Rule 5 thoughts

[7Mo]

5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I’ve been watching some tape on Sheffield and wow, he’s a mess. I still think he could be a team’s second pick if the team made multiple picks. As a bring to camp and try to fix him flyer. He loses his curveball for games at a time, he has well below average command. He takes a ridiculous amount of time between pitches, like trying to gather himself. I’ve definitely softened on him. 

Do you have an idea when we could expect your Rule 5 posts?

[Luke-OH]

Just now, 7Mo said:

Do you have an idea when we could expect your Rule 5 posts?

So here’s my update, I have 30 players who are definite for a top 50. I’m in the process of going through another 100 trying to find 20 more. I have blurbs on the 30 written and will just need to expound upon them. The plan is to publish the Monday of winter meetings week.

[Luke-OH]

But until then I’m more than willing to answer any questions here, I’ve at least done a brief video and statistical exploration of about 250 players at this point. 

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

So here’s my update, I have 30 players who are definite for a top 50. I’m in the process of going through another 100 trying to find 20 more. I have blurbs on the 30 written and will just need to expound upon them. The plan is to publish the Monday of winter meetings week.

Thanks. I wasn't trying to rush you. From previous posts, I knew you were doing a comprehensive search which would take quite a while. 

[weams]

7 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

So here’s my update, I have 30 players who are definite for a top 50. I’m in the process of going through another 100 trying to find 20 more. I have blurbs on the 30 written and will just need to expound upon them. The plan is to publish the Monday of winter meetings week.

Outstanding as always. 

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

But until then I’m more than willing to answer any questions here, I’ve at least done a brief video and statistical exploration of about 250 players at this point. 

I don't guess there's any way of knowing if Elias is looking for near term help or long term upside, is there? 

Position player or pitcher? Starting or reliever?

What keeps Sterling Sharp from being valued higher? 

Did Trevor Lane or Kyle Holder make your list? (both NYY)

[7Mo]

Thoughts on:

Cristian Santana, 2B/3B, LAD

Brandon Bailey and Carlos Sanabria, Astros. From previous posts, Bailey's a no upside guy? Blah stuff?

Griffin Jax?

Zack Brown seems to be a safe choice, yes?

[Luke-OH]

25 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Thanks. I wasn't trying to rush you. From previous posts, I knew you were doing a comprehensive search which would take quite a while. 

Yeah, it’s easy to just grab the names you see mentioned elsewhere but I cast a huge net of all current and past prospects + statistically interesting players. It takes longer, but I was the only Rule 5 list on Nick Green last year who got selected. So it can turn up interesting players.

[Luke-OH]

23 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I don't guess there's any way of knowing if Elias is looking for near term help or long term upside, is there? 

Position player or pitcher? Starting or reliever?

What keeps Sterling Sharp from being valued higher? 

Did Trevor Lane or Kyle Holder make your list? (both NYY)

I’m not sure exactly what Elias is looking for but I’d guess up the middle position players. 

The just aren’t many ready to contribute starters left unprotected, which is why relievers are more common selections. If Elias wants to go with a non-traditional pitching setup with an opener or a one time through the order type, there are a few interesting candidates for that type of role.

Re: Sharp, Because he sits 88-91 and doesn’t have a real strikeout pitch against MLB bats. But he’s definitely on the list and fairly high.

Holder is on the list, haven’t dug into video yet so I’m not sure how high. Lane is not. Didn’t see much there.

[Luke-OH]

Also an overlooked name, IMO is Cody Thomas. Big power, big arm, above average runner. Respectable in CF. He’s got the Cody Bellinger swing without the Cody Bellinger bat control. Multi sport athlete until he was drafted, not as much baseball experience as his age implies. He’s basically hit the same the last three years while moving up a level (line drive rates and therefore BABIP is variable, but line drive rate is a noisy stat and probably doesn’t reflect true talent in a one year sample.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

But until then I’m more than willing to answer any questions here, I’ve at least done a brief video and statistical exploration of about 250 players at this point. 

You should set up a go-fund-me.

Seriously: the work you’re doing for free is what teams pay their scouts to do.

I wonder how the FO would respond if you approached them about some free-lance work and showed them your archive of work.

A wise FO would be delighted to be able to say,”please take a look at the Reds system and see if they have any undervalued fringe guys we can use.” An intelligent eye focusing on one area can be a huge benefit to the main guys, and because it’s only freelance, you would be seen as a supplement rather than a replacement.

as I wrote this I realized that that may be one underutilized asset. 

Seriously, how many baseball freaks who have good analytical skills do this as just a hobby? I can name you and Tony and Jon( late of much lamented Camden Depot)

doing piece work at $X per Y should be hugely valuable to the FO and gratifying to your daughter because it all goes into her college fund.

[Luke-OH]

The reason I don’t try to do more than what I do now is because currently it’s a hobby so whenever I want I can stop. Which I do from time to time. That flexibility and lack of pressure is what keeps it fun for me. I appreciate that compliment though.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Thoughts on:

Cristian Santana, 2B/3B, LAD

Brandon Bailey and Carlos Sanabria, Astros. From previous posts, Bailey's a no upside guy? Blah stuff?

Griffin Jax?

Zack Brown seems to be a safe choice, yes?

Haven’t dug into Santana yet, but I wasn’t overly enthused last year.

Bailey doesn’t hold great velocity but is a 5 pitch guy with plus spin from a unusual plane (being well under 6’ tall). He’d be a opener/one time through the order fit.

Sanabria and Yohan Ramirez are similar hard throwing Astros arms. Both t99 and are pretty wild. Ramirez has better secondary stuff and a little more consistent velocity. Sanabria is younger. Both can spot start and go multiple innings. My favorite hard throwing arm at this point is Wandisson Charles, he’s electric. 

Jax is super boring, he’s 90-92 without a major wrinkle. Fringe to average offspeed. Above average command. Maybe it is useful as a swingman/long reliever, but probably not. He’s as ready as he’s going to be, so that helps his chances.

Brown could get picked, but I really don’t know how he’s any better than Luis Escobar who just passed through waivers. Similar pitchers. 

The sleeper starting pitcher for me is Steven Fuentes. He was 22 this year, dominant statistically. He’s a sinkerballer like Sharp, but with more present velocity and command. He doesn’t have the frame or athleticism of Sharp though.

 

 

 

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Haven’t dug into Santana yet, but I wasn’t overly enthused last year.

Bailey doesn’t hold great velocity but is a 5 pitch guy with plus spin from a unusual plane (being well under 6’ tall). He’d be a opener/one time through the order fit.

Sanabria and Yohan Ramirez are similar hard throwing Astros arms. Both t99 and are pretty wild. Ramirez has better secondary stuff and a little more consistent velocity. Sanabria is younger. Both can spot start and go multiple innings. My favorite hard throwing arm at this point is Wandisson Charles, he’s electric. 

Jax is super boring, he’s 90-92 without a major wrinkle. Fringe to average offspeed. Above average command. Maybe it is useful as a swingman/long reliever, but probably not. He’s as ready as he’s going to be, so that helps his chances.

Brown could get picked, but I really don’t know how he’s any better than Luis Escobar who just passed through waivers. Similar pitchers. 

The sleeper starting pitcher for me is Steven Fuentes. He was 22 this year, dominant statistically. He’s a sinkerballer like Sharp, but with more present velocity and command. He doesn’t have the frame or athleticism of Sharp though.

 

 

 

Thanks. Great stuff.

[Jammer7]

@Luke-OH What are your thoughts on Buddy Reed CF (Padres AA) and Jose Fermin SS (Indians A-)?

For me, Reed fills the back up CF role and is a switch hitter with some offensive upside left due to his relative inexperience and constant swing changes in his 3.5 professional years. Every report I have read says he plays an excellent CF. I saw him play a lot at UF with Richie Martin. Premium athleticism, size and attitude. He may be a guy that just needs an organization change, and he is from Baltimore originally (not that it really has any bearing). 

Fermin is the son of Felix Fermin. Solid defensively according to one report I read in BA. Low A player with solid idea of the strike zone, but does not drive the ball much. Certainly should be over matched in a large role, but is he capable of filling a bench role? I would only consider him as a second round pick, but perhaps worth a flyer?