Fangraphs Top 100

[VaBird1]

6 Rutschman

66 Hall

79 Rodriguez 

88 Diaz

99 Mountcastle 

That’s the same 5 BA has in the Top 100

the rest of the Birds top 10:

6. Hays

7. Stowers

8. Akin

9. Lowther

10. McKenna

 

[jamalshw]

The top-5 seem about right (though maybe not in that order), but it's interesting to me that Stowers is that high and so is McKenna.

[MurphDogg]

10 hours ago, jamalshw said:

The top-5 seem about right (though maybe not in that order), but it's interesting to me that Stowers is that high and so is McKenna.

Fangraphs had Stowers tagged as a 45 FV prior to the draft and haven't changed it, the Orioles have 11 players that Fangraphs has tagged as 45 FV or better (Kramer is the 11th). Fangraphs runs a rolling list, and they hasn't changed their rankings much since the middle of 2019, I certainly wouldn't expect these rankings to hold through the beginning of 2020. For instance they don't have Wells ranked at all (their list goes 34 players deep, down to FV of 35+). Last offseason they posted their off-season top 32 list (which is the basis for the current rankings, with draftees added and minor shuffling during the season) on January 28, 2019

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Fangraphs runs a rolling list, and they hasn't changed their rankings much since the middle of 2019, I certainly wouldn't expect these rankings to hold through the beginning of 2020. For instance they don't have Wells ranked at all (their list goes 324 players deep, down to FV of 35+). 

They don’t like Wells:

Rick: Why no love for Alex Wells? 1.83 ERA in the Eastern League at age 22 yet doesn’t make the Orioles’ top 35 prospects? What don’t you like besides the 88-91 mph fastball?

12:48

Eric ALongenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y…

12:49

Eric A Longenhagen: nobody does it at 88-91 from the jump. Just about all of these guys had big stuff at one point and made relevant adjustments as it dwindled.

12:49

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s hard to get outs sitting 88-91, most of the high school arms at PG National throw that hard.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-7-26-19/

[Luke-OH]

The funny thing is that he definitely doesn’t even sit 88-91 as a starter, that’s what he was in 1 innings relief appearances.

I don’t think Longenhagen had seen him pitch though. But I understand skepticism about no stuff guys, it’s not like he has a plus breaking or changeup either. 

[MurphDogg]

On 11/12/2019 at 2:46 PM, MurphDogg said:

Fangraphs had Stowers tagged as a 45 FV prior to the draft and haven't changed it, the Orioles have 11 players that Fangraphs has tagged as 45 FV or better (Kramer is the 11th). Fangraphs runs a rolling list, and they hasn't changed their rankings much since the middle of 2019, I certainly wouldn't expect these rankings to hold through the beginning of 2020. For instance they don't have Wells ranked at all (their list goes 34 players deep, down to FV of 35+). Last offseason they posted their off-season top 32 list (which is the basis for the current rankings, with draftees added and minor shuffling during the season) on January 28, 2019

Fangraphs published their first team top prospect lists of the off-season this week (the Giants and Arizona). The Orioles list will likely be out before the end of January, potentially the end of December if they release one-a-day, or a week or two later if they post one-a-day only on weekdays and non-holidays.

Their full 2020 list will continue to populate on The Board as they publish each list (it currently lists only Giants and D'Backs prospects).

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Fangraphs published their first team top prospect list of the off-season yesterday (the Giants), so the Orioles list will likely be out before the end of January.

2nd, you missed the Diamondbacks.

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

2nd, you missed the Diamondbacks.

You're right. My quick-edit was incorrect!

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

Fangraphs published their first team top prospect lists of the off-season this week (the Giants and Arizona). The Orioles list will likely be out before the end of January, potentially the end of December if they release one-a-day, or a week or two later if they post one-a-day only on weekdays and non-holidays.

As I recall, they did not post their lists on nearly that aggressive a schedule last year.   It was maybe 1-2 per week, and they didn’t complete all the teams until well after the season was underway.    We’ll see if they’re more timely this year, but I wouldn’t count on it.   

They did get the Orioles’ list done by Jan. 28 last year.   
 

[LookinUp]

Either Luke and Tony are way ahead of the curve on Baumann, or something else is happening. Nobody seems to mention him.

[MurphDogg]

On 11/27/2019 at 3:34 PM, Frobby said:

As I recall, they did not post their lists on nearly that aggressive a schedule last year.   It was maybe 1-2 per week, and they didn’t complete all the teams until well after the season was underway.    We’ll see if they’re more timely this year, but I wouldn’t count on it.   

They did get the Orioles’ list done by Jan. 28 last year.   
 

You look to be correct with the 1-2 per week schedule. They posted their 3rd team on Monday and have now posted on 11/19, 11/26 and 12/2.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Either Luke and Tony are way ahead of the curve on Baumann, or something else is happening. Nobody seems to mention him.

MLBPipeline has him at 9th in the org with a 50 grade, Fangraphs had him as a stock up 40+ in their midseason update, he'll at least be a 45 in their offseason list if not higher. Baseball America has Baumann as 10th. Baseball Prospectus has him as 9th.

I'm not sure who isn't mentioning him.

[Luke-OH]

I'd like to think I was the first person to notice some Baumann's significant improvements and note them, in this article.

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/05/03/orioles-prospect-hot-sheet-april/

He later in the season improved his slider and flashed a solid changeup, also touched 99mph. 

So I think everyone is on him now. 

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I'd like to think I was the first person to notice some Baumann's significant improvements and note them, in this article.

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/05/03/orioles-prospect-hot-sheet-april/

He later in the season improved his slider and flashed a solid changeup, also touched 99mph. 

So I think everyone is on him now. 

So why does everyone have him below McKenna? It really shows me that they're slow to move. That might make sense, as baseball can present a small sample size that can significantly mislead. OTOH, you're not pointing out SSS types of stuff with Baumann. I think they see the velocity but are still profiling him as a relief arm, so they're aware, but not really 'on' him yet.

It also says something about them, IMO, that they don't move guys like McKenna off their top 10s. 

On that note, Bowie just hired a hitting coach who focuses on a line drive approach. I'm kind of hoping McKenna goes back to Bowie and tries to hone that approach this year. We'll see.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

So why does everyone have him below McKenna? It really shows me that they're slow to move. That might make sense, as baseball can present a small sample size that can significantly mislead. OTOH, you're not pointing out SSS types of stuff with Baumann. I think they see the velocity but are still profiling him as a relief arm, so they're aware, but not really 'on' him yet.

It also says something about them, IMO, that they don't move guys like McKenna off their top 10s. 

On that note, Bowie just hired a hitting coach who focuses on a line drive approach. I'm kind of hoping McKenna goes back to Bowie and tries to hone that approach this year. We'll see.

McKenna is a guy with everyday tools who is under-performing them, but he's 22 and that could change. 

That said, only Baseball Prospectus has an offseason prospect rankings with McKenna ahead of Baumann. Fangraphs will likely have Baumann ahead of McKenna when they do their offseason updates, and BA + MLBPipeline already have Baumann ahead. 

There is some skepticism about Baumann being a starter in the majors. The arm action isn't ideal for command and his curveball + changeup are his two weaker pitches, so there are questions about ability to get lefties out. The results haven't bore that out, his fastball has been good enough to stymie lefties along with the inconsistent curve and change.