There are more concerns of him sticking as a starter now which limits his profile over guys we think have better chances of staying in the rotation and power relievers like Harvey!

Gotcha. I feel like I've read much rosier narratives about Kremer lately, but perhaps not. Interested to see what he does at Norfolk next season. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, weams said:

I still believe in Kremer too. I think the oblique destroyed his season.  It's not an arm injury.

“Destroyed” being a relative term.  0.00 ERA in 2 rehab starts at Frederick, 2.98 ERA in 15 starts at Bowie, 8.84 in 4 starts at Norfolk, 2.37 ERA in 6 appearances (5 short starts) in the AFL.   He just needs to figure out that major league ball and hopefully regain 2 mph of giddyup.   We could see him midseason or so.  

[Philip]

Tony, I want to express genuine gratitude for this process. By taking each prospect wanted to time,Tony, I want to express genuine gratitude for this process. 

Discussing the prospects in very small groups gives the opportunity to discuss in detail where each is and why.

The result is that everybody will know more about all the prospects. I’m really grateful, because I didn’t know anything about anybody except that Mountcastles defense isn’t very good, ha ha.

Do you have any idea who could be this year’s John Means? The real John Means must have given some kind of clue that he was capable of the breakout he experienced. Do you see any down-ballot candidate who might offer that same possibility?

[LookinUp]

23 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Here was ours: Red means total miss

8. Dan Klein - RHP - Discussion Thread
15. Oliver Drake - RHP - Discussion thread
18. Ryan Adams - 2B - Discussion thread
21. Tim Berry - LHP
22. Randy Henry - RHP (Traded to Texas for Taylor Teagarden)
 

I remember really having hope for all of these guys.

Klein and Henry were injury guys, IIRC. Adams may have been a knuckle head. Tim Berry's last name was Berry, and that was big at the time, lol. A family member's boyfriend grew up with Drake, so had to root that way. 

Crazy how many of these guys with decent talent washed out. That list is a case study in what we're hoping Elias fixes.

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, Philip said:

Tony, I want to express genuine gratitude for this process. By taking each prospect wanted to time,Tony, I want to express genuine gratitude for this process. 

Discussing the prospects in very small groups gives the opportunity to discuss in detail where each is and why.

The result is that everybody will know more about all the prospects. I’m really grateful, because I didn’t know anything about anybody except that Mountcastles defense isn’t very good, ha ha.

Do you have any idea who could be this year’s John Means? The real John Means must have given some kind of clue that he was capable of the breakout he experienced. Do you see any down-ballot candidate who might offer that same possibility?

Talk to me after the top 30 is finished and maybe I can give you some sleepers.

Thanks by the way.

[Luke-OH]

6 hours ago, Philip said:

Tony, I want to express genuine gratitude for this process. By taking each prospect wanted to time,Tony, I want to express genuine gratitude for this process. 

Discussing the prospects in very small groups gives the opportunity to discuss in detail where each is and why.

The result is that everybody will know more about all the prospects. I’m really grateful, because I didn’t know anything about anybody except that Mountcastles defense isn’t very good, ha ha.

Do you have any idea who could be this year’s John Means? The real John Means must have given some kind of clue that he was capable of the breakout he experienced. Do you see any down-ballot candidate who might offer that same possibility?

Not really, he was a command and pitch-ability lefty with only one solid MLB quality pitch (the changeup). I like his feel to pitch and his arm slot added some deception, but he really didn't look like anything more than a swingman type. So basically a 25 year old journeyman/fringe contributor type added 2 ticks of velocity and added a legit plus pitch out of the blue after having little development over the previous few years. That's tough to predict.

 

[Can_of_corn]

8 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Not really, he was a command and pitch-ability lefty with only one solid MLB quality pitch (the changeup). I like his feel to pitch and his arm slot added some deception, but he really didn't look like anything more than a swingman type. So basically a 25 year old journeyman/fringe contributor type added 2 ticks of velocity and added a legit plus pitch out of the blue after having little development over the previous few years. That's tough to predict.

 

Not easy to sustain either.

[Just Regular]

8 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

So basically a 25 year old journeyman/fringe contributor type added 2 ticks of velocity and added a legit plus pitch out of the blue after having little development over the previous few years. That's tough to predict.

 

Growth mindset blue ribbon for last offseason.  I imagine the place in St. Louis Means went/is going to again is Driveline-adjacent.  There's hundreds (probably thousands) of aspiring MLB arms who are essentially individual contractors working on their craft.  I would say union contractors but I think guys off 40-man and still in the minors aren't Union yet.

The game is in the process of digesting the best ideas from all these workshops, and then regimenting that for all their org's pitchers, but I think some of the best stuff in the next few years is still going to come from guys like Means seeking on their own.  It'll be for the cameras and metrics to discern which pitchers have truly improved a lot fast, but I do imagine Means-like surprises in the next couple years may be a little more abundant than usual.  Proof of concept has kind of been given by Bauer, Ottavino, etc, and in time data will drive pitch design on a larger scale.

Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik's book on the frontier of player development ended on the note of the main Driveline guy bantering on Twitter with Trevor Bauer about his dream of becoming an MLB pitching coach, and it being about the only thing he'd give up the lab for - I'm legitimately curious to see if that ends up happening.

[7Mo]

3 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik's book on the frontier of player development ended on the note of the main Driveline guy bantering on Twitter with Trevor Bauer about his dream of becoming an MLB pitching coach, and it being about the only thing he'd give up the lab for - I'm legitimately curious to see if that ends up happening.

This guy?

The Reds announced Tuesday that they’ve hired Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball to serve as the organization’s director of pitching initiatives/pitching coordinator. Boddy announced on Twitter that he will focus almost entirely on working to develop minor league pitchers in his new role with the Reds, but he’ll also remain with Driveline. The Reds also promoted assistant pitching coach Caleb Cotham, adding “director of pitching” to his title. Travis Sawchik of FiveThirtyEight.com reports (via Twitter) that the division-rival Cubs also offered Boddy a position, but he opted for the Reds’ position.

While Boddy will work more with the team’s minor league pitchers than the Major League pitchers, he’ll also “work closely with the Major League pitching department to ensure the pitching philosophies and protocols are consistent throughout the organization,” per the Reds.