Going for the #1 pick

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, hoosiers said:

So if GrayRod and DHall both have to undergo TJ surgery and AR has a degenerative hip condition and retires in two years, are you still going to fire current management in 2023 if the major league team is not winning?  What if we still have a top 5 farm system?  What if Elias has pulled off some good trades and the team looks poised to compete in 2025? 

You will let him go based on your 2019 'line in the sand' regardless of extenuating circumstances?

I expressed an opinion.  Feel free to disagree with it.  Suppose it is not health issues, but that his picks over the next two years turn out to perform less than expected or mediocre?  Is he responsible then? I support Elias and a reasonable rebuild time and will wait and see.  But I am unwilling to say that is an open ended proposition just because we compete in a difficult division. .  And I am unwilling to give him 7 years only to be “poised to compete.” 

 

[now]

18 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Also I want to see if Santander can repeat his 2019 success before we start thinking he is a part of the Orioles future.  

Same goes for Hays, of course. To see if he doesn't go the way of Cedric Mullins, or Jeffrey Hammonds.

[backwardsk]

3 hours ago, hoosiers said:

So if GrayRod and DHall both have to undergo TJ surgery and AR has a degenerative hip condition and retires in two years, are you still going to fire current management in 2023 if the major league team is not winning?  What if we still have a top 5 farm system?  What if Elias has pulled off some good trades and the team looks poised to compete in 2025? 

You will let him go based on your 2019 'line in the sand' regardless of extenuating circumstances?

Are there publications that say we have a top 5 farm system?  I can’t access the subscription based sites, but from what I can see, we are in the 10-15 range.  
 

Sincere question, as it relates to your point about firing an unsuccessful GM (in terms MLB w/l) after five years if it looks like they may be competitive in year seven: do you believe that the Orioles let go of MacPhail too early?

[orioles22]

5 hours ago, weams said:

I do. 

It feels like a reason to be extremely cheap to me. Are the Orioles spending more than everyone else on other areas than every other organization while we are spending the least on free agents?

[Scalious]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that once you get past the income for ownership every dollar spent on free agents is a dollar not spent somewhere else.

There is a cost to playing politics(they are apart of greater system that is feeding them income).

Of course the money is going to be invested somewhere. The question is if is useful towards winning down the road, or not. Right now, probably with how far behind the times Elias has to catch up on. 

Edited December 28, 2019 by Scalious

[Just Regular]

59 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

This may be a bit off the topic, but do any of the draft gurus here see any super prospects emerging for the 2021 draft since we seem like a lock for the worst record in 2020?

If we're 0-21 we can just start watching Vanderbilt on weekends.  Their 1A starter Baseball America called the highest rated player to actually go to college in their rankings history and he was College World Series MVP as a freshman.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/kumar-rocker-named-2019-baseball-america-freshman-of-the-year/

Their 1B starter is Al Leiter's kid and also in the Top 3 projections from Fangraphs guys.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&team=

To boot Vanderbilt's SS is one of the top tier candidates in this year's draft.

[Camden_yardbird]

On 12/26/2019 at 9:53 PM, hoosiers said:

I don't think the Os plan could be any clearer.  

Build out a top analytics group.

Build out a top international scouting presence.

Build out a top player development team.

Be ready for the draft.  Try to draft in the top 3 until it is clear the organization is ready to improve.

Clear payroll.

Take chances on reclamation projects Ruiz, Hansser, Broxton,  and others to see if they have value.

Be patient as minor leaguers make their way through the system.

It's pretty basic blocking and tackling, but it forgoes unnecessary spend at the major league level for a couple of incremental wins.

What you said is no different than what I said.

When you break it down it's trying to develop the base of a team through the development of prospects.  Eschew the free agent market.  And hope to hit on draftees and fringe players.

Here is the problem.  That's not how successful small market teams operate.  The Ray's and A's both fill their rosters by churning through major league talent.  They both sign free agents.  They make trades for players who make almost immediate impacts.

The path the Orioles are taking right now, the "Astros Model" is only sustainable by large market teams.  Small market teams that follow this model flame out after a short term possibly competitive few years.

Also, I am not saying free agency is needed for a couple of unnecessary wins, I am saying it is a path for which you can get tradeable commodities that can being back meaningful additions.

My simple point is they were in the free agent market and we all got on their case for not accessing the talent in the international market, and now they are "in" (have yet to see real benefits) on the international market and yet we give them a free pass on not using the free agent market.  The more we fight this cognitive dissonance the better.

[Tryptamine]

 If you get #1, and yes I know a ton can change, you have to take Kumar Rocker. He has a combination of size, velocity and multiple filthy offerings. He's the kind of guy who could end up a top 5 pitcher in the game if things break right.

[hoosiers]

5 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Also, I am not saying free agency is needed for a couple of unnecessary wins, I am saying it is a path for which you can get tradeable commodities that can being back meaningful additions.

My simple point is they were in the free agent market and we all got on their case for not accessing the talent in the international market, and now they are "in" (have yet to see real benefits) on the international market and yet we give them a free pass on not using the free agent market.  The more we fight this cognitive dissonance the better.

Who do you expect the Orioles to sign in the free agent market?  We are projected as a bottom 3 team this year - so who is chomping at the bit to get a chance to play for Baltimore?  Theoretically, winning the bidding on a free agent player means outbidding everyone else - by nature overpaying.  And why sign a quality free agent or two if it is going to get us three or four wins and make our draft position worse.  And signing a free agent might block the growth of a young player/prospect - are you going to sign an OFer or 1B to possibly block Hays, Santander, Diaz, Sisco, Ruiz and others?

If a free agent falls through and comes cheap enough, perhaps we can sign and later trade that player, but this happens fairly infrequently.  The best value for players that might net prospects in trade is in the bullpen or on older, blocked or failed prospects like Ruiz.

The Rays and As are active in the free agent market because they are competitive.  

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

 If you get #1, and yes I know a ton can change, you have to take Kumar Rocker. He has a combination of size, velocity and multiple filthy offerings. He's the kind of guy who could end up a top 5 pitcher in the game if things break right.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Rocker and he deserves to be talked about as a top 2021 prospect, but I think the hype is outpacing reality at the moment. The insane Super Regional 19k no-hitter is a big reason for that obviously. 

But let’s think for a minute, is what Kumar did in 2019 any more impressive than what Liberatore or Grayson Rodriguez did? Is the stuff any better?  The answer on both of those IMO is no. 

Yeah, Rocker has better mechanics than Rodriguez, but less favorable spin and action on the fastball. 

Again, I’m comparing him to 2 top 100 prospects, so I’m not ragging on him, just saying that he’s not some lockdown 1-1 candidate.

[Just Regular]

8 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Again, I’m comparing him to 2 top 100 prospects, so I’m not ragging on him, just saying that he’s not some lockdown 1-1 candidate.

Yeah, any 19-24 year old about to pitch two more seasons probably has a ballpark 10-25% chance at a major injury being part of it.  I think the hype is partly due to the athletic pedigree and lineage - if he goes full Strasburg as a sophomore, the marketing machine  (if it doesn't already) may start to see him as a potential global brand.  The scouting readings will tell.

My memory of the 2008-2009 drafts after Strasburg's sophomore year was that as Beckham/Alvarez/Hosmer/Matusz were Top Four that summer, the buzz was already about Strasburg the next year.

I did just learn his Mom was a Terp and they met while Tracy Rocker was with the Redskins.

[7Mo]

10 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

 If you get #1, and yes I know a ton can change, you have to take Kumar Rocker. He has a combination of size, velocity and multiple filthy offerings. He's the kind of guy who could end up a top 5 pitcher in the game if things break right.

Lots of people believed that about Mark Appel and Brady Aiken too once upon a time. 

[Can_of_corn]

32 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Lots of people believed that about Mark Appel and Brady Aiken too once upon a time. 

Aiken's issue was physical.  No way to predict that.

If Appel writes a book I'll read it.

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Aiken's issue was physical.  No way to predict that.

If Appel writes a book I'll read it.

The point was that someone who looks like a sure thing isn't always a sure thing, by way of injury, shattered confidence, poor development, evil women just not as good as believed or whatever. 

Once upon a time, Brien Taylor was a sure thing. And a lot of smart people picked Dansby Swanson over Alex Bregman. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

The point was that someone who looks like a sure thing isn't always a sure thing, by way of injury, shattered confidence, poor development, evil women just not as good as believed or whatever. 

Once upon a time, Brien Taylor was a sure thing. And a lot of smart people picked Dansby Swanson over Alex Bregman. 

I don't recall anyone thinking Swanson was a sure thing.  A guy that makes the majors sure, I mean a star.