Fangraphs: Orioles’ Top 40

[Frobby]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-40-prospects-baltimore-orioles/
 

I haven’t read it yet, but will note that Fangraphs does a blurb on every player with a 35+ grade, and having 40 of those is a very healthy number.    More comments later.   

[MurphDogg]

For comparison, last year Fangraphs had the Orioles with 32 players with 35+ or better grades.

[Frobby]

I found this interesting:

“Baltimore appears headed down the Houston scouting model pathway toward video and data-heavy analysis. They’ve fired some scouts and hired Scouting Analyst Consultants. “Consultant” titles in baseball don’t have to be included on org ledgers so a team can have a lot of them and other teams/general folks don’t always know about it. How Lunhow-y things get in Baltimore is officially up in the air after the namesake’s grizzly end in Houston. Part of the reason baseball’s collective disdain for Houston grew was because of the scout firings, so maybe Baltimore (and Milwaukee) won’t go that far.”

I believe Luke’s position is “Scouting Analyst Consultant.”

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I found this interesting:

“Baltimore appears headed down the Houston scouting model pathway toward video and data-heavy analysis. They’ve fired some scouts and hired Scouting Analyst Consultants. “Consultant” titles in baseball don’t have to be included on org ledgers so a team can have a lot of them and other teams/general folks don’t always know about it. How Lunhow-y things get in Baltimore is officially up in the air after the namesake’s grizzly end in Houston. Part of the reason baseball’s collective disdain for Houston grew was because of the scout firings, so maybe Baltimore (and Milwaukee) won’t go that far.”

I believe Luke’s position is “Scouting Analyst Consultant.”

Interesting! 

 

[MountUrCastle]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I found this interesting:

“Baltimore appears headed down the Houston scouting model pathway toward video and data-heavy analysis. They’ve fired some scouts and hired Scouting Analyst Consultants. “Consultant” titles in baseball don’t have to be included on org ledgers so a team can have a lot of them and other teams/general folks don’t always know about it. How Lunhow-y things get in Baltimore is officially up in the air after the namesake’s grizzly end in Houston. Part of the reason baseball’s collective disdain for Houston grew was because of the scout firings, so maybe Baltimore (and Milwaukee) won’t go that far.”

I believe Luke’s position is “Scouting Analyst Consultant.”

Love this

If im interpreting it correctly, I'd assume it's mostly video scouting w/models applied, and local scouts?

[oriolesacox]

It looks like 12 of their top 40 Elias has acquired by draft/trade/rule 5. Also a couple names he acquired in the prospects of note portion. Keep stockpiling ME!

[jerios55]

So a few quick notes:

From last year, DJ Stewart, Jean Carlos Encarnacion, Richie Martin, Branden Kline, Dillon Tate, Evan Phillips, Mattias Dietz, Jean Carmona and Luis Ortiz came off last years 31 players.  (My count: 5 due to graduating and 4 due to poor showing).

4 players increased their grades: Grayson (45 to 55), Baumann (35+ to 45), Bannon (35+ to 40) and Rom (35+ to 40)

9 players decreased their grades: Diaz (50 to 45), Kremer/Lowther/Akin (45 to 40+), Hanifee (40+ to 35+), Carroll/Knight/Sparks/Cumberland (40 to 35+)

9 players maintained their grade: DJ Hall, Mountcastle, Hays, McKenna, Adam Hall, Greiner, Pop, Harvey and Zebron

So 18 additions: Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, Zimmerman, Bailey, Hernaiz, Bradish, Wells, Watson, Ortiz, Handley, Diplan, Rucker, Mattson, Peralta, Daschbach, Peek, Bautista

Several in last group were draft picks (including top 3 new guys 1,5,10) and several from Bundy trade, the 2 Rule V guys and at least 1 waiver claim (Diplan).  I don't know all the guys near the bottom, so add commentary to this last line if desired. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

So 18 additions: Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, Zimmerman, Bailey, Hernaiz, Bradish, Wells, Watson, Ortiz, Handley, Diplan, Rucker, Mattson, Peralta, Daschbach, Peek, Bautista

Several in last group were draft picks (including top 3 new guys 1,5,10) and several from Bundy trade, the 2 Rule V guys and at least 1 waiver claim (Diplan).  I don't know all the guys near the bottom, so add commentary to this last line if desired. 

Excellent post (including the parts I didn’t quote).   To me the most interesting addition was Wells, as a 40.     He was left off their midseason list and in a chat I asked either Longenhagen or McDaniel (who by the way just left Fangraphs to join ESPN) why Wells was omitted.    I got back a very dismissive response basically saying that nobody with Wells’ velocity has success in the majors unless they’re some crafty veteran who used to have better velocity but who has adjusted to a gradual decline.    It’s clear from their comments now that they still think Wells has an uphill battle to overcome his lack of velocity, but at least they’re now acknowledging that his other virtues make him someone who not only deserves to be listed but to be rated in the 40 FV tier.  

As to the rest of your breakdown, my takeaway is that they like the depth of our system but there aren’t many high upside guys.    
 

[MurphDogg]

55 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

So 18 additions: Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, Zimmerman, Bailey, Hernaiz, Bradish, Wells, Watson, Ortiz, Handley, Diplan, Rucker, Mattson, Peralta, Daschbach, Peek, Bautista

Several in last group were draft picks (including top 3 new guys 1,5,10) and several from Bundy trade, the 2 Rule V guys and at least 1 waiver claim (Diplan).  I don't know all the guys near the bottom, so add commentary to this last line if desired. 

Great post, just wanted to clean up the additions so I had it down in one spot.

8 were 2019 draft picks (Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, Hernaiz, Watson, Ortiz, Handley and Daschbach).

2 were 2019 Rule 5 picks (Bailey and Rucker).

3 are from the Bundy trade (Bradish, Mattson and Peek).

1 is a 2019 waiver claim (Diplan).

4 were with the team prior to 2019 (Zimmerman, Wells, Ofelky Peralta, and Felix Bautista).

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

9 players decreased their grades: Diaz (50 to 45), Kremer/Lowther/Akin (45 to 40+), Hanifee (40+ to 35+), Carroll/Knight/Sparks/Cumberland (40 to 35+).

My only real beef here is Lowther.    But Luke did say this in his part of the OH Lowther writeup this year:

“While the results were still there in 2019, the stuff backed up a little bit with the fastball more 87-91mph instead of 89-93 last year. At the reduced velocity, some cracks started to emerge. His walk rate increased as he pitched around hitters rather than attack them. Lowther is a smart pitcher and he is going to be as good as his talent allows, but it’s hard for me to see more than a backend starter.”   https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/08/orioles-8-prospect-zac-lowther-lhp/

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My only real beef here is Lowther.    But Luke did say this in his part of the OH Lowther writeup this year:

“While the results were still there in 2019, the stuff backed up a little bit with the fastball more 87-91mph instead of 89-93 last year. At the reduced velocity, some cracks started to emerge. His walk rate increased as he pitched around hitters rather than attack them. Lowther is a smart pitcher and he is going to be as good as his talent allows, but it’s hard for me to see more than a backend starter.”   https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/08/orioles-8-prospect-zac-lowther-lhp/

Lowther is similar to Wells, he isn't going to light up the radar gun so he is going to have to prove it again at every level. Those types of players never rank highly on prospect lists, which is why I am interested in seeing how they do this year in Norfolk.

[MurphDogg]

To give a sense of how tough Fangraph grades players and where the players will likely rank on Fangraphs Top 100+ when the list is finished, here is where the cutoffs for FV's were for their 2019 midseason list (that is, the lowest ranked player in each FV tier).

70 - #1

65-  #3

60- #14

55- #37

50- #106

The Orioles had 4 players with FVs of 50 or above: Adley Rutschman at 60, Grayson Rodriguez at 55, DL Hall and Ryan Mountcastle at 50.

 

[Just Regular]

My takeaways from first skim:

Their piece of flair is spiking Gunnar to 5th above Yusniel/Baumann to lead the 45's.

A bullish 45 on Stowers as well, a grade ahead of the 40+ group Kremer/Lowther/Adam Hall/Akin.

Grayson 55-50 over DL; DL is a year older, but will he stay a year ahead?

[ArtVanDelay]

Safe to say that we have the second best system in the division behind TB. 

[Pheasants]

I was surprised to see McKenna ranked equally to Diaz and Hayes, especially the latter.  He doe not seem to get the same respect here.